I'm not sure any of the politicos have that much grip on the reigns any more.
The foot soldiers they used to control have degenerated into street gangs with a bit of history behind them.
I can't see McGuiness et al being too chuffed at IRA shenanigans - they probably (rightly) think that they reduce their standing in the South, which is their next target constituency. Political power is what they're after now. Armed violence loses them votes and influence.
Likewise Paisley the thunderbox won't be too chuffed at Loyalist misbehaviour as it'll lose him what middle ground there is in the Province.
Something very drastic indeed would need to happen to re-ignite the place. The start conditions for an insurrection / armed insurgency / whatever you want to call it just aren't there.
aaand there's the rub. Loyalists and Fenians all rolling in filthy drug and organised crime lucre. About as much chance of stopping that without bloodshed and a return to the old ways as we are in stopping the Afghan opium trade.
Maybe so Western, But they've not got anything to focus on. The general living standards and social inequalities have eased more into something approaching mainland UK. Left footers aren't treated as untermensch any more (to my knowledge, but I might be a touch out of date), and the prods aren't fired up by hellfire and brimstone the way that they used to.
Granted, the oirish like a scrap, but they don't have a cause to scrap for, and don't have the good ol' US to act as QM / Finance.
Not totally disagreeing but there was a 'Dream Time' in NI in the early to mid 1960s. The IRA had shot it's bolt in the Border Campaign, life was economically much better for the majority of people in the UK including NI and the Republic was going down the toilet. Policemen used to be from and live within the Nationalist areas but by 1968 it was back to the Civil War in the blink of an eye. You see, they actually enjoy it.
The short answer is no, it is highly unlikely to go back to the way it was before the ceasefire. There is an ongoing campaign by both CIRA and RIRA but they have never been able to get the Nat population behind them and struggle to recruit reliable people.
Although this isn't an isolated incident (they have mounted a number of attacks against the PSNI over the past few months) they still struggle to achieve ther ultimate aim of killing members of the SF and their attacks are still infrequent. The PSNI can cope with the current level of violence without Mil support. If anything the Dissidents are getting weaker and not stronger and they are certainly not the threat they were 10 years ago.
Perhaps the real question of the day is when is Paisley going to get the Loyalist gangs of the streets and stop their drug business
If it does 'kick off again' as someone enquired, will we see Bliar and the revolting, perma-tanned, self-righteous, unctious, sanctimonious, one-time quasi terrorist Hain explaining why it isn't their fault? Pair of shit*s!
The Paisleys (Jnr and Snr) have both proved themselves to be pretty unpleasant religous bigots over the years, but they have always condemned violence (on both sides) and have had nothing to do with loyalist terrorist scum. Their influence on UVF, UDA, UFF et al is NIL.
Were that the same could be said for Adams and his crowd. If PIRA wanted to stop RIRA & CIRA they could have done so long ago.