Post Conflict Afghanistan

alib

LE
I would suggest there's going to be a Great Game played by India, China, Pakistan and possibly Russia all over Afghanistan for the next few decades.
There's very little there worth scrapping about apart from strategic depth for Pindi and that's been an issue since 48.
 
I would suggest there's going to be a Great Game played by India, China, Pakistan and possibly Russia all over Afghanistan for the next few decades.
Hmm.. I doubt Russia will get involved again, they must be laughing their socks off watching the West getting a good kicking by trying to be the good guys, also the Afghans would not welcome them back! Pakistan will not let India become involved, too much risk of a stab in the back, plus the Afghans would not welcome a country whose religion is so alien to Islam. Pakistan cant even properly control its own tribal areas never mind getting sucked into further tribal grief. China is probably the only country with the ability to take advantage of the situation as they are doing over much of S. America & post colonial Africa and I think the Afghans would get a nasty shock if they upset the PLA once they were installed!!
 

alib

LE
The other actor with an interest is Iran, they won't want Mullah Omar's mob back in Kabul. China and Russia I doubt will care much.
 
S

Screw_The_Nut

Guest
There's very little there worth scrapping about apart from strategic depth for Pindi and that's been an issue since 48.
Apparently: natural gas, petroleum, coal, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulfur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, precious and semiprecious stones

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html

Mining in Afghanistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"abundant non-fuel mineral resources"

And apart from that - the trans-asia pipeline...
 
And the fact China and India are currently involved in a border dispute near Afghanistan

Sino-Indian border dispute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Plus the entire Indo-Pak strategic depth issue, combined with India working with Iran

Chah Bahar - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Which will increase Pakistani paranoia (unless they are out to get them), about being surrounded, combined with a large Islamic state to the South of Russia (via a Stan or two, which are pretty much still 'Russian' if Putin believes Putin), all adds to the mix.

And don't forget, sometimes power politics occur simply because they can, and the presence of just one of those nations in Afghanistan will almost guarantee the others turning up.

I doubt it'll be open warfare, but convenient accidents and contract disputes will be a day to day occurrence across the country.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
OK then.

Over what resources?

Just the location?
One reason that China has no particular desire to see AFG dissolve in a shower of scheiss is the copper mine they have opened in Aynak, south of Kabul.

INFOBOX: China and the Aynak Copper Mine | The Essential Field Guides

In 2007, two Chinese state-owned conglomerates, China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper Company (JCC) outbid competitors from Europe, Canada, the United States, Russia and Kazakhstan by offering $1 billion more than the others for mining rights. The deal, which is both a commercial and a long-term strategic coup, authorizes the Chinese companies to mine deposits near the village of Aynak in Loghar Province some 30 kilometres southeast of Kabul.

Over the next 25 years, the Chinese are expected to extract more than 11 million tonnes of copper, roughly equivalent to a third of China’s known copper reserves. In a single stroke, China became Afghanistan’s most powerful business partner and its largest potential source of tax revenue. China has carried off similar coups in other countries, notably Iraq, where it is now extracting more petroleum than American companies.
 
C

CivPlod

Guest
I read something the other day, that mentioned ITA, GER and US will retain command responsibility for there current areas, N, E, W of the country, but that GBR was currently undecided as to wether or not responsibility for the S will continue post 2014(I can't remember the source).

Then I saw this:

http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/3679472?utm_hp_ref=uk

Third paragraph down, seems to be quite telling.
I'd have rewrote it as "lead post 2014 missions in the south on behalf of ISAF/NATO".




Sent using the patented Telsascope and telsa coil by Nikola Telsa, from Mars.
 
I would'nt get too hung up on leading missions in the South post 2014.
 

fu2

LE
I imagine it won't be much different from when the Soviets left. We shouldn't have succumbed to mission creep and just left it to special forces/drone attacks.

Although one might ask what the point is of having an Army if you're not prepared to use it every now and then.
 
I imagine it won't be much different from when the Soviets left. We shouldn't have succumbed to mission creep and just left it to special forces/drone attacks.

Although one might ask what the point is of having an Army if you're not prepared to use it every now and then.
Quite, but one should use ones army responsibly and for valid reasons.
 
