Recession Beating Portfolio

Discussion in 'Finance, Property, Law' started by Silver_Bull, Mar 15, 2009.

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  1. Breakdown as follows:

    Precious Metals 25%

    Bear Note 22%

    UK Long Dated Gilts 15%

    Uk Medium Dated Gilts 8% (purchased in the last 2 weeks)

    UK Short Dated Gilts 10%

    Cash 20%

    Points to note:

    Quantitative Easing has been introduced specifically to reduce Gilt yields (i.e. drive price up).

    BoE pension scheme sold all equity and property investments and is mainly invested in Gilts.

    Gold expected to reach a minimum of $2000 / oz - no timescale.

    No equitys held excect gold and silver miners.

    FTSE100 expected to bottom 2000 - 2500.

    Sterling could have bottomed.

    Please note the above is not investment advice but is a representation of my portfolio.
  2. Agree on the FTSE & Sterling

    I would suggest that all precious metals are held in the hand as it were and NOT in funds - a possibility exists that if Gold does start heading to $2000 or above, an ounce then Govts will probably try to nationalise it or control its sale.

    As was done in the US in the 30's.

    Good luck everybody!
  3. Canned Food (inc bottled water) - 50%

    Shotguns and associatiated items - 50%
  4. Own 3 shotguns already. So if it comes to the "Mad Max" scenario then I'll utilise firepower to acquire food :D

    Forgot to mention performance figures:

    1 month - 2.95%

    6 months - 16.75%

    12 months - 12.95%

    Jihad I hear what you say regarding physical and to that end I have physical gold and silver held in safe deposit at the bank.
  5. Certainly not in a GB bank :D

    Forgot to mention the performance figures are positive!
  6. I'm scratching my head about this one (because I don't fully understand it, not because I'm doubting you)

    When gold was nationalised in the 30's it was directly tied to the value of cash, now gold is traded as a commodity what would be the effect of this?

    I'm genuinely interested as I've recently started buying gold with part of my savings via Bullion Vault to try and protect my savings from the inevitable inflation which will follow. I have no big plans to make a fortune just try and protect what I've got but $2000 an ounce would more than double my investment!
  7. Not too sure about either of those! But the Euro and the Swiss Franc are kronked due to Eastern European lending. The Yen is probably shot too based on the following debt figures per capita:

    UK - $15000

    US - $36000

    Jap - $157000

    The huge figure for Japan is apparently due to their very own QE Programme 8O

    I do know that currencies are traded very much on the Charts - so get your Tech Analysis hat on :D
  8. Not sure stockpiling gold coins is such a good idea, just how would you go about buying a can of beans with a gold coin even if the mad max style apocolypse were to occur? Far better off in a vault I reckon where no-one can really doubt its purity. I have a few grand in silver coins (numismatic value rather than bullion but if the sh!t hits the fan who knows?)

    I'm with you now on the repurcussions of nationalising gold, presumably its value would plunge as soon as anyone got wind and a whole lot of gold suddely became available on the markets, timing is the key I guess.
  9. I was asking about buying gold a few months ago. So have been following the price with some intrest.

    Don't undersatand it , its a bit like the oil market with supply and demand but.

    A few weeks ago gold sovs were at 169 quid each . Gold at a high then at $999 to the oz.

    Now gold sovs at 215 each with gold at $928.

    Advice recieved was taken and its a long term outlook - yes it will go over $2000 in the next months .

    Buy a load now and then keep buying one or two each month.
  10. Don't forget gold was only seized in the US not the UK. Worth holding in various formats such as:

    PHAG.L / PHAU.l etfs
    Goldmoney / Bullionvault
    Physical in a safe deposit / safe / hole in back garden
    Blackrock G&G Fund - unit trust of mining stocks
  11. Pound cost averaging is always a good strategy. As is buying on dips. Don't forget gold was sub $700 a few months ago and it could dip back down again.
  12. I don't think WW 3 or an Apocalypse is due to kick off any time soon but a few grands worth of coin ,loose in your pocket ( or up your Arrrse for that matter- Colditz and the cigar tube charger :D ) as you make your way to safety.

    I personally know of two families in WW2 who managed to get out a quite shitty situations (Italians escaping from Croatia are one). The old fella who was a kid at the time still tells me of how he and his family got away and how lucky they were.

    Still I also see it as as good thing to have to pass down to the kids as I won't be really needing them.

    Mind I am applying for my gun ticket next week. Fancy a shot gun, Kinmber and if the wife lets me a SLR.
  13. Hello Silver Bull

    Couple of probably bone Q's from an amateur here.

    1. Where in the UK can you buy gold as a commodity?

    2. What is pound cost averaging - is it something that someone with GCSE maths grade C (moi) could handle? :D


  14. Farmboy you need a stockbroker to buy the following (I use Selftrade and Td Waterhouse)

    PHAG.L & PHAU.L are the ticker symbols for the Physical Gold and Silver etf's traded on the LSE.
    You can buy Blackrock Gold and General via a broker / finanancial adviser or direct from Blackrock.

    Buy physical from Baird & Co

    or goldmoney here

    I have used all the above - pound cost averaging is buying units or coin on a regular basis e.g. every month. If the price goes down you buy more.

    Don't just look at precious metals though - look at the first post. Spread your investments across various asset classes. As with everything - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and don't base your investments on my ramblings!!

    Edited to add:

    Another area currently touted by Moneyweek is corporate bonds via the M&G Corporate Bond fund. QE should push bond prices up. It's an investment on my radar.
  15. I appreciate the question is aimed at Silver Bull and I'll expect him to come along and give you a better explanation, but here it is from someone with a Degree in Maths (trust me, your level of mathematics will have absolutely no bearing on your ability to successfully make or protect money)

    I've used Bullion Vault to trade in gold, bit of pain setting up the account and validating but quite comforting too, it's all to do with money laundering laws apparently. It seems pretty good and very secure, they even give you a free gram(not ounce, got carried away sorry!) of gold to learn to trade with which is nice :wink:

    I think pound price averaging is where you buy gold in small quantiites over extended periods, ie if you had £1000 to spend don't buy £1000 of gold in one transaction, do it in say 10 lots of £100 over say 10 days, trying to buy each time the market dips would make sense and knowing what the pounds value is assists you to do this. You can buy Gold Bullion on bullionvault in several currencies with no charge for conversion - which is actually a bit complicated; making me run around with my head up my a*se trying to work out where it's best to buy: New York, London or Geneva.

    Hope that helps a bit and if any of it is wrong hopefully Silver Bull can set me right!

    Edited to add, it's worth remembering that there are transaction and storage costs to figure in your calculations..