Paving the way for War with Iran: Heres how and why...

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Steven_McLaughlin, Sep 28, 2009.

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  1. Up until only a few months ago the Obama administration was apparently fully committed to a long-standing pledge with both Poland and the Czech Republic, to site a missile defence shield and early warning radar system in their respective countries. Both countries had been promised generous American dollars to help reconstruct their economies and extensive re-equipping and re-training programs for their armies; contracts had been signed and firm handshakes exchanged.

    But something has now happened and this agreement has been abruptly aborted. America has taken a huge political risk and alienated and infuriated two of its most ardent and closest backers. Even more astonishingly, to the chagrin of Poland in particular, America seems to have taken a giant stride towards a traditionally troublesome and often diametrically opposed former enemy – Russia.

    Why would the Obama administration risk alienating such firm friends and jeopardizing such crucial partnerships in these unstable and uncertain times?

    Here’s what I think the answer is:

    We are preparing for War with Iran and a giant game of geo-political high-stakes chess is being played out before our eyes.

    For many years Russia has been deeply stung and offended at the prospect of its former satellite nation Poland, now increasingly powerful in its own right, housing a state-of-the-art defence shield on its soil. Russia views it as an affront to its superpower status and a direct threat to its national security, should a confrontation ever arise, which is an unlikely prospect but worrying to them none the less.

    For many years now Russia has enjoyed a close and productive relationship with IRAN, furnishing them with scientific assistance in their nuclear program and investing heavily in their industries and businesses. And of course, the fact that this irritates the American’s has at times been a useful and relatively harmless way to nip at their heels and make life difficult for them.

    But all of a sudden this is no longer a childish game and both Russia and America have decided to up the stakes a little and clarify their positions. We must ask ourselves why and take a long view.

    Here’s my possible take on events:

    America needs to know that if it and the Israelis attack Iran, Russia will not respond in a HOSTILE fashion that could lead to massive confrontation.

    So in order to clear the way for the impending action it firsts needs to pacify and sort out its problems regarding Iran with Russia. Here’s how the conversation might have developed, please excuse the lame and truncated dialogue; it’s late and I’m tired:

    PRESIDENT OBAMA: ‘Vladimir, I need to speak to you as a man and I need to know your intentions regarding our mutual problem. I know that we see this from different sides, but the stakes are so high my friend, we just cannot let this escalate any more than it has to.’

    PRESIDENT PUTIN: ‘So what are you hinting at Barrack? Speak plainly, as a man, like you say, and make your point.’

    OBAMA: ‘I know that you’re committed to Iran; I know how much money you’ve put into that country and I know that it’s currency you can’t afford to lose.’

    PUTIN: ‘So what are you suggesting? Why do you need me now? You’ve never listened to me before. Take Poland for example…’

    OBAMA: ‘I was just coming to that. You know my friend things can change quickly in our business – right? So I’m asking you now, is there anything that I can do that will maybe make life a little easier for you back home? Oh, I know that no matter what I do you’re going to raise merry hell and call us all kinds of names. But just so long as that’s all it is – names, rumbles, not opposition or intervention, of any sort – well, I can live with that. And the Israelis can too…’

    PUTIN: ‘Take your damned missiles out of Poland; don’t like them pointing in my direction and nor do my people. We have our pride, and our history, you know?’

    OBAMA: ‘And in return?’

    PUTIN: ‘Do whatever the hell you want with Iran. Just don’t expect me to keep quite about it. Oh I can assure you my friend I’ll raise ‘merry hell’ about it at the UN, as you Americans are fond of saying. But that is all, merry hell, hot air and nothing else – just like the old days eh? Now be done with that damned missile fantasy and let’s talk of other things…’

    THE MISSILE SHIELD WAS CANCELLED TO APPEASE THE RUSSIANS AND PAVE THE WAY FOR WAR WITH IRAN. THAT WAS THE PRICE OF PUTIN’S PLEDGE – ‘MERRY HELL’ BUT NO RUSSIAN INTERVENTION.
     
  2. I can see your point.

    Being behind on keeping up to date with the whole Iran situation I won't intrude further.
     
  3. Putin isn't the President of Russia and hasn't been at any time since Obama assumed office - or even since his confirmation as the Democratic Party's Presidential nominee.

    Once again, basic factual errors don't so much undermine your arguement as demonstrate you haven't done enough research to make one.
     
