Property price set to go way south

Discussion in 'The Intelligence Cell' started by Ciggie, Oct 15, 2010.

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  1. I know there are some very intelligent people who look at arrse, so I would welcome some comments on my thought that if about a million people went into negative equity, what would happen, and if said million or so ganged up and said 'Screw you, Mr Banker' and collectively stood together, rather than be thrown on the streets, or the local government as is more often the case, what would happen then ?
  2. Then there would be a lot of very busy bailiffs throughout the country. Long term the UK housing market doesn't act the same way as many other parts of the world, the UK is a crowded island with lots of demand for new homes and bugger all supply. Not like the US where they have the land and will not miss half of Detroit being bulldozed, or Germany with stagnant population growth. The banks will throw out all those people who lied on their self select mortgage about earning £300k working as a vending machine technician; and replace them with those who didn't gear up to their eyeballs in the belief perpetuated by ZanuLabour that property prices would never dip. The banks will get some of their money back, prices will stabilise and then creep upwards again.
  3. Fantasy - the Lender owns the vast proportion of the property and we could never get a million people to do anything collectively in this country ( apart from vote for the X Factor).

    Essentially, "the Banks" aren't the lender ........ people like me are. I have cash on deposit at a lender ( getting sod all for it and thinking about going to a better investment - this is in part one of the reasons that Banks aren't loaning money, people like me are putting it elsewhere). You agreed to the terms of the mortgage to buy your Barrett home, so cough up or sell. Remember, not all depositors are wealthy, think of the young child diligently saving money each week - are you happy to steal her £500 "life savings" because you were foolish enough to blow £5,000 on junk from Argos?

    So essentially - would you be happy if a mongtard mate of yours borrowed £1,000 to buy a car he can't afford to pay for but refuses to sell to pay you back. He then talks to other mongs with similiar arrangements and they all agree not to repay the cash.

    You would be prepared to walk away and lose your £1,000 would you?

    There will be further correction to house prices - and frankly, I 'm looking forward to it and waiting to pick up a property or two from the repros.

    As I have said before - it wasn't the Bankers that got us into this mess, although they did offer irresponsible credit lines to morons. IIRC, the Bank bailout accounts for about 20% of our structural deficit and it is indeed the only element that is likely to be paid back anytime soon.
  4. Agreed, if someone owed me £1,000 and refused to pay it back I'd take the hit and sell the debt on to a collection agency staffed by blokes that make Raoul Moat look balanced.

    And I'd enjoy watching the curtain twitching worm squirm as Raoul took possession of the Audi TT from the tw@t earning £25k a year.
  5. I'm not so sure how far south they'll go... I think they'll drop a bit or stagnate. The BoE couldn't afford to bail out another tranche of bank loans going bad, and this is why ComDem are moving towards implementing their cuts over 4 years...
  6. Fine by me, banks don't actually own the mortgage........we repackaged those and sold them to your pension the idiot is only screwing himself.

    Me? I'll just rent you one of the properties I've bought cheaply at the defaulters auctions. I'll get you one way or another.
  7. Prices will not go down by much. Rents are already going up as a result of the mortgage drought and interest rates remain low , so there won't be many repo's.The value in property will be sustained by the rental market .Hardly any new stock is being built either , so that is raising demand as well. Tory policy of devolving planning powers to the Local Authorities is already making planning harder to obtain because of nimbyism , further excacerbaiting the shortage .....
    In short , there won't be too many real bargains out there , only perceived ones in shitholes where no one wants to live.
    That said , landlords will buy these " bargains " to house people on benefits displaced from London by the new housing benefit caps , thus creating or enlarging existing welfare ghettoes .
    Housing shortage will always be a head ache in this country unless something fairly radical is done like putting eostregen in the water or closing the borders.
  8. Interesting comments, but for the record I do not personally have a mortgage, nor any debt as such ( I would hardly classify myself as rich either, I hasten to add), but am just speculating on where all this economic mess is likely to go. The running theme that pathetically immature twats are living their lives on borrowed money, and as such, borrowed time, is deadly accurate. That banks are some sort of clean-handed angelic choir is, I think, a bit off the mark ( and, yes, I know, I use too many commas!)
  9. Wordsmith

    Wordsmith LE Book Reviewer

    There is a long term link between average wages and average house prices: they are about 3.8 times average wages. Average wages are about £26,0000 a year so £26,000 x 3.8 = £98,800.

    Average house price is currently about £160,000, so to get back to the historical relationship, house prices have some way to fall.

    It's not quite as drastic as it sounds because house prices will decline steadily, but wages will also increase - so in several years we'll reach a cross over point.

    The other thing driving house prices down is the removal of self-certified (i.e. lie through your teeth) mortgages. Getting people back to the old 3.5 times earnings formula has taken a lot of the upward pressure out of the market.

  10. I have visions of you as an egoeccentric meglomaniac Banker/Dr Evil stroking a white cat. ^_~
  11. The whole premise of your question is wrong.

    Even if house prices fall significantly, that does not mean people will be made homeless. Provided they can afford to keep paying their mortgage payments then there is no reason for the bank to foreclose on their loan. The worst case is that when the home-owner comes to sell, they may lose some money - if they had ben paying out rent for the period, chances are they would have "lost" far more.

    If people have bought houses in the expectation of making a packet - tough. It's a risk - perhaps you would have been better going down the bookies.

    Buy a house to live in and you are probably OK. Buy one to rent out and if you have done your homework well, you are probably OK. If you bought a house and hoped to make a killing or fund an extravagant life-style, then you have dipped - but don't say the warnings weren't there!
  12. Or the lender will throw out all those people who lied another ‘speculator’ will buy the property and become yet another of the ever growing list of private Landlords (at least we have one profitable industry in the UK :biggrin:).

    Or if it is in an attractive location someone will buy it as a holiday home, live in it 2 – 3 times a year for a couple of weeks and leave it vacant for the rest of the year (or advertise on cottagesforyou), therefore increasing demand, therefore over inflating the housing market, therefore encouraging more people to think about bending the truth about their income to get a place to live, therefore putting more people at risk of default when the slip into negative equity and can't afford the repayments, therefore…. Repeat until dizzy
  13. Hopefully they'll plummet and the government will increase capital gains tax to eye-wateringly high levels so that the arrse drops out of the buy-to-let market. Then our kids might have a chance of owning a fcuking flat one day.
  14. If the price plummets no ****** is going to make a capital gain......
  15. In the short term, you're correct. However, we have to stop seeing property as a means of making a quick buck and instead view it as a social asset. If you want an investment, buy gold or pork bellies.