Rattling The Saber At China?

From The Straits Times, July 1, 2004:

"In an exercise codenamed Operation Summer Pulse 04, [the United States] is expected to arrange for an unprecedented seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CGs) to rendezvous in waters a safe distance away from the Chinese coastline -- but still within striking distance -- after mid-July.


"Sources in Beijing say China's reading is that Summer Pulse is being mounted with it as the target audience, a suspicion reinforced by reports that Taiwanese forces are slated tojoin in the drill.


"..a Chinese military source...[said]:

"'Even now, China can easily taken on two CSGs,'...but conceded that there was no way it could face seven all at the same time.

"This means that if China has to wage war over Taiwan, it has to be able to land and seize control of the island within the first 30 days.

"Otherwise, under the [new US Fleet Response Plan], six CSGs may well arrive to join in the battle."

"US Plans Huge Show Of Force In Pacific," by Ching Cheong


Murray Rothbard wrote a satirical essay in which he demanded that the United States impose minimum standards of democratic civilization by invading the rest of the planet forthwith. Sometimes I get a notion that he has been taken literally.

China is one of US fedgov's biggest creditors. A case could be made that it loaned us the money for this "Summer Pulse" exercise.
Interesting. I do believe that if it came down to it, the slit eyes would actually kick the crap out of the good ole US of A. Numerical superiority and an indoctrinated self belief would win over the reliance on technology and mobile McDonalds Battalions. Tom Clancy even wouldnt put a bet on the outcome.

Does the US understand the word overstretch?
I think I'd have to agree. The Chinese have many more pieces of military kit than the US has precision guided weapons, so after a while their technological edge would disappear. And while US kit is better it's not good enough to cope with the number of troops and vehicles that would hit them.
The Chinese play the long game. They're not ready to storm Taiwan's beaches just yet, or to take on anyone else unless they're forced into it. Give it a decade and it might be a different story. Give it 20 years and the impact of capitalism and the global economy on the population at large might have pulled their fangs to some extent.
One_of_the_strange said:
And while US kit is better it's not good enough to cope with the number of troops and vehicles that would hit them.
OOTS, what're these Chinese troops & vehicles going to do to the US carriers?
Pork_Pie said:
One_of_the_strange said:
And while US kit is better it's not good enough to cope with the number of troops and vehicles that would hit them.
OOTS, what're these Chinese troops & vehicles going to do to the US carriers?
Nothing - but I meant to refer to a more general US-China punchup rather than the specific ex mentioned in the article. The Chinese Navy as quite large though and getting bigger so getting close to China could get quite dodgy.
However gents, with 12 CSGs in the vicinty the Chinese would get all their Naval forces blown away.

12 CSGs! That is an awesome amount of Naval hardware.

We could help out, send our pidly few ships and bath tubs with planks. If anything the Chinese would piss themselves laughing :roll:
dui-lai said:
However gents, with 12 CSGs in the vicinty the Chinese would get all their Naval forces blown away.

12 CSGs! That is an awesome amount of Naval hardware.

We could help out, send our pidly few ships and bath tubs with planks. If anything the Chinese would urine themselves laughing :roll:
They would do more than pi** themselves if we also sent a couple of hunter-killers............ 8)
"...the U.S. is proceeding to pull back all U.S. troops from the de-militarized zone in Korea, to transfer about a third of all U.S. troops in Korea to Iraq, to base in Korea a dozen F-117 Stealth fighter-bombers and to begin Operation Summer Pulse -- the simultaneous deployment of seven aircraft-carier strike groups to 'demonstrate the ability of the Navy to provide credible combat power across the globe.'

"...virtually every warship in the Navy that is able to go to sea wil be at sea..mostly in the Pacific.

"That probably means we are about to apply the Bush Doctrine to some other 'rogue state.'

"...[T]he (USA) war-gamers are thinking 'blockade.'

"A Chinese naval blockade could bring Taiwan to its knees with relative ease and minimal international protest....


"How to enforce? With Russian-made super-sonic sea-skimming anti-ship missiles launched by Russian-made submarines and Russian-made warships.

"At present, U.S. warships have no effective defense against the Russian-made 'Sunburn' and 'Yakhont,' both of which travel at Mach 2.5 and execute terminal maneuvers specifically designed to overcome U.S. warship defenses.

