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'Pale Rider'- will the Spanish Influenza resurface

#41
#43
Fourteen years ago I worked at a desk opposite a Civil Servant who was contingency planning for Diplomatic Missions for a pandemic flu outbreak when it happens. We didn't have the most cheery conversations.

There is a school of thought that 'Spanish' originated in East Asia - and back in the day, of course, global travel was both time bound and rare.

Off the top my head (I'm not a Virologist by education, so don't rely on the figures), seasonal flu has around an 80% contagion rate, but a relatively small mortality rate of 20% - of which are elderly, or have a weakened immune system through a pre-existing condition.

H5N1 has a mortality rate of 60%, but isn't very good a going cross species, you need to be in close proximity to birds. It has, however, gone human to human.

When H5 mutates, and does become more effective at human to human contagion, coupled with our ability for, and ready access to, international travel, things will become 'interesting'.

It was described to me, in the UK context, as 'walk down the street that you live, and every third house, say 'you're all dead'.
 
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#46
A recent National Geographic article highlights the problem not just of the permafrost melt in the Arctic latitudes, but also the influence of warmer waters moving North and of insect disease vectors thriving in more Northerly environs. These are from both viral and bacteriological pathogens.
Climate Change Pushing Tropical Diseases Toward Arctic
The problem isn't confined to humans. Any Invasive Non Native Species (INNS) carries its own personal ecosystem of bugs and viruses.
If a host animal gets into a new environment, its diseases can easily jump across as well, and cripple the native species.
Red squirrels in the UK have been wiped out by a pox virus native to the Grey, and the British crayfish has been wiped out by a disease carried by the American Signal crayfish. Those are just two of the ones we know about.
Even plants can be affected. The Elm tree was wiped out by a fungus carried by an invasive beetle.
 
#47
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Red squirrels in the UK have been wiped out by a pox virus native to the Grey, and the British crayfish has been wiped out by a disease carried by the American Signal crayfish. Those are just two of the ones we know about.
Even plants can be affected. The Elm tree was wiped out by a fungus carried by an invasive beetle.
Good - hate the chirpy looking, nut thieving little rats with their bushy useless tails. And I bet the american versions of crayfish are bigger with more meat on them. Mother nature loves survival of the fittest - somebody needs to ask "what is the point of the panda bear" too. All it does is eat bamboo and we need all of it for crap furniture.
 
#51
Good - hate the chirpy looking, nut thieving little rats with their bushy useless tails. And I bet the american versions of crayfish are bigger with more meat on them. Mother nature loves survival of the fittest - somebody needs to ask "what is the point of the panda bear" too. All it does is eat bamboo and we need all of it for crap furniture.
Except Grey's do a lot more damage to forestry and the American crayfish is a pest species with no natural predators, and that eats everything it can.And digs bloody great holes in river banks, causing them to collapse.
 
#52
MERS-CoV is the one that keeps me awake at night. That really does feel a case of when not if
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus - Wikipedia

Abx resistance is also a mare and is happening around us as we speak. The more abx used the more we select out the sensitive pathogens, leaving the resistant ones to spread.

CPE is the big one, but there are loads of others - good article here :Worse than MRSA: Doctors call for urgent action on deadly superbug threat — The Bureau of Investigative Journalism

Here is some food for thought about zoonotic disease

Those who are interested here is a good twitter account to follow, @MicrobesInfect
 
#53
I make sure I get the flu shot every year now I am on a steroid inhaler and have asthma. It buggers me up for the night I have it but it is better than catching the flu.
 
#54
MERS-CoV is the one that keeps me awake at night. That really does feel a case of when not if
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus - Wikipedia

Abx resistance is also a mare and is happening around us as we speak. The more abx used the more we select out the sensitive pathogens, leaving the resistant ones to spread.

CPE is the big one, but there are loads of others - good article here :Worse than MRSA: Doctors call for urgent action on deadly superbug threat — The Bureau of Investigative Journalism

Here is some food for thought about zoonotic disease

Those who are interested here is a good twitter account to follow, @MicrobesInfect
Indeed, this broad study indicates the staggering reservoir size of coronaviruses, whilst some have achieved the necessary mutation in order to jump to humans in the recognisable form of SARS or MERS -
Bats are the major reservoir of coronaviruses worldwide
 
#55
Good - hate the chirpy looking, nut thieving little rats with their bushy useless tails. And I bet the american versions of crayfish are bigger with more meat on them. Mother nature loves survival of the fittest - somebody needs to ask "what is the point of the panda bear" too. All it does is eat bamboo and we need all of it for crap furniture.
The Shadow would like you..
 
#57
Smallpox supposedly only exists inside the confines of two laboratory freezers - one in the CDC (Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) in Atlanta, and another in Vector, the Russian equivalent, based in Koltsovo in Novosibirsk. There is no need to worry about anything further from that particular family of viruses. We are perfectly safe.

And if you believe anything I've written in those sentences I've got a bridge across the Clyde I'd LOVE to sell you. The Russians weaponized that shit during the Cold War - making tonnes of the stuff that they could have deployed on top of SS-18 SATAN missiles - having tested the capability on several occasions. The likelihood that they've thrown that capability out of the window after proving that they could do it is so vanishingly small that you'd have to look at it through the Hubble.

The thing is, though, that smallpox is possibly the least nasty of the really nasty stuff that the Russians got up to messing around with, and for further details you'd not be wasting your time if you read the book that's the subject of this webpage:

Biohazard (book) - Wikipedia
 
#58
Smallpox supposedly only exists inside the confines of two laboratory freezers - one in the CDC (Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) in Atlanta, and another in Vector, the Russian equivalent, based in Koltsovo in Novosibirsk. There is no need to worry about anything further from that particular family of viruses. We are perfectly safe.

And if you believe anything I've written in those sentences I've got a bridge across the Clyde I'd LOVE to sell you. The Russians weaponized that shit during the Cold War - making tonnes of the stuff that they could have deployed on top of SS-18 SATAN missiles - having tested the capability on several occasions. The likelihood that they've thrown that capability out of the window after proving that they could do it is so vanishingly small that you'd have to look at it through the Hubble.

The thing is, though, that smallpox is possibly the least nasty of the really nasty stuff that the Russians got up to messing around with, and for further details you'd not be wasting your time if you read the book that's the subject of this webpage:

Biohazard (book) - Wikipedia
The Russians also had a bioweapon research station on Vozrozhdeniya Island in the Aral Sea.
Unfortunately, there isn't much Aral Sea left, because the Russians rerouted the river's to grow cotton, so the containment of all those bugs isn't what it was.
 

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