Actually you know what? The mods should just take this to the pooh-pooh thread.
Clearly no one is in the least bit interested in discussing the current political and security issues in Nigeria. The resident Africa experts merely wish to discuss potholes and the state of plumbing in Nigerian houses.
I was wrong to think anyone could get any insight from them regarding the players, the issues or the likely consequences with regard to an important nation in the region. Seems we just want to laugh at black people and their stupid ways.
Take it down mods, it's beyond saving.
If you bothered to read the thread you could deduce:
- Southern Nigeria is strongly tribal/client-based with a long history of extreme violence from state operatives (and pretty much everyone else).
- The system works by those at the top having money and power to keep their client base happy therefore you have in-built resistance to any reform along good governance principles which threaten that - which probably describes everything you could meaningfully do.
- In Nigerian terms this event was essentially business as usual, therefore it is very unlikely to have profound consequences. Government supporters will remain government supporters, anti-government protestors will remain anti-government and those at the top will continue to take turns.
- It is possible that some sort of Saro-Wiwa effect might be achieved if the protestors could somehow tap into the BLM zeitgeist in the west but extreme black on black violence runs counter to BLM's messaging so that's unlikely.
- The Chibok incident shows how long the western political and celebrity attention span is for things Nigerian so those at the top know that, at worst, they just have to make the right noises and a few gestures and it will pass, and very quickly.
- Like it or not, the working assumption of the rest of the world is that Africa's a basket-case and that's generally the safe way to bet. You're talking about Lagos and Lekki, which are relatively benign for a country that has Boko Haram operating in the north and places like Port Harcourt and Warri standing for the near-permanent state of banditry and low-level civil war that is every day in the Niger Delta. A few deaths don't really move the needle.