  4. Biped

    Biped LE Book Reviewer

    I do suspect he's got a point though. I do think however that this broken deal in Europe has something to do with Afghanistan, and something to do wth Iran.

    The stupid Polish have been lamenting the fact loudly that they expected the US to honour its pledge as part of NATO to defend Poland from Russia, and the the loss of the missile defence shield directly affects that pledge . . . . . . erm, according to the US, that's not why the missile defence shield was going to be put in Eastern Europe; DOH!!! Kind of blew the lid off that one huh!

    We do need transport links across Russian territory, badly, to continue our efforts in Afghanistan. Our supply lines are already very long, and under attack by talibs. The Russians can allow us through some of their territory (I think they are already - I'm pretty sure we've already got over-flight rights on some) to get to where the action is, with shorter supply lines and less risk. That's got to be worth a deal or two.

    Also, if we do plan to bash Iran, any unfriendly Russian involvement can make that a good deal harder - whether it's technical expertise, missiles, radars, humint or even sigint info supplied to Iran - we could get a bl00dy nose if the Ruskies aren't on-side.

    Another aspect to this is: Whatever the deal between the US and Russia - Europe is part of NATO, and that particular part of NATO is getting ever-more reliant on Russian gas and other reserves. I'm not saying that Russia has threatened to makes things expensive or difficult in these areas (remember last winter?), but I'm sure it's a factor in Europe's equations.

    Quite simply - it is much better for us locally and globally if we negotiate on friendly terms with Russia, and if that means a meeting of minds on certain issues like gas, missiles, supply lines, Iran etc - why not? Russia is no longer the red bear that threatens us all with destruction. It would seem that now it is a capitalist nation with huge reserves of natural resources, a large number of people, vast tracts of land and not inconsiderable global influence.
     
  5. There must be war!

    Apocalyptic fundamentalist Christian-Zionist neo-cons will it!
     
  6. Correct, but who do you think is really (emphaising the word 'really' as the underline facility isn't working) the President of Russia?
     

  7. Putin is the de factor 'President' of Russia. He only stepped down because he had to under the Consititution. Well, his placeman Medvedev has passed a law that will allow him to become the up front President once more and stay in office for two terms of 6 years next time.
     
  8. Biped

    Biped LE Book Reviewer

    You leave Tom Cruise out of this! :evil:

    Oh, sorry, he's an Apocalyptic fundamentalist Scientologist neo-con. :oops:
     
  9. I am very concerned that the West now has a attitude that it can and will attack any Middle Eastern country that does not "tow the line" on Western ideology.
     

  10. Any oil exporting nation can do anything it wants, as long as it does not threaten the supply of cheap oil to the USA.
     
  11. Whether he is the de facto President or not is irrelevant. The point I was trying to make is that if people are going to post threads pontifcating on foreign affairs, it helps if they get their facts right first. Steve posted similar musings on Afghanistan and parts his post were completely untrue. If you don't even know who the President of The Russian Federation is, foreign affairs might not be your bag.

    Agreed, he does have a point but it is not an original one and the potential trade-off between the missile shield and military action against Iran has been doing the rounds for over a year.
     
  12. You’re all quite right in declaring that Putin isn’t the President of Russia anymore and is only the ‘Prime Minister’, but as far as the rest of the world is concerned nothing gets done in that country without his approval and he’s still very much number one. Once Medvedev steps aside for him there’s every chance that Putin will be the official number one until 2024 – or beyond if he changes the constitution again.

    I really think there’s more to this missile defence shield cancellation than we’ve been told so far, and I think that the key has got to be Iran, because America wouldn’t so visibly backtrack and dump an almost done deal with an important ally without urgent and compelling reasons. And in my opinion, although I might be completely wrong, that reason is Iran and the need for Russia’s silent support but merely vocal opposition.

    The missile defence shield was HUGLEY important to Poland’s sense of pride, security and developing economy. If ever you’ve spent any time in Poland you’ll realise very quickly just how much hatred they have for the Russian’s and their historically bad treatment of their country.

