Recession Beating Portfolio

#1
Breakdown as follows:

Precious Metals 25%

Bear Note 22%

UK Long Dated Gilts 15%

Uk Medium Dated Gilts 8% (purchased in the last 2 weeks)

UK Short Dated Gilts 10%

Cash 20%

Points to note:

Quantitative Easing has been introduced specifically to reduce Gilt yields (i.e. drive price up).

BoE pension scheme sold all equity and property investments and is mainly invested in Gilts.

Gold expected to reach a minimum of $2000 / oz - no timescale.

No equitys held excect gold and silver miners.

FTSE100 expected to bottom 2000 - 2500.

Sterling could have bottomed.

Please note the above is not investment advice but is a representation of my portfolio.
 
#2
Silver_Bull said:
Breakdown as follows:

Precious Metals 25%

Bear Note 22%

UK Long Dated Gilts 15%

Uk Medium Dated Gilts 8% (purchased in the last 2 weeks)

UK Short Dated Gilts 10%

Cash 20%

Points to note:

Quantitative Easing has been introduced specifically to reduce Gilt yields (i.e. drive price up).

BoE pension scheme sold all equity and property investments and is mainly invested in Gilts.

Gold expected to reach a minimum of $2000 / oz - no timescale.

No equitys held excect gold and silver miners.

FTSE100 expected to bottom 2000 - 2500.

Sterling could have bottomed.

Please note the above is not investment advice but is a representation of my portfolio.
Agree on the FTSE & Sterling

I would suggest that all precious metals are held in the hand as it were and NOT in funds - a possibility exists that if Gold does start heading to $2000 or above, an ounce then Govts will probably try to nationalise it or control its sale.

As was done in the US in the 30's.

Good luck everybody!
 
#3
Canned Food (inc bottled water) - 50%

Shotguns and associatiated items - 50%
 
#4
chocolate_frog said:
Canned Food (inc bottled water) - 50%

Shotguns and associatiated items - 50%
Own 3 shotguns already. So if it comes to the "Mad Max" scenario then I'll utilise firepower to acquire food :D

Forgot to mention performance figures:

1 month - 2.95%

6 months - 16.75%

12 months - 12.95%

Jihad I hear what you say regarding physical and to that end I have physical gold and silver held in safe deposit at the bank.
 
#5
armchair_jihad said:
Oh and Silver_Bull I hope your stash is not in one of Gordons banks, get yourself a home floor safe or two....
Certainly not in a GB bank :D

Forgot to mention the performance figures are positive!
 
#6
armchair_jihad said:
I would suggest that all precious metals are held in the hand as it were and NOT in funds - a possibility exists that if Gold does start heading to $2000 or above, an ounce then Govts will probably try to nationalise it or control its sale.

As was done in the US in the 30's.

Good luck everybody!
I'm scratching my head about this one (because I don't fully understand it, not because I'm doubting you)

When gold was nationalised in the 30's it was directly tied to the value of cash, now gold is traded as a commodity what would be the effect of this?

I'm genuinely interested as I've recently started buying gold with part of my savings via Bullion Vault to try and protect my savings from the inevitable inflation which will follow. I have no big plans to make a fortune just try and protect what I've got but $2000 an ounce would more than double my investment!
 
#7
armchair_jihad said:
Thats not bad, where do you stand on currencies? I am going for the RMB/HK$ in a big way.
Not too sure about either of those! But the Euro and the Swiss Franc are kronked due to Eastern European lending. The Yen is probably shot too based on the following debt figures per capita:

UK - $15000

US - $36000

Jap - $157000

The huge figure for Japan is apparently due to their very own QE Programme 8O

I do know that currencies are traded very much on the Charts - so get your Tech Analysis hat on :D
 
#8
armchair_jihad said:
Many professional people I know are stockpiling gold coins to be used on the black economy should the need arise, in some sectors there is a growing lack of confidence in the stability of paper currency.

The danger lies in that if the market drives Gold above $2000 or more Governments will secure this robust asset, granting the real owner a iou, taxed no doubt at 83%.
Not sure stockpiling gold coins is such a good idea, just how would you go about buying a can of beans with a gold coin even if the mad max style apocolypse were to occur? Far better off in a vault I reckon where no-one can really doubt its purity. I have a few grand in silver coins (numismatic value rather than bullion but if the sh!t hits the fan who knows?)

