PR11 might be tough - but PR12 will be tougher

Discussion in 'Strategic Defence & Spending Review (SDSR)' started by Outstanding, Feb 28, 2011.

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  1. Not my words but very interesting comments linked with other stuff in the press and elsewhere, this first Planning Round 11 will cut us all hard, but the real knife is contained in PR 12 which must make significantly bigger, deeper and more significant cuts just to keep Defence on track as it stands.

    "Coming as no surprise will be the news of rumours of yet more cuts, reductions in Army numbers post 2015 and Tornado’s being the headline grabbers this week. As the MoD wrestled with Planning Round 11 it became obvious that the SDSR announcements were not going to be enough and yet more reductions would be inevitable. Various leaks and titbits have been surfaced but the fat lady hasn’t started her solo yet and if there is anything certain, it is that there is more bad news to come.

    The real bad news will surface when PR11 has been finalised, right now the MoD is looking down the back of the sofa for a few quid that might have been left over from the last diversity seminar.

    The Guardian is reporting that options include yet more surface vessels to be withdrawn, Army personnel reduced, reduction in the mythical Chinook order and the early withdrawal of the entire Tornado fleet. There will be a range of options presented these might well be on that list.

    The MoD responded

    SDSR implementation work is ongoing and the MOD is also undertaking its annual planning round, which is used routinely to look forward over ten years and ensure the Department’s commitments are in line with available resources. We keep a range of options under consideration at all times regarding future capabilities. Premature speculation is not helpful to that process, to our Armed Forces or to industry.

    So, let’s not speculate or discuss eviscerating the armed forces because it might be unhelpful to them.

    In a world of hard choices I think withdrawing Tornado earlier might well be the lesser of several evils. It is currently the only aircraft cleared for RAPTOR which is providing a significant capability in Afghanistan but there is no reason why other coalition aircraft could not use the pod (the Polish and Greek Air Force use RAPTOR on their F16’s for example) and the small number in theatre would seem to make them vulnerable. Close Air Support and ISTAR could be provided by other coalition partners and there is no doubt that even after compensating BAe and Rolls Royce for early termination of aircraft and engine sustainment contracts there is soem serious potential for savings that would relieve pressure on other areas.

    Withdrawing Tornado early might even allow some funding to be found to accelerate integration of systems like Paveway IV, Brimstone and RAPTOR onto Typhoon. Now that the deal to sell RAF Typhoon production slots to Oman looks a bit wobbly the need to keep Tornado because Typhoon would not be available in sufficient numbers might not be as acute.

    Also in the news recently is Liam Fox planning to deliver a speech to the think tank Civitas in which he will address the issue of budget over runs in major projects.

    For years successive defence secretaries have failed to get a grip on the equipment programme and failed to hold the department and industry to account for delays and poor cost-estimation

    These practices in the MoD would simply not be tolerated in the private sector, and they will no longer be tolerated in the MoD

    Whilst there is an obvious need for the relationship between industry and the MoD to change and for the MoD itself to change I think the elephant in the room for major projects is politics and politics, is something that politicians need to sort out. In various news reports that trail the speech some of these major projects that are over budget are highlighted, including Astute, CVF, Typhoon and A400.

    Anyone who has even a passing familiarity with these projects will fully understand the political dimension is the source of the serious cost over runs so we can all witter on about BAe and DE&S all day long but it will not make one brass farthing of difference to major project costs.

    Political interference is the biggest source of acquisition buffoonery so unless, Liam, you can sort that one out, I suspect in 5 or 10 years time we will be planning yet another reappraisal of our relationship with the defence industry and bemoaning ineptitude at the MoD."

    Look out here comes trouble!!
  2. Bin that and spend the money on new C-130's and some more C-17's.

    Job jobbed and money saved all round by standardising on two types we already have in service and meet our military rather than political needs.
  3. Hear Hear, it is simply another European white Elephant.
  4. Crikey! Where did this 'MoD response' come from? Is the worm turning?
  5. a400 carries more to places c17's cant go although im all for more c17's.

    we will be standardised with two types, the c17 and a400. if we always stuck to what we already had in service there would be significant problems with the wood rotting in our sopwith airframes.

    its a more advanced c130j if you will, both payload and range and speed is significantly increased over the c130, if anything it meets our military needs significantly more than the c130.

    the only thing to be criticised is the unit price but thats down to the weakness of procurment to argue airbus down over delays
  6. If thery continue to reducew the RAF it will be irrelevant as all Heavy Lift will be outsourced.
  7. yeah, the Army will mainly be fucked by PR12 - the Defence assumptions allow for a c90,000 large Army, and we're currently paying for a 102,000 one....
  8. PR12 also cuts into the training base and seeks to link training to super garrisons, thus reducing overheads.
  9. A400M- the total waste of space that is years late and overbudget.Britain should never have touched this with a bargepole.
  10. Wasn't that one that landed in Bristol last week?
  11. heavy lift is the only thing increasing slightly in the RAF, if anything we will loose our pointy end.

    either ways the K is going/gone this year and the J's have had the arse flown out of them. we shall see if the a400m is up to the task but it does bring us benefits i think.


    what isnt?