Real reason for Hizbollah action

#1
Browsing through the papers today, I read that Dr John Pike of Global Security believes that the IDF offensive has taken place for one reason:

When Iran's reactor is bombed (by the US?) next year, there will be an attempt at retaliation - so the aim is to destroy Hizbollah before the bombing. The US are in on this, and Bliar has been told.

Tinfoil hat time or plausible? I reckon the latter!
 
#2
This is what everyone tells me, George W's mission is not yet completed, Iran will not be allowed to prosper, the Saudi's are with the US on this one.
 
#4
What Hezbollah have done is the normal MO for the region: provoke Israel into a war by attacking them, and then the "international community" will bail you out with a ceasefire when it looks like you're about to lose, and will apportion all the blame to Israel.
 
#5
I see

Farsighted Bush manipulates Hezbollah into going for a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers last November. Undeterred when they fail in their objectives he orders a major raid a month or so ago which succeeds.

Hmmmmmmmm
 
#7
Sven said:
I see

Farsighted Bush manipulates Hezbollah into going for a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers last November. Undeterred when they fail in their objectives he orders a major raid a month or so ago which succeeds.

Hmmmmmmmm
It's a bit naive to think this is really down to a couple of soldiers being kidnapped. They were dead within 96 hours of being lifted. I can see how the prevention of rocket attacks on N Israel would be a logical reason for the present action, but this operation wasn't launched as a knee jerk to the kidnapping, some considerable thought and planning went into it.

I'm torn as to whether this is purely a defensive measure to stop hezbollah rocket attacks, or whether it's also part of a chain of events that will ultimately enable a military contingency to be fielded against a nuclear Iran. They play the long game in the ME, so it wouldn't surprise me.
 
#8
Hizbolla say the Israeli soldiers are still alive,so do many humanitarian agencies,the Israeli's believe them to be alive as well.How come you believe them to be dead within 96 hours?
 
#9
RTFQ said:
Sven said:
I see

Farsighted Bush manipulates Hezbollah into going for a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers last November. Undeterred when they fail in their objectives he orders a major raid a month or so ago which succeeds.

Hmmmmmmmm
It's a bit naive to think this is really down to a couple of soldiers being kidnapped. They were dead within 96 hours of being lifted. I can see how the prevention of rocket attacks on N Israel would be a logical reason for the present action, but this operation wasn't launched as a knee jerk to the kidnapping, some considerable thought and planning went into it.

I'm torn as to whether this is purely a defensive measure to stop hezbollah rocket attacks, or whether it's also part of a chain of events that will ultimately enable a military contingency to be fielded against a nuclear Iran. They play the long game in the ME, so it wouldn't surprise me.
Whether or not the present fracas is down to kidnapped soldiers or not, that is the reason it kicked off in the first place - If the Israelis were waiting for something to happen they could have used last Novembers failed attempt to get stuck in and would not have lst 8 men
 
#10
RTFQ said:
....It's a bit naive to think this is really down to a couple of soldiers being kidnapped. They were dead within 96 hours of being lifted. I can see how the prevention of rocket attacks on N Israel would be a logical reason for the present action, but this operation wasn't launched as a knee jerk to the kidnapping, some considerable thought and planning went into it. ...
Do you mean that the thought/planning is indictated by the 'broadness'/intricacy of the operation?

I would hope the 'POWs' are alive, if nothing else in this current conflict Hezb need strong 'bargaining' chips. Unfortunately, Hezb have an appalling record with prisoners.
 
#11
Sven said:
RTFQ said:
Sven said:
I see

Farsighted Bush manipulates Hezbollah into going for a kidnapping of Israeli soldiers last November. Undeterred when they fail in their objectives he orders a major raid a month or so ago which succeeds.

Hmmmmmmmm
It's a bit naive to think this is really down to a couple of soldiers being kidnapped. They were dead within 96 hours of being lifted. I can see how the prevention of rocket attacks on N Israel would be a logical reason for the present action, but this operation wasn't launched as a knee jerk to the kidnapping, some considerable thought and planning went into it.

I'm torn as to whether this is purely a defensive measure to stop hezbollah rocket attacks, or whether it's also part of a chain of events that will ultimately enable a military contingency to be fielded against a nuclear Iran. They play the long game in the ME, so it wouldn't surprise me.
Whether or not the present fracas is down to kidnapped soldiers or not, that is the reason it kicked off in the first place - If the Israelis were waiting for something to happen they could have used last Novembers failed attempt to get stuck in and would not have lst 8 men
There's a difference between a spark and a cause.

Quite a lot happened between Nov 05 and Jul 06: Iran announced it had produced enriched Uranium and the US got to test the mettle of the UN Sy Council's opposition to a nuclear Iran, and perhaps guage the consequences of using a military option to remove that threat. While Israel isn't perhaps the american lacky that many think it to be, it would have very much wanted US support before hitting the Lebanon with such a large operation as it is now doing. I'm not saying it wouldn't have done it anyway, but the US acquiesced when Israel started this op, and despite what we think of the Bush administration, it wouldn't have been so supportive without good reason. I believe the reason was to enable Israel to take out Iran's main external player, Hezbollah, with a view to possible subsequent ops against Iran itself.