I imagine it won't be much different from when the Soviets left. We shouldn't have succumbed to mission creep and just left it to special forces/drone attacks.

Although one might ask what the point is of having an Army if you're not prepared to use it every now and then.
its not an old car. you dont need to take it out for a spin every now and then just to keep it ticking over!
 
OK then.

Over what resources?

Just the location?
The sources of many of the major rivers that they all rely on? Shedloads of unexploited minerals. And the vast opium profits.
 
I imagine it won't be much different from when the Soviets left. We shouldn't have succumbed to mission creep and just left it to special forces/drone attacks.

Although one might ask what the point is of having an Army if you're not prepared to use it every now and then.
I thought the Soviets left it in really good nick?
 

MrBane

LE
Moderator
Kit Reviewer
Reviews Editor
its not an old car. you dont need to take it out for a spin every now and then just to keep it ticking over!
I'd say you do actually, or else you suffer mass loss of skill, knowledge and experience. If nothing else has come out of Afghan apart from some body bags, we're certainly well up in our experience of dealing with that kind of conflict. No-one can deny that whilst this has all been going on, the Army has been motivated, challenged, occupied and developed from it. We've made some leaps forward in equipment and training not to mention aftercare for soldiers injured or otherwise with a great run of public support.

Without Iraq & Afghan, if there had been nothing else going on, you'd have an Army full of inexperienced sprogs and their only war stories would be the ones they heard off their old Sgt at depot.

Just like an old car that you don't take out for a spin, eventually the battery dies as all the energy has gone.
 

Glad_its_all_over

ADC
Book Reviewer
...much as the IRA did in NI.
No. They. ****ing. Didn't.

They lost. They came to the table, they packed it in, they're the ones engaging in politics rather than terrorism, they're the ones who're having to explain to the families of those they lost killed and injured, to say nothing of their communities, how their 'military operations' and 'armed struggle' ended up with.... what was on offer at Sunningdale in 1972.
 

Glad_its_all_over

ADC
Book Reviewer
I'd say you do actually, or else you suffer mass loss of skill, knowledge and experience. If nothing else has come out of Afghan apart from some body bags, we're certainly well up in our experience of dealing with that kind of conflict. No-one can deny that whilst this has all been going on, the Army has been motivated, challenged, occupied and developed from it. We've made some leaps forward in equipment and training not to mention aftercare for soldiers injured or otherwise with a great run of public support.

Without Iraq & Afghan, if there had been nothing else going on, you'd have an Army full of inexperienced sprogs and their only war stories would be the ones they heard off their old Sgt at depot.

Just like an old car that you don't take out for a spin, eventually the battery dies as all the energy has gone.
Of course, another way of looking at it is that we've ended up with an Army specialised in patrolling and force protection and seriously unable even to contemplate any other sort of war on anything other than a very small scale and short duration.
 
getting involved in conflicts because the lads miss their tour bonus is not a way to set about your foreign policy. as for being UK plc now being well disposed for more of the same i dont see how you can argue that after the last two gang****s.

and what would you rather have, guys with no legs but advanced prosthetics or guys with legs and no war stories?

i do see where you are coming but the logic is flawed. if the last decade and a bit has been so beneficial to the military why are we reducing its strength by 20%? training isnt as good as combat but combat just for the sake of it is ridiculous.
 
Of course, another way of looking at it is that we've ended up with an Army specialised in patrolling and force protection and seriously unable even to contemplate any other sort of war on anything other than a very small scale and short duration.
I agree.. although you could argue that that's what we've had all along. People largely accepted the blood price for Korea, and various scrappy wars as the Empire unravelled. But we've haven't had the resources to fight long and hard since the 70s - every conflict has been a damn close-run thing. Moreover the public have been loathe to support large scale, bloody conflicts where they're wars of choice. Why should they?

We've only had the big chat of "hardest troops in the world, happy to take casualties unlike the Americans, achieve great things through the magic of improvisation" when we've not actually been called upon to do it.

The next CGS faces an unenviable dilemma - "learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan" and perpetuate an FP-obsessed Euro Army, or "blindly ignore them" by trying to build an Army which can think & act boldly. I wouldn't put my career on the latter, and I suspect that neither will they.
 

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