"China also has several dozen long-range Russian-made Su-30MKK Flanker naval fighters equipped with the Russian-made X-31 supersonic anti-ship missile.

"Recall that the Brits very nearly lost the Falklands War because of the Exocet..The Argentines had only five Exocets -- and no long-range aircraft -- but sank to British ships with them...


"Lets just hope the real neocrazy purpose of Operation Summer Pulse is to get the Burmese junta to release Aung San Suu Kyi."

"Crisis In Asia," by Gordon Prather
Chinese navy isn't exactly experianced and 2nd hand russian submarines are not really up to much if push comes to shove the yanks can and will kill anything slitty eyed above or below the Sea
tough luck on there taiwnaese allies thoug :lol: :twisted:
"...according to Taiwanese media, for the first time since 1979, the US sent a 60-man team to take part in the island's annual Hankwang military exercise this year.

"Similarly, Taiwanese troops, also for the first time, will take part in Operation Summer Pulse 04 in the West Pacific next month."

"US Rethink Of Taiwan Status Could Spark Chaos" by Ching Cheong

Looks as if China has got some military maneuvers of its own pending. This is also from The Straits Times, July 5, 2004:

"China's largest military exercises of the year, to take place this month, are meant to send a 'substantial warning' to Taiwan separatists, state (Beijing) media said yesterday.

"The annual summer exercises will be held this year on Dongshan Island off the Chinese coast and include air, sea and land forces, China Youth Daily said.

"Dongshan Island...is less than 280 km west of Taiwant's Penghu Island.

"The report did not say...how many soldiers would take part in the amphibious mock Taiwan-landing backed by guided missiles, but the New Express Daily said last month that 18,000 troops would be involved.

"...Beijing has spent heavily in recent years on its navy, building...forces that could help blockade Taiwan.


"Meanwhile, Taiwan's Defence Ministry has confirmed for the first time tht the island has drawn up plans for a military offensive against China...

"China Show Of Strength For Taipei"
Interesting article on this topic in this week's Jane's Defence Weekly. Seems that Taiwan is finding it harder and harder to counter China's growing real military strength.

In other words, China now has more than mere numbers of men and kit: its kit is getting better and better.

Taiwan's air force now has no better plan in the event of a Chinese attack, it seems, than to send its blokes on suicide missions to engage in relatiatory bombing missions. Taiwan does not have a surface-to-surface missile capability of its own with which to retaliate in a more appropriate way.

JDW estimates that China will be ready and able to launch a successful war of reconquest against Taiwan by 2006.
2006? Just in time for the withdrawal of what's left of our overstretched, under-resourced army from Iraq............if you believe Obergruppenfuhrer Hans Short. So......no 24-month gap between deployments, then? :cry:
"China's 'Assassin's Mace' Meets The Taiwanese Scorpion"

This is a paper by a Dr. John Hill, described as "an independent security analyst based in the UK."

He notes that the Chinese government is mindful of the persistent qualitative inferiority of its forces to the USA. He says that it is exploring "asymmetric warfare" concepts aimed at furnishing a low-cost means of altering the balance of forces.

He says that Chinese military literature refers to this equalizer as the "Assassin's Mace." That poetic-sounding phrase is "a label for an idea, rather than for a particular weapon."

He then outlines specific areas in which they hope to find their asymmetric warfare breakthrough:

1. Supersonic anti-shipping cruise missiles.

2. Submarines. He says that China has been spending heavily on new -- not used -- Russian submarines of the "Kilo"-class as well as its own "increasingly capable Song-class."

3. Anti-satellite lasers. I am no expert in these matters, but I get the impression that US military dominance is heavily tied to satellite reconnaissance.

4. Computer hacking directed against US financial and commercial systems.


A venerable Chinese curse, disguised in the subtle Oriental fashion as a benediction, says: "May you live in interesting times."

