"Risk Intelligence"

Discussion in 'Staff College and Staff Officers' started by Tarkwa, Feb 11, 2010.

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  1. Greetings,

    Something I heard on the radio this week that I figure is worth sharing. Anyone involved in instructing will be familiar with the idea of “Multiple Intelligences” i.e. the notion that people have different areas that they are “good” at rather than the limited dimensions of the IQ test. The list seems to be getting longer too, and here is a new one, but an important concept. “Risk Intelligence” is the ability to make effective choices when faced with uncertain or incomplete information.

    As I understand it, the research originates from the medical world i.e. how do medics make critical decisions based on a limited diagnosis and within a rapid timeframe. Obviously a “risk intelligent” medic is a better bet than either a reckless or overly timid one.

    The research has expanded to the business world e.g. banking decisions etc. Interestingly one group that has been included in the study were professional gamblers (the successful ones!). Some people make a good living by being consistently successful with their punts. What is their secret? How do we catch this “stuff” and can we teach this awareness to others?

    It reminded me of early 70’s US studies on effective “point-men” or those on recce / scouting duties. Some scouts were notably more attuned to ambushes / booby-traps etc. The plan, once again, was to ID these attributes / skills to enable them to be trained out more widely.

    Several other studies touch on this topic and Norman Dixon (Psychology of Military Incompetence), John Hughes-Wilson (MI Blunders and Cover-up’s) and the declassified CIA study on the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Downloadable here: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/index.html ) are all important resources.

    It strikes me that this is profound stuff with important implications for selection and training all the way up and down the rank ladder, ranging from the aforementioned “Point-man”, through the “Strategic Corporal”, other parts of “Low Level Command & Control” and right up to Command and Political levels. Current inquiries may make for fertile research territory.

    Specific disciplines could also use this concept; Int, EOD, Medics, SF, flying are obvious ones. RI psychometric testing could be one of the best predictors of performance in the “fog of war”.

    Anyway, enough rambling. I don't want to give too much away about the methodology, but you may
    find it interesting to take the test (anon!) or read more about RI here: http://www.projectionpoint.com/index.php

    And no, I’m neither involved in this project or a journo, just a longtime lurker / occasional poster with an interest in these matters. The topic excited some discussion in a private newsgroup from my era and place and I figured it may be of interest here. It did not seem to have been specifically discussed previously on ARRSE.

    Regards etc.

    PS: Just found a book on the topic here: http://books.google.ie/books?id=h3Ps8yBGEkYC&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22risk+intelligence%22&ei=OV90S4rJKI-IygSy4o2tBA&cd=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false
    Risk intelligence: learning to manage what we don't know
    By David Apgar
    And a few more links:
    http://www.kmci.org/Riskintelligencemetrics.html
    And this is the guy I heard on the radio: http://www.dylan.org.uk/
     
  2. Thanks for posting this, very interesting, apparently I'm very accurate at being negative, not so hot at begin positive, at least I think that's what my results meant.