Recession 2019 anybody?

#81
Been looking around with this recession thing in mind and there is definitely something brewing up. There is apparently a decline in the purchase of cars. Over here in the US General Motors announced the closure of factories and laying off of 15,000 workers - plus the knock on effect into third party suppliers. Likewise Jaguar/land Rover is looking to reign in 2.5 Billion due to a profits deficit with a decline in sales and will likely lay off 5,000 workers in the UK - again with the knock on into third party suppliers. Methinks though that the TATA master plan with Jag/LR is to take much, if not all eventually(once they have quietly met the covenants of the Govt sanctioned purchase), of the manufacturing offshore (Br**it anyone?) and still sell the product as a luxury brand.

Here in't US after mega sales of housing there are more than enough housing stocks to over supply the demand so we are starting to see some unsold housing stock and builders discounting.
GM fucked themselves up and let the Asians overtake them in leaps and bounds in the small car industry back in the 90s/early 2000's. Most of the market now is either small cars or huge 4WD's. GM also could have been a forerunner in electric vehicle technology but canned it for some reason and are playing catch up now.

With the gap widening between rich and poor, and the rich getting concentrated to a smaller area of uber rich, there's not enough people around to afford luxury cars (Jag).

I've worked 15 years in the car industry here in Australia, we're going through the same thing with all the manufacturers shutting up shop and moving out. Problem is, we don't have a huge selection of livable land or lots of unowned houses like in America, and the banks and government seems hell bent on keeping the housing market up to appease to investors. It's the only thing that the Libs have got going for them at the moment (They fucked the WA mining boom right up) and the banks couldn't give a shit about people wanting to own a home, they just want people to owe them money.
 
#82
Likewise Jaguar/land Rover is looking to reign in 2.5 Billion due to a profits deficit with a decline in sales and will likely lay off 5,000 workers in the UK - again with the knock on into third party suppliers. Methinks though that the TATA master plan with Jag/LR is to take much, if not all eventually(once they have quietly met the covenants of the Govt sanctioned purchase), of the manufacturing offshore (Br**it anyone?) and still sell the product as a luxury brand.
90% of all the cars they make are diesel and politicians of all flavours have done nothing but demonise diesel for ages now, that doesn't help. Also, I don't know how well TATA motors is ran, but from my experience with TATA Steel who I worked for, they made the good old British Steel days look like a model of efficiency, for they were an utterly chaotic company to work for.
 
#83
90% of all the cars they make are diesel and politicians of all flavours have done nothing but demonise diesel for ages now, that doesn't help. Also, I don't know how well TATA motors is ran, but from my experience with TATA Steel who I worked for, they made the good old British Steel days look like a model of efficiency, for they were an utterly chaotic company to work for.
The irony is that it is the EU politicians who encouraged diesel in the first place by setting very strict CO2 targets (which favors diesel) while having laxer non-CO2 targets like NOx, PM etc., which diesel sucks at. Hence from early 2000s diesel in EU grew rapidly. And now, all those mistakes are coming home to roost.
 
#84
I have no doubt we are heading in to recession in 2019 or 2020 I feel utterly pessimistic at the moment. It feels like the country is totally screwed up.
I fully expect a severe SDSR around 2020/1 and suspect from the Navy the medical services and Royal Marines will be cut significantly due to no herrick etc to justify us.
I am working as hard as I can to pay down mortgage and up skill my self to improve my prospects / position, what does not help is lack of redundancy calculator. I am not even sure if my afps 75/15 pension is safe
Yep. At my rank there will likely be no career extensions let alone promotions upwards. So that's me in 2020 unfortunately.
 
#90
Some speculation doing the rounds that the next recession could be ushered in by a collapse of Deutsche Bank.

Comments from the Bundesrepublik?.
Not sure if the Deutsche Bank is going to collapse, they've certainly come in for a lot of flak, plus the Frankfurt HQ has had a visit from the police, public prosecutor and tax authorities, who took loads of evidence away for examination. I suspect stormy weather ahead with the possibility that one of two members of the board of directors may get free food and accommodation for a year or three.
 
#92
DB will go bust. First Germany will break antitrust and merge it with Commerzbank. Kicks the can another 10y..
 
#94
Just what we need after 10+ years of wage stagnation. More ******* nowt.

It'll be a nice big global world war next. Better stock up on AA batteries, ibuprofen and baked beans.
 
#95
Jesus, you’re literally the stupidest person that posts here.

Earth posts better material than you.

Now we know the truth. The financial meltdown wasn't a mistake – it was a con | Will Hutton (Guardian)

Goldman Sachs Messages Show It Thrived as Economy Fell ( NY Times)

How Goldman Won Big On Mortgage Meltdown (Wall Street Journal)

http://fortune.com ( same story can be found here Goldman Sachs Admits It Defrauded Investors, Receives $5 Billion Fine — But Will Pay Much Less Than That as there may be issues with fortune.com links)
More on the latest Goldman Sachs scandal,

Goldman boss apologises for 1MDB scandal

Some ex employee gets the blame, but allegedly at the end of the day Goldman has bilked billions out of the Malaysian taxpayers.

