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Russia and China demand Iran halt secret nuclear site

#2
So the Iranians want to build ten more, and not even bother to deny them.

I suspect this big, fat, 'Sod off' to its two most powerful neighbours might concentrate a few minds in Moscow and Beijing. Beyond a certain point, it becomes clear that the man on the tall building really does want to jump, he's going to do it anyway, and if you try and hold him back, not only won't he thank you, but he might drag you off as well. Time to just clear the pavement so no bystanders get hurt, bring out the mop and bucket and wait.
 
#3
Seems a bit off from the Russians as they are the ones that have been providing the technology for Iran to be able to do this, maybe they can see that maybe it wasn't the best idea in the world after all.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#6
Russia and China will enjoy the idea that they have been had for fools by Iran which has been stringing them along while they obstructed the efforts of other nations (ones with some faint idea of ethics in their conduct unlike Russia and China) to bring Iran to heel.
 
#7
Iranian president first says that the Russians have made a mistake
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8389639.stm

Then announces they are going for heavily enriched Uranium.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8391133.stm

Whilst planning on building 10 more enrichment plants.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8385870.stm

This is starting to look like a sprint programme to a crude device. I don't think that the Iranians have the capability to build a plutonium device usable on a missile, but they could probably bodge up a uranium bomb suitable for a test detonation pretty quickly, and hope that it gains them some time and breathing space like it did for the North Koreans.
 
#8
Latest on this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8394707.stm

Looks like the Russians are swinging back towards neutrality on the issue.

Question-if medical Uranium is enriched to 3%, 20% is far too high.
Bomb uranium is 90%. 20% is too low- But a lot easier to ramp up to 90% than from a standing start.

So-If you have no possible use for 20% Uranium, except as a stepping stone to a bomb, why does Russia claim to see no evidence for a bomb programme?
 
#10
I'm rapidly starting to think that there are elements within the Iranian leadership that want to be attacked. To me this says that the conflict within Iran's leadership is far more serious than we can see from here - the street protests are interesting, but not very important in terms of regime survival. If they think that only on outside attack can allow them to hold on, it is clear someone in Qom knows the clock is ticking, and this could all come to a head very quickly.
 
#11
parapauk said:
I'm rapidly starting to think that there are elements within the Iranian leadership that want to be attacked. To me this says that the conflict within Iran's leadership is far more serious than we can see from here - the street protests are interesting, but not very important in terms of regime survival. If they think that only on outside attack can allow them to hold on, it is clear someone in Qom knows the clock is ticking, and this could all come to a head very quickly.
Creating an external enemy to unite the domestic public is a tactic as old as the hills themselves.

Acting like an enemy just plays into the leadership's hands. Not so?
 
#12
whitecity said:
parapauk said:
I'm rapidly starting to think that there are elements within the Iranian leadership that want to be attacked. To me this says that the conflict within Iran's leadership is far more serious than we can see from here - the street protests are interesting, but not very important in terms of regime survival. If they think that only on outside attack can allow them to hold on, it is clear someone in Qom knows the clock is ticking, and this could all come to a head very quickly.
Creating an external enemy to unite the domestic public is a tactic as old as the hills themselves.

Acting like an enemy just plays into the leadership's hands. Not so?
100% agree. This house of cards will likely come down of its own accord sooner than we think - we are best to leave them alone unless they do something beyond the pale. Even then, I honestly wouldn't rule out a military coup within Iran in order to stop the regime doing something foolish.
 
#14
re-stilly said:
If it did kick off it would be interesting to see which way Russia would fall.
The Russians aren't in Iran for ideological or political reasons. They're simply doing business.

If the US (or other) decides to kick it off without good reason, I suspect the Russians will get pretty pi$$ed off and turn it into an international crisis.

If the US (or other) decided to kick it off with good reason, I suspect the Russians will probably join in in their own way - as long as they are given sufficent warning to evacuate their personnel first.