I'm with you now on the repurcussions of nationalising gold, presumably its value would plunge as soon as anyone got wind and a whole lot of gold suddely became available on the markets, timing is the key I guess.
 
#9
I was asking about buying gold a few months ago. So have been following the price with some intrest.

Don't undersatand it , its a bit like the oil market with supply and demand but.


A few weeks ago gold sovs were at 169 quid each . Gold at a high then at $999 to the oz.

Now gold sovs at 215 each with gold at $928.

Advice recieved was taken and its a long term outlook - yes it will go over $2000 in the next months .


Buy a load now and then keep buying one or two each month.
 
#10
chieftiff said:
Not sure stockpiling gold coins is such a good idea, just how would you go about buying a can of beans with a gold coin even if the mad max style apocolypse were to occur? Far better off in a vault I reckon where no-one can really doubt its purity. I have a few grand in silver coins (numismatic value rather than bullion but if the sh!t hits the fan who knows?)

I'm with you now on the repurcussions of nationalising gold, presumably its value would plunge as soon as anyone got wind and a whole lot of gold suddely became available on the markets, timing is the key I guess.
Don't forget gold was only seized in the US not the UK. Worth holding in various formats such as:

PHAG.L / PHAU.l etfs
Goldmoney / Bullionvault
Physical in a safe deposit / safe / hole in back garden
Blackrock G&G Fund - unit trust of mining stocks
 
#11
old_bloke said:
Buy a load now and then keep buying one or two each month.
Pound cost averaging is always a good strategy. As is buying on dips. Don't forget gold was sub $700 a few months ago and it could dip back down again.
 
#12
I don't think WW 3 or an Apocalypse is due to kick off any time soon but a few grands worth of coin ,loose in your pocket ( or up your Arrrse for that matter- Colditz and the cigar tube charger :D ) as you make your way to safety.

I personally know of two families in WW2 who managed to get out a quite shitty situations (Italians escaping from Croatia are one). The old fella who was a kid at the time still tells me of how he and his family got away and how lucky they were.

Still I also see it as as good thing to have to pass down to the kids as I won't be really needing them.

Mind I am applying for my gun ticket next week. Fancy a shot gun, Kinmber and if the wife lets me a SLR.
 
#13
Silver_Bull said:
old_bloke said:
Buy a load now and then keep buying one or two each month.
Pound cost averaging is always a good strategy. As is buying on dips. Don't forget gold was sub $700 a few months ago and it could dip back down again.
Hello Silver Bull

Couple of probably bone Q's from an amateur here.

1. Where in the UK can you buy gold as a commodity?

2. What is pound cost averaging - is it something that someone with GCSE maths grade C (moi) could handle? :D

Cheers

Farmboy
 
#14
FARMBOY said:
Hello Silver Bull

Couple of probably bone Q's from an amateur here.

1. Where in the UK can you buy gold as a commodity?

2. What is pound cost averaging - is it something that someone with GCSE maths grade C (moi) could handle? :D

Cheers

Farmboy
Farmboy you need a stockbroker to buy the following (I use Selftrade and Td Waterhouse)

PHAG.L & PHAU.L are the ticker symbols for the Physical Gold and Silver etf's traded on the LSE.
You can buy Blackrock Gold and General via a broker / finanancial adviser or direct from Blackrock.

Buy physical from Baird & Co http://www.goldline.co.uk/

or goldmoney here www.goldmoney.com

I have used all the above - pound cost averaging is buying units or coin on a regular basis e.g. every month. If the price goes down you buy more.

Don't just look at precious metals though - look at the first post. Spread your investments across various asset classes. As with everything - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and don't base your investments on my ramblings!!

Edited to add:

Another area currently touted by Moneyweek is corporate bonds via the M&G Corporate Bond fund. QE should push bond prices up. It's an investment on my radar.
 
#15
FARMBOY said:
Silver_Bull said:
old_bloke said:
Buy a load now and then keep buying one or two each month.
Pound cost averaging is always a good strategy. As is buying on dips. Don't forget gold was sub $700 a few months ago and it could dip back down again.
Hello Silver Bull

Couple of probably bone Q's from an amateur here.