Even if that is a flawed theory, Israel itself has made much of the rocket attacks prior to and during this invasion - they seem to be hailed as more of a casus belli than the kidnappings.
 
#12
Arik said:
Do you mean that the thought/planning is indictated by the 'broadness'/intricacy of the operation?
Yes, absolutely. It's too soon to analyse the results, but we've seen a strong attempt at effects based warfare. Israel went after the mechanisms and infrastructure of the state of Lebanon, in so doing negated a lot of the progress made since 1990. it did so deliberately and then backed it up with a comprehensive military op against Hezbollah. Its controversial effects were deliberately sought, not flung together to teach hezbollah a lesson.
 
#13
RTFQ said:
Arik said:
Do you mean that the thought/planning is indictated by the 'broadness'/intricacy of the operation?
Yes, absolutely. It's too soon to analyse the results, but we've seen a strong attempt at effects based warfare. Israel went after the mechanisms and infrastructure of the state of Lebanon, in so doing negated a lot of the progress made since 1990. it did so deliberately and then backed it up with a comprehensive military op against Hezbollah. Its controversial effects were deliberately sought, not flung together to teach hezbollah a lesson.
RTFQ - The targets are already pre-planned and operational plans are always in place even in times of lull. The IDF is trained to forward think to the endth degree in terms of planning and operation. The intricacy of the operation and it's planning is not the consequence of some sinister plot as some may think here. The IDF fights on and around it's borders and so can always plan accordingly.
 
#14
RTFQ said:
Arik said:
Do you mean that the thought/planning is indictated by the 'broadness'/intricacy of the operation?
Yes, absolutely. It's too soon to analyse the results, but we've seen a strong attempt at effects based warfare. Israel went after the mechanisms and infrastructure of the state of Lebanon, in so doing negated a lot of the progress made since 1990. it did so deliberately and then backed it up with a comprehensive military op against Hezbollah. Its controversial effects were deliberately sought, not flung together to teach hezbollah a lesson.
I'm inclined to agree with you. But rather than go along with the idea that it's part of some grand scheme that takes possible US action against Iran into account (as argued by others), I'd argue that Israeli planners would have needed to be absolute numpties not to have a plan stuffed in a filing cabinet, ready to go. Now that I think about it, the campaign we've seen seems to a large extent to be what my spam friends call a "cookie cutter" or "one size fits all" approach, not really taking into account the intricate little variables which are hard to model in the planning stages.

Surely even the US Administration has enough sense to know that there's no way they could attack Iran without making matters in the Middle East incomparably worse than it already is. If nothing else, Pace and Abizaid went before the Senate only yesterday and told the world that they've already got their hands full.

Edit- Bloody Hell! I'm agreeing with Arik.
 
#16
[quote="crabtastic
Surely even the US Administration has enough sense to know that there's no way they could attack Iran without making matters in the Middle East incomparably worse than it already is. If nothing else, Pace and Abizaid went before the Senate only yesterday and told the world that they've already got their hands full.

Edit- Bloody Hell! I'm agreeing with Arik.[/quote]

Beware arguments that start in surely or clearly, especially nowadays :D (BTW, been to that creationist museum over there yet Crab?)

It's a completely separate argument, but at the end we'll be left with a simple choice:

Make matters worse in the Middle East - or - allow a Nuclear Iran.

As for the current conflict, I wasn't suggesting that the plan hadn't been drawn up as a contingency - I've never worked in LAND so I know how military planning works - but merely that the effects sought by the plan are hoped to last in years not months. As such, I believe that by design or happy coincidence, either the US or Israel have recognised that the effects of the present conflict will have benefits should we go in strong against the Iranian nuclear capability.
I believe that is one reason wht our governments have been slow to condemn the op, contrary to considerable public opinion back home. We potentially stand to gain from this when the choice in the paragraph above needs to be made.
 
#18
They have just hit around the Hadera area today striking further south then before. Distances are very short in Israel (size of the country).
The IDF is assuming that they will try and make an attempt, hence the area is 'on notice'.
Perhaps Hezb are 'saving their best to last' or such a launch may expose their operations more then they wish now that they are under closer scrutiny or it could be a 'bluff' (though I dont think so).
 
#19
Israel only fights to defend itself but when it's attacked or under threat of attack the IDF will strike hard - very hard, as they're doing now. They don't give a toss about Iran unless Iran threatens them, then regardless of what anyone says Israel will strike pre-emptively.
 
#20
I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Israelis and US concocted a cunning plan involving staged kidnaps or anything like that.

It is clear that tackling Hizbollah and Iran is on the agenda of the US. The Israeli offensive - the US would have been in the loop, if not involved - provides a useful pretext for clearing out Hizbollah...however things are not so straightforward in real life....

The Israelis do not want to see Iran with a nuke....it would end their nuclear monopoly in the region and, although the Iranians are unlikely to use a nuke on Israel (despite the deliberately mistranslated speech on "eradicating the injustice of Palestine from history = wiping Israel off the map of the world") Israel's sense of discomfort can be understood.

However, airstrikes on Iran would be absolute madness and make things many times worse.
 

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