I wonder how many other countries Goldman has run similar scams?.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#97
Likewise Jaguar/land Rover is looking to reign in 2.5 Billion due to a profits deficit with a decline in sales and will likely lay off 5,000 workers in the UK - again with the knock on into third party suppliers. Methinks though that the TATA master plan with Jag/LR is to take much, if not all eventually(once they have quietly met the covenants of the Govt sanctioned purchase), of the manufacturing offshore (Br**it anyone?) and still sell the product as a luxury brand.
Nail on head, JLR will cease to exist in the UK as a manufacturing base,
So whoever in Govt authorised the sale has overseen the removal of one of the few iconic brands mass producing left in the UK. Not only can we no longer make tanks, we can no longer build the pretend tanks for the Yeomanry to pretend they are tank crews in.
JLR will not build budget utility vehicles wherever it ends up (I suspect China) and we will no longer have that brand.
The downturn in vehicle sales in the UK is almost 100% diesel powered ones, thanks to the Govt penalising diesels which are now cleaner than petrol cars.
You couldn't make this shit up!
 
#98
I was reading the other day about this workplace "parking levy" which isn't going away either, charging employers, fining them in all reality £1000 per parking space. Large employers such as British Steel at Scunthorpe, or Liberty at Rotherham or some of the big car plants with thousands of shift workers coming from far and wide at times when alternative transport simply doesn't exist will be absolutely caved if this comes to fruition. My own employer at the steelworks in Motherwell has roughly 500 spaces in the plant, at a grand a whip wee Mr Gupta would probably just fold the business and leave the tax payer to pay for the clean up costs of the site and 150 years of nasties that steel making puts in the ground.

In much the same way councils make it impossible to drive into city centres and large towns and bring out guff like ULEZ and then wonder why folk simply sit in the house clicking orders from Amazon and shops close left right and centre. Politicians on all levels in this country are grossly incompetent on a level which is off the dial. Take for example the simply dreadful Anna Soubry who when she was a government minister had special responsibility for the UK steel industry during the 2015 steel crisis. A woman who actually said at the time that she'd really like to be able to help the folk at Redcar who were losing their jobs when SSI folded but, wait for this one, EU rules prevented her from doing so. Fast forward a couple of years and this woman is never off the telly espousing her views about how wonderful the EU is, even though she herself was the first person to lay the blame for something at the EU's door. I remember things like that.

We're probably "due" a recession going on the timescale when the last one was and I'm sure it will be assisted on its way by our politicians who purposefully pursue policies specifically designed to kill businesses and destroy jobs and remember this is under a supposedly business friendly "Conservative" government, so god only knows what JC's mob would bring to the table if they ever get in. So, while our elected rulers piss about with petty environmental laws and all the new stealth taxes and additional "levies" the big huge problems that are round the corner (country is too crowded, electricity generation capacity, totally shagged infrastructure, huge future disruption in the jobs market due to autonomous vehicles/AI eliminating huge numbers of back office, warehousing and all manner of jobs, crime out of control, NHS and pensions financially unviable). Problems any man or woman in the street can see a mile off. It's almost as if our politicians are wandering round with their fingers in their ears hoping they can keep the plates spinning for long enough that any huge issues happen when their gone. Bit of a rant that actually, but I'll run with it anyway :rolleyes:
 
#99
GM fucked themselves up and let the Asians overtake them in leaps and bounds in the small car industry back in the 90s/early 2000's. Most of the market now is either small cars or huge 4WD's. GM also could have been a forerunner in electric vehicle technology but canned it for some reason and are playing catch up now.

With the gap widening between rich and poor, and the rich getting concentrated to a smaller area of uber rich, there's not enough people around to afford luxury cars (Jag).

I've worked 15 years in the car industry here in Australia, we're going through the same thing with all the manufacturers shutting up shop and moving out. Problem is, we don't have a huge selection of livable land or lots of unowned houses like in America, and the banks and government seems hell bent on keeping the housing market up to appease to investors. It's the only thing that the Libs have got going for them at the moment (They fucked the WA mining boom right up) and the banks couldn't give a shit about people wanting to own a home, they just want people to owe them money.
The electric Cadillac is a Chinese GM product.

And it is kind of difficult for people to owe the banks significant sums of money if the banks won't extend a mortgage.
 
Nail on head, JLR will cease to exist in the UK as a manufacturing base,
So whoever in Govt authorised the sale has overseen the removal of one of the few iconic brands mass producing left in the UK. Not only can we no longer make tanks, we can no longer build the pretend tanks for the Yeomanry to pretend they are tank crews in.
JLR will not build budget utility vehicles wherever it ends up (I suspect China) and we will no longer have that brand.
The downturn in vehicle sales in the UK is almost 100% diesel powered ones, thanks to the Govt penalising diesels which are now cleaner than petrol cars.
You couldn't make this shit up!
Rant on:
Heard on the wireless the other day that Londonistan is now going to implement an Ultra Low Emmision Zone. Leading the world in its cut down of vehicles in a city. Which begs the question given the impending world economics of - why? Why should the UK be the ones who lead the way?
Surely that Khan chap should concentrate on the current policing/ moped/ stabby crimes first!

And another thing, airports. Couldn't buy duty free cigs when going to the EU. Yet in the EU, you can buy loads to bring back to the UK?

We in the UK (the policy makers) are mugs! We shoot ourselves in the foot over diesels..... Yet other countries will continue to make/ sell/ use them.
Sometimes I feel the UK is like the class brown nose swot always trying to please the teacher!

And breathe....

Rant off:

Edit: Wot he said in post #98.
 

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