    A few weeks back they had the WW2 commencement memorial commemorations and they spoke more about Russian war crimes than German ones; how Stalin personally ordered the execution of over 5,000 of Poland’s brightest and best future leaders, including hundreds of army officers, in Katyn forest because he assessed them as a threat to his future communist empire; how during the Warsaw uprising a relatively small pocket of Poles began to beat back the Germans and defeat them by force of will alone, pleading and begging for the watching Russians to step in and help them finish the fight before the Germans could re-org and counter-attack. But they didn’t; they just stood back and watched the Germans wear themselves and the Polish resistance down – and then they moved in and killed EVERYBODY.

    I can’t begin to describe to you how raw a wound Katyn still is to the Poles. For them, it’s like the Bloody Sunday incident is to Irish Catholics – only far, far worse because unlike us the Russians simply can’t admit they did a terrible thing at Katyn forest. And all of the above happened before we even begin to discuss the Soviet imposition of communism on Polish soil…

    And make no mistake, every single country in Eastern Europe still feels incredibly menaced and threatened by Russia, and as far as they’re concerned they can’t get close to us quick enough. I work as an ESOL teacher during the day and my girlfriend’s Polish so I hear about this stuff all the time from the east European point of view. To the Poles, Ukrainians, Lithuanians and everybody else Russia can at times seem like an extremely large and overgrown child that doesn’t yet know its own strength and has the habit of throwing dangerous tantrums – throwing its arms about and thrashing around like a giant octopus. So you’re damn right they feel a bit scared; it’s like having Mike Tyson for a big brother and you don’t want to upset him when he’s had a few…

    I CAN SENSE THAT THERE’S A CHANGING OF THE GUARD AND A BUYING OFF OF NEW AND OLD FRIENDS IN THE RUN UP TO WAR

    We are trying to get as many friendly Muslim nations as possible on board and attempting to consolidate our position in the Middle East as much as possible, hence our recent friendly overtures to former enemy Colonel Gaddafi and Libya. Of course the Americans made a fuss over this but secretly they’re pleased; the UK takes the political and domestic hit, the American leadership can raise merry hell, but at the end of the day we’re now all closer friends. America included.

    We can persuade the Chinese and the Indians to mainly sit this one out as it’s not in their national interest to get involved and they won’t want to. China will kick up a diplomatic fuss because they’ve got a few scientists in Ian, but it won’t be any more than hot air and merry hell. The Indians will just enjoy the spectacle of a strident Muslim nation getting its ass whipped – any country will do.

    We have in effect bought off the Russians with the cancellation of the shield, so that angles covered.

    We can ‘give permission’ to the Israelis to conduct a devastating bomber run on the nuclear sites, just as they did in Iraq, back in 1983, I believe.

    If we’re feeling really daring we can even foresee a joint American/Israeli Special Forces airdrop and raid into the underground bunkers to take out the Revolutionary Guards and make sure the job gets done properly.

    We’ve learnt our lessons in Iraq and won’t be looking at a major occupation; just a few devastating bomber strikes and perhaps a short, sharp troop incursion – in and out fast with a very light TEMPORARY footprint.

    Of course gentlemen, where all this will lead in the long term is the topic for another post, but I think we can say with certainty that a new order is attempting to be forged in the Middle East. We live in strange and interesting times!
     

  13. We can do what we want, Israel does not have the suport A/C including tankers to carry out such a raid. It would be beyond them and to achieve any results worth a damn they would have to send all their AF and have them carrying bombs to put enough bombs on target to get a result. Problem is, although Irans AF is not that big, it is big enough and has enough fighters to put up a spirited defence.

    If bomb laden F15's and 16's run into IRAF fighters, they will have to ditch their bombs or be shot down.
     
  14. Also assumes Putin doesn't know full well that the missiles are in no way 'pointed at Russia' (as Russian ICBM's heading for North America would fly over the North Pole, not Europe).

    Also assumes Putin doesn't have the brains to know that the missiles would be of far more use to him 'in place' as he can play his anti-America card at home.

    Also assumes that Obama and co havn't taken a look at the missile defence system and decided that it's an expensive one-trick pony that doesn't solve the problem of Iran, but only address a symptom of the problem.
     
  15. No they can not, thats my point. The West will go to war if its oil demands are under threat. If Iran is ever attacked, the whole of the middle east will be involved. Does the West have the right to dominate the Middle East? This mentality is toying with a third world war!!
    Just because Iran has built a few reactors in its homeland is not a catalist to attack it, China has been building nuclear reactors by the dozen in recent years , and their human rights record is out of this world!!
    The West's worst nightmare is running out of oil at the end of the day!!