Post Brexit Free Trade Deal With USA.

The Pound rise & fall is normal & expected, we saw plenty of fluctuations in the last 3 years while the markets were getting the jitters, the CoL knows political uncertainty is more or less gone with Boris strong government majority.

With BoJo & Barnier’s FTA speeches it’s clear Boris is upsetting the EU, in 11 months a Skeleton basic principles FTA can be achieved which is the likely outcome & not impossible. Meanwhile the US is one of many countries willing to trade with the UK. Australia et al all keen to get a swift FTA & the list is building. The UK has a clear government direction for 5 years unlike some others.


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From what's been said so far by senior politicians, diplomats, and trade economists, the UK's priorities will start with a new arm's length trade agreement with the EU based heavily on CETA.

Parallel with that will be agreements duplicating the existing terms of EU trade treaties with third parties. The UK has already been conducting negotiations with those countries, and the emphasis is on trade continuity along existing terms. Finalising these may be delayed until enough detail has been worked out with the UK-EU negotiations to ensure the third party treaties don't conflict with that one.

Beyond trade continuity, the UK can look at joining existing multi-lateral trade agreements as these would allow joining a system that is already stood up and working, as opposed to one that had to be started from scratch. In the past couple of days I posted a story on one of the Brexit threads where a trade economist recommended the UK joining the CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam). Other parties have said this would be a good idea as well. To put CPTPP into perspective, the total GDP of CPTPP countries with the UK added would be about 90% of the size of the total GDP of the EU without the UK. It's not a tightly knit group, but the size means it's worthwhile considering.
 
The Pound rise & fall is normal & expected, we saw plenty of fluctuations in the last 3 years while the markets were getting the jitters, the CoL knows political uncertainty is more or less gone with Boris strong government majority.

With BoJo & Barnier’s FTA speeches it’s clear Boris is upsetting the EU, in 11 months a Skeleton basic principles FTA can be achieved which is the likely outcome & not impossible. Meanwhile the US is one of many countries willing to trade with the UK. Australia et al all keen to get a swift FTA & the list is building. The UK has a clear government direction for 5 years unlike some others.


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Yeah, that fell alright.

Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 00.57.14.png
 
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Hmm few pages of the usual hadbagging with little to do about a free trade dal with the US.

Fact. The EU is demanding...and been told to f*ck off.

Fishing, EU law, level playing fields, Gibralter, all the usual bullying bluster and rudeness they are so fond off, is being bluntly ignored, by a PM with some big nuts.

Fact. We are now ready to make independent deals with various countries who are more than willing to deal with us.

Fact. After Germany...who’s economy is faltering, we are the most powerful economic country in Europe.

Fact. Without our contribution, the EU are now scrambling to try and cover their outrageous spending plans...and failing.

Fact. The US has presently put us as the No 1 country they wish to do a trade deal with.

Fact. Nancy 'pursed lips' Pelosi’s gamble to impeach Trump has gone down in flames. It is now very likely that Trump versus the left wing Corbyn-like Democratic present favourite, Bernie Sanders, will probably end in a Trump second term.

So what is a free trade deal with the US likely to look like?

And... we are not, like a whole gaggle of remainers were bleating, dealing from a condition of weakness.
 
Try Darth Cheney the GOP Hawks, and the Democratic Party professor. I don’t think Political Science is how you got your tenure.
You might want to listen to what Johnson has to say, from 4:37 to 5:36. It doesn't sound like the UK is about to kowtow to anyone.
 
From what's been said so far by senior politicians, diplomats, and trade economists, the UK's priorities will start with a new arm's length trade agreement with the EU based heavily on CETA.

Parallel with that will be agreements duplicating the existing terms of EU trade treaties with third parties. The UK has already been conducting negotiations with those countries, and the emphasis is on trade continuity along existing terms. Finalising these may be delayed until enough detail has been worked out with the UK-EU negotiations to ensure the third party treaties don't conflict with that one.

