Preventing the next financial crash

Discussion in 'Economics' started by wm1965, Jul 6, 2012.

Welcome to the Army Rumour Service, ARRSE

The UK's largest and busiest UNofficial military website.

The heart of the site is the forum area, including:

  1. I firmly believe Basel III and Solvency II sets us up for a a far worse crash than the previous one. Simply because the regulations have become far more prescriptive and while backwards looking appear great, they are not very forwards looking. Leverage caps seem prudent and perhaps the best area they've touched is the cleaning and increasing of common equity requirements. Still, not forwards looking and biased (0% r.w. govies etc.)

    Why did CDOs fly out of the door? Risk-weighting and regulatory "arbitrage", the same with off-balance sheet SIVs etc.

    More than ever the risk-weightings attributed to existing asset classes skews banks' businesses away from what they would naturally do for prudent, profit maximization.

    My solution? Start simple:
    1) A fixed risk-weighting for all assets of 5%;
    2) Full disclosure of net and gross bucketed market positions every quarter, 3 months delayed.

    This would result in full transparency, albeit delayed for market sensitivity, for shareholders to make informed decisions i.e. self-regulate to an extent, would increase competition and prevent distortions to banks' business. You would know exactly what kind of bank you are investing in.
    • Show again braincell Show again braincell x 2
  2. Well more transparency seems key and Basel III seems like an ineffectual half measure but I must admit I don't understand the mechanics.

    I can't help thinking the sheer scale of our Byzantine institutions is a problem and given financial history a lot more attention should be given to robustness in failure as they are liable to **** up big time however they are regulated by national governments which appear to have increasingly limited practical sovereignty in these matters.
  3. I think the way people can survive the next round of financial difficulites/crash is to wake up to the real world.

    1, the bank has its own interests at heart, which is making money, depositors/investors/shareholders do so at their own risk.

    2/ recognise many "high flyers" are actually psychopaths, and are risk takers by their very nature. Do not befriend or trust them.

    3/ Make your own money rather than rely on someone else to do so.Ie invest in your own enterprises/ time.

    4/ accept that you are not in, and never will be in, the rich club. Stop pretending, live within your means and be clean and you can look anyone in the eye on a level basis.

    5/ there is no such thing as financial equality, and never will be. Nor should there be. Money is only a means to an end, not an end in itself.

    6/people equal shit.
    • Like Like x 10
    • Informative Informative x 2
  4. Don't lend money to people who will never be able to afford to repay it
    • Like Like x 2
  5. And countries too!
    • Like Like x 2
  6. Feck me, what a load of shite.
    • Like Like x 3
  7. Banker, I'm sorry you feel that way. Could you explain your thoughts?

    I hope you can see I know my RoE from RoA and MiFID II TCA from MiFID not-worst-execution!

    I've spoken to quite a few senior management MDs about this over the years and they are in agreement. It's not like Basel II worked!
  8. A fixed risk weighting is a potential solution however it would be very unpopular and would not allow firms to choose to be specialists in a given asset class. I am not sure that an industry of generalists is necessarily a good thing.
  9. Do share your views on IFRS 9.
  10. Would the re-impostion of a Glass-Stegal Act in America go a long way to try and prevent those big banks engaging in nefarious dealings again such as the Sub Prime mortgage scandal which triggered the last financial crisis?

    Would similar legislation here in the UK make any difference, or do we have a Financial Services that has the legal teeth to investigate alleged wrongdoing by the big banks?
    • Like Like x 2
  11. Who is in anyone's opinion, is the most plausible and experienced economist or Economic Think Tank anyone has listenend to on the media etc. Which one has a good track record for forecasting with reasonable accuracy various countries ecomic projections for the next few years; and do they have anything to say about the UK's 'Brexist' and the future of the EU in its current configuration.

    Various Think Tanks and pundits often colour their assesments with a political Worldview of matters. However there are one or two that give a reasonable straightforward account without being biased politically with 'economic embroidery' etc.

    From an historic point of view, I often lsiten to Vernon Bogdanor. he is a research proffessor at the King college University, London and proffessor of politics and government at Oxford University.
  12. ugly

    ugly LE Moderator

    Frankly banks should be allowed to fail, that is from both the free market economics view as well as the national managed plan view. Banks debts can be sold, at a loss maybe but why should the taxpayer carry those and the bank behaves in the same way time and time again. Personal savings are guaranteed at a level sufficient for most of those who cant afford a financial advisor and the mortgages will be of value.
    Let them all sink if they fail, the bigger or better managed banks will survive and then maybe the ***** will learn a lesson.
    Yes I am bitter, because I lost a really good job thanks to our Govt bailing out Northern Wreck which set the standard and all of them went cap in hand eating up the capital needed for the schemes we were working on.
    • Like Like x 3
    • Informative Informative x 2
  13. One simple step:

    "You - yes you, Named Individual A - will be held personally liable for any adverse consequences of your decisions, up to and including criminal liability for losses sustained by savers. Oh, and by the way your personal assets are now defined as whatever you benefit from in any way, so don't think you can come the **** with the paperwork "
    • Like Like x 5
  14. "Beggars make rags,
    Rags make paper,
    Paper makes money,
    Money makes banks,
    Banks make loans,
    Loans make beggars ... "

    Rinse and repeat. And thus it ever was, is and shall be, while we have a debt based monetary system.