It all boils down to what constitutes a 'good reason'. And, Iraq is the perfect example of what is NOT a 'good reason' even though many in the US/UK would have you believe differently. I wonder if London and Washington has bothered to learn from that????
 
#15
So where does that leave the EU?
According to the EU Action Plan on WMD:

Summary said:
The European Union must act with resolve, using all instruments and policies at its disposal, to prevent, deter, halt and, where possible, eliminate programmes for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missiles. (...)
In addition to preventive measures (multilateral treaties and export control regimes), there are, where appropriate, coercive measures under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter and international law (sanctions, selective or global, interceptions of shipments and the use of force, etc.). (...)
http://europa.eu/legislation_summar...cy/cfsp_and_esdp_implementation/l33234_en.htm
Paper Tiger?
Don't answer that...
 
#16
whitecity said:
re-stilly said:
If it did kick off it would be interesting to see which way Russia would fall.
The Russians aren't in Iran for ideological or political reasons. They're simply doing business.

If the US (or other) decides to kick it off without good reason, I suspect the Russians will get pretty pi$$ed off and turn it into an international crisis.

If the US (or other) decided to kick it off with good reason, I suspect the Russians will probably join in in their own way - as long as they are given sufficent warning to evacuate their personnel first.

It all boils down to what constitutes a 'good reason'. And, Iraq is the perfect example of what is NOT a 'good reason' even though many in the US/UK would have you believe differently. I wonder if London and Washington has bothered to learn from that????
I think it would require serious provocation for the Ivans to turn it into a superpower face-off; as you say, the Russians don't give a fcuk about the Iranians. It's nothing personal, just business.
 
#17
FrankCastle said:
I think it would require serious provocation for the Ivans to turn it into a superpower face-off; as you say, the Russians don't give a fcuk about the Iranians. It's nothing personal, just business.
But a sodding enormous amount of business, which it's in their interests to keep going. And Russia, like China, has an interest in keeping the Iranian thorn well and truly embedded in the American side.

What a wonderful geopolitical distraction it is having the regime in Teheran able to elicit such a grossly disproportionate amount of attention from Washington.
 
#18
smartascarrots said:
FrankCastle said:
I think it would require serious provocation for the Ivans to turn it into a superpower face-off; as you say, the Russians don't give a fcuk about the Iranians. It's nothing personal, just business.
But a sodding enormous amount of business, which it's in their interests to keep going. And Russia, like China, has an interest in keeping the Iranian thorn well and truly embedded in the American side.

What a wonderful geopolitical distraction it is having the regime in Teheran able to elicit such a grossly disproportionate amount of attention from Washington.
Then it will depend on how the Ivans calculate the profit/loss. While the Russians as a people are not exactly the sharpest tools in the box, Putin is another matter; I doubt that man has made a dumb move in his life.

If it comes down to Putin vs Obama, I would bet on the Impaler... :twisted:
 
#19
I agree about Putin, he's sharp as a tack. Which is why I believe he'll have calculated to the inch just exactly how far Ahmadinejad can push Washington before they start bombing. Moscow will keep their leash well in hand, playing it out only so far as they think the Yanks can't get their teeth into Iranian rump.

Having Iran there as a lightening rod for US aggro is in his interests as while Uncle Sam's busy 'containing' Iran, they can't also be interfering in the former Soviet sphere.
 
#20
smartascarrots said:
I agree about Putin, he's sharp as a tack. Which is why I believe he'll have calculated to the inch just exactly how far Ahmadinejad can push Washington before they start bombing. Moscow will keep their leash well in hand, playing it out only so far as they think the Yanks can't get their teeth into Iranian rump.

Having Iran there as a lightening rod for US aggro is in his interests as while Uncle Sam's busy 'containing' Iran, they can't also be interfering in the former Soviet sphere.
If Putin thinks he is calling the shots in Iran, he's deluded. Iran won't back down because Russia tells it too - they have their own agenda, and Russia isn't even close to being able to make any major difference too it, even if it were to pull the plug on its reactor contracts.
 

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