Beyond trade continuity, the UK can look at joining existing multi-lateral trade agreements as these would allow joining a system that is already stood up and working, as opposed to one that had to be started from scratch. In the past couple of days I posted a story on one of the Brexit threads where a trade economist recommended the UK joining the CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam). Other parties have said this would be a good idea as well. To put CPTPP into perspective, the total GDP of CPTPP countries with the UK added would be about 90% of the size of the total GDP of the EU without the UK. It's not a tightly knit group, but the size means it's worthwhile considering.
Sometimes I wondered if the UK could join NAFTA - maybe rename it as TAFTA (Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Agreement) - you will get access to the U.S/Canada/ Mexico. It will be a purely trade thingy, nothing to do with immigration, just like current NAFTA is.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Point of order: that looks like a ring-binder, not a lever-arch.

(ex-Civil Servant nerves twitching here)
I actually found some paper files bound with red tape this one time, at band-camp. No wah, gen.

TBH it had gone a little pink - which is also a thoughtful metaphor for the Home Civil Service :)

(Eeeeh - bring back page mustered office directories I say ! Countries gorn to the dawgs...harrumph...rustles yesterday's Telegraph )

Try this quote for size:

'' You get the impression that for the EU , this isn't about peace in Ireland...but about stopping Britain becoming a deregulated, low wage, low tax competitor to the EU. ...we need to rid ourselves of all the emotions that will lead us to a messy divorce, and start acting rationally "
 
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You might want to listen to what Johnson has to say, from 4:37 to 5:36. It doesn't sound like the UK is about to kowtow to anyone.

It seems like he is already starting to come to terms that agricultural products are on the table. Mumbo jumbo and all. He also has to know about the Resolution brought fourth yesterday by the House GOP condemning the U.K.
 
Who again has the largest economy in the world?
You are fighting over crumbs at the expense of the largest hunk of cheddar you will be able to get a slice from.
Ahhh America , the nouveau riche country , loads of cash but no idea where to spend it , just like a footballer who`s just gone premier league ,no taste or common sense, tell us about the US healthcare / social housing/ school security etc etc etc
 
Ahhh America , the nouveau riche country , loads of cash but no idea where to spend it , just like a footballer who`s just gone premier league ,no taste or common sense, tell us about the US healthcare / social housing/ school security etc etc etc
0D7568BF-4B13-4242-8926-6702E4CB8399.jpeg


I do know where to spend it...
 

It seems like he is already starting to come to terms that agricultural products are on the table. Mumbo jumbo and all. He also has to know about the Resolution brought fourth yesterday by the House GOP condemning the U.K.
A pointless resolution based on ignorance.

The US seems to be hung upon Huawei getting involved in 5G.

Yet curiously not on mobile phones and tablets, most of which are made in China (especially Apple products). Surely the wily, inscrutable Orientals would be surreptitiously shoving backdoors into all this kit.
 
A pointless resolution based on ignorance.

The US seems to be hung upon Huawei getting involved in 5G.

Yet curiously not on mobile phones and tablets, most of which are made in China (especially Apple products). Surely the wily, inscrutable Orientals would be surreptitiously shoving backdoors into all this kit.
Yes, beating out China is a national imperative. This is just 2020 Domino theory with new actors.
 

It seems like he is already starting to come to terms that agricultural products are on the table. Mumbo jumbo and all. He also has to know about the Resolution brought fourth yesterday by the House GOP condemning the U.K.
You will have noticed that Johnson put "Washington" in the same category as Brussels and Beijing. He doesn't seem to be the sort who frightens easily.
 
You will have noticed that Johnson put "Washington" in the same category as Brussels and Beijing. He doesn't seem to be the sort who frightens easily.
Let’s put this on hold until Thursday when the UK negotiation mandate comes out. That will help this thread I think.
 
You will have noticed that Johnson put "Washington" in the same category as Brussels and Beijing. He doesn't seem to be the sort who frightens easily.
But I will say it seems rather “odd” to place America in the same category as Brussels and Beijing. It does make it seem like we won’t be getting any closer. Your thoughts?
 

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