1. Where in the UK can you buy gold as a commodity?

2. What is pound cost averaging - is it something that someone with GCSE maths grade C (moi) could handle? :D

Cheers

Farmboy
I appreciate the question is aimed at Silver Bull and I'll expect him to come along and give you a better explanation, but here it is from someone with a Degree in Maths (trust me, your level of mathematics will have absolutely no bearing on your ability to successfully make or protect money)

I've used Bullion Vault to trade in gold, bit of pain setting up the account and validating but quite comforting too, it's all to do with money laundering laws apparently. It seems pretty good and very secure, they even give you a free gram(not ounce, got carried away sorry!) of gold to learn to trade with which is nice :wink:

I think pound price averaging is where you buy gold in small quantiites over extended periods, ie if you had £1000 to spend don't buy £1000 of gold in one transaction, do it in say 10 lots of £100 over say 10 days, trying to buy each time the market dips would make sense and knowing what the pounds value is assists you to do this. You can buy Gold Bullion on bullionvault in several currencies with no charge for conversion - which is actually a bit complicated; making me run around with my head up my a*se trying to work out where it's best to buy: New York, London or Geneva.

Hope that helps a bit and if any of it is wrong hopefully Silver Bull can set me right!

Edited to add, it's worth remembering that there are transaction and storage costs to figure in your calculations..
 
#16
Thanks Chieftiff and Silverbull for the info. I will proceed with caution but many thanks for the heads up on that - have noted your point about balanced portfolio too.

Cheers

Farmboy
 
#17
Silver Bull's portfolio structure is as good as any. Just beware of buying anything with embedded derivatives, you'll be paying a lot for volatility.

Commodities via ETF is a good way to go, but ensure it's a "pure", ungeared and non-managed fund if you want vanilla exposure. Make sure the fund is relatively liquid, you might want to be able to get your cash out in a hurry.

If you're working cash positions with brokers, make absolutely sure that you have cash assets "fully segregated" (separated from broker funds and other client fund cash). You'll thank me if the broker goes tits-up.

Ex-Sigs/Int.........but 15 years running dealing floors in London.
 
#18
Banker said:
Silver Bull's portfolio structure is as good as any. Just beware of buying anything with embedded derivatives, you'll be paying a lot for volatility.

Commodities via ETF is a good way to go, but ensure it's a "pure", ungeared and non-managed fund if you want vanilla exposure. Make sure the fund is relatively liquid, you might want to be able to get your cash out in a hurry.

If you're working cash positions with brokers, make absolutely sure that you have cash assets "fully segregated" (separated from broker funds and other client fund cash). You'll thank me if the broker goes tits-up.

Ex-Sigs/Int.........but 15 years running dealing floors in London.
Speaking of commodities, there are some bloody obvious medium term gains to be made, steel price for example is undervalued due to the collapse of the motor industry but this will pick up and there have never been so many engineering infrastructure projects just waiting to kick off. Now aside from investing in the processing and engineering companies how do you best go about gambling on this? ETF, ETC? via something like selftrade? or are there better ways?

Oh and whilst I'm here, what the hell is a Bear Note? I'm assuming it's some sort of bond but google isn't playing ball. I note that Silver Bulls portfolio consists of a 22% share so I'm also assuming it's a fairly safe investment?
 
#19
chieftiff said:
Oh and whilst I'm here, what the hell is a Bear Note? I'm assuming it's some sort of bond but google isn't playing ball. I note that Silver Bulls portfolio consists of a 22% share so I'm also assuming it's a fairly safe investment?
Only available through my asset managers - basically short FTSE100. I don't know if there is a short ETF available can't see anything on the ETF Securities site.

However your comments on the steel price are interesting. There is a Global Steel Fund listed. I'm a steel basher by day and sold loads of scrap last year for >£200 per tonne. Even though demand has dropped significantly the price is only down to circa £700 per tonne. The stockholders have also said Corus are putting the price UP. We supply a lot into the Petrochem market and this has been dead since Xmas. I reckon that eventually the maintenance projects will kick off and we'll be back on overtime.

Construction side is also picking up a bit but only on Govt funded projects. The residential market is dead. What line of work are you in chieftiff?
 
#20
Banker said:
Silver Bull's portfolio structure is as good as any. Just beware of buying anything with embedded derivatives, you'll be paying a lot for volatility.

Commodities via ETF is a good way to go, but ensure it's a "pure", ungeared and non-managed fund if you want vanilla exposure. Make sure the fund is relatively liquid, you might want to be able to get your cash out in a hurry.

If you're working cash positions with brokers, make absolutely sure that you have cash assets "fully segregated" (separated from broker funds and other client fund cash). You'll thank me if the broker goes tits-up.

Ex-Sigs/Int.........but 15 years running dealing floors in London.
All points noted :D
 

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