Looks to me as if the times may be about to get pretty interesting.
Sorry to disappoint you N_W_D, but if Rear Adm. John D. Stufflebeem, the US Navy's chief of plans and operations is to be believed,

The exercise, dubbed Summer Pulse '04, is the first test of the Navy's new approach to managing its combat readiness.
The Navy is abandoning its traditional approach of regularly scheduled, six-month deployments and instead will have ships and sailors prepared to go as world events demand.
The Navy wants to be able to send six carrier battle groups in less than 30 days to handle crises anywhere in the world, with two additional carrier groups ready to sail within three months.
The Summer Pulse '04 exercise will include the areas of responsibility of all five regional U.S. warfighting commands: the Pacific, European, Southern, Central and Northern regions.
Though presumably it will mean that the Shrub can wave his big stick more easily and (probably use it) without needing to plan as far in advance.
Source http://edition.cnn.com/2004/US/07/08/navy.exercise.ap/index.html
From the Asia Times, 23 July 2004:

"...former Chinese president Jiang Zemin, now the chairman of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, was quoted...as in essence promising to attack Taiwan ... before or around the year 2020....


"The commander of US Pacific Forces, Admiral Thomas B. Fargo, was in Beijing on a routine regional tour, and he was warned on Friday by Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing to stop military exchanges and arm sales to Taiwan. This is precisely what Li told US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice Last week. Li said nothing about Summer Pulse 2004..


"...increased defense spending by China...is beginning to erode the qualitative superiority of Taiwan's Air Force, according to the US Department of Defense's most recent report to the US Congress on China's military capabilities.

"'The [Taiwanese] Air Force's recently completed transition from 1960s fighter aircraft to modern 'fourth generation' [advanced aircraft such as the US-made F-16 or the French-made Mirage 2000-5] units retains many of the qualitative advantages over the [People's Liberation Army Air Force]. However, fighter pilot shortages are stressing personnel, and traning is conservative and overemphasizes defensive counter-air missions.'...

"Correcting China's relative lack of 'fourth generation' fighter aircraft is one of Beijing's top priorities.....[T]he PLAAF will probably not have to go begging to acquire advanced weapons systems."

"China: Military Might And Political Messages," by Mac William Bishop
Lots of chat about Russian eqpt...what about the Chinese fear of Russian intervention...would they not keep a sizeable portion of their Armed Forces on Border watch. I acknowledge the two are no longer Ideological buddies .....but still there is an element of mistrust. 8)


One_of_the_strange said:
I think I'd have to agree. The Chinese have many more pieces of military kit than the US has precision guided weapons, so after a while their technological edge would disappear. And while US kit is better it's not good enough to cope with the number of troops and vehicles that would hit them.
But when the technologically superior US kit is intelligently used to take out Chinese C3, the manpower/basic kit advantage is reduced and even eliminated. I wouldn't want to call it myself though.
Get a couple of outboard boat motors and strap them to whichever end of Taiwan you fancy, lift the anchor and re-position Taiwan off the coast of Scarborough. Now thats a plan! Lets see the Chinese counter that!
I've thought about the Russian factor, too.

Antagonistic countries may temporarily hold their mutual hostility in check while they deal with a common enemy. One thinks, for instance, of the USA and UK making common cause with the USSR to smash the Third Reich.

I suppose the Russian and Chinese governments have it on their long term agendas to settle accounts with each other. But, in the meantime, they might be persuaded to try to undermine the USA first.


China has gone from oil self-sufficiency to becoming a major importer. Barring some unforseen technological breakthrough, the Middle East is going to be where the oil is at. The USA government is intent on making the Middle East into an American province. China is concurrently attempting to cultivate the Middle Eastern governments.

The USA has attempted to dictate terms to, and has threatened war against, a bordering client state, North Korea.

The USA is nurturing the separatist inclinations of a renegade province, Taiwan.

The USA is conducting large scale naval operations near Chinese waters, with the forces of that same renegade province.

The USA is the architect, and sole beneficiary, of an exploitative monetary arrangement such that China is obliged to export huge quantities of valuable merchandise in exchange for huge amounts of dubious, US dollar-denominated Treasury bonds.


The USA has thrown its weight behind the eastward expansion of NATO.

The USA was behind an attack on the Slavic little brothers in Serbia and has similar designs elsewhere in the Balkans.

The "Project for a New American Century," which includes such luminaries as Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Feith, et al, has declared pretty explicitly that the USA shall rule the world and they shall rule the USA.

The current USA president has declared that he reserves the right to launch preemptive strikes against any nation he suspects of mere hostile intentions. He also says it's his prerogative similarly to attack any government whose domestic policies do not comport with his ideas of "democracy" and "freedom."

I think it's possible that Beijing and Moscow might decide that dealing with the USA menace is more urgent than the menace each represents to the other.

Russia might give China a free hand to settle the fate of Taiwan.

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