Pakistan - Is it going to kick off?

#1
Navi Sharif (sic) denies House Arrest and leads a march.

Will the Army crack down, will there be tears before bedtime or are we looking at regime change looming in Pakistan?
 
#2
"Will the Army crack down, will there be tears before bedtime or are we looking at regime change looming in Pakistan?"

No, No and No.

Zardari will give in.

Choudhary and co will be reinstated.
The courts will rule that that Sharif and Bro are back in business.

But that instability feeling will continue.

But do you see what happens when you 'effing insist democracy when there are no real democratic parties but fiefdoms?
 
#3
Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
 
#4
JonnoJonno said:
Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
Most nations are false constructs, if Pakistan was to collapse it would have done so in '71. There is defined national consciousness and you have to remember one way that successive Pakistani governments get the west to come running is to say that that the nation is one the precipice.
 
#5
castlereagh said:
JonnoJonno said:
Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
Most nations are false constructs, if Pakistan was to collapse it would have done so in '71. There is defined national consciousness and you have to remember one way that successive Pakistani governments get the west to come running is to say that that the nation is one the precipice.
Modern false construct- they will take years to settle down. Whilst I am no expert on that region the place is a mess. The European Scramble for Africa will result in the same when those nations develop. Total cluster f*ck the lot of it; I wonder if there is a correlation to the date a country was first 'born' to major disruptive events in it's history?

Edited because it is sunday night, and I spell like a child
 
#6
JonnoJonno said:
castlereagh said:
JonnoJonno said:
Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
Most nations are false constructs, if Pakistan was to collapse it would have done so in '71. There is defined national consciousness and you have to remember one way that successive Pakistani governments get the west to come running is to say that that the nation is one the precipice.
Modern false construct- they will take years to settle down. Whilst I am no expert on that region the place is a mess. The European Scramble for Africa will result in the same when those nations develop. Total cluster f*ck the lot of it; I wonder if there is a correlation to the date a country was first 'born' to major disruptive events in it's history?

Edited because it is sunday night, and I spell like a child
I agree, most modern nations take centuries to settle (look at Europe between 1815 to 1945) and the non-western post colonial nations are still at that settling phase. SWAT is may not be a very nice place to be at the moment, the government writ still runs there and it is arguable that the nation is no more effed up then say Bangladesh.
 
#7
JonnoJonno said:
Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
I am not sure if there will be imediate regime change but change there will be. The borders of Pakistan are a line on the map and there is huge disagreement on where they are on the ground. Outside of the major cities, loyalty to the Government (or more correctly a Central Authority) is an irrelevance. It may be called a country but a functioning country it isn't. And they have nukes :(

And the Intelligence Agencies are well out of control.
 
#8
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090316/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan

Pakistan to reinstate top judge, defusing crisis

Pakistan's government relented in a major confrontation with the opposition Monday, agreeing to reinstate a fired Supreme Court chief justice whose fate had sparked street fights and raised fears of political instability.

A dawn announcement by the prime minister that Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry would be sworn back in on March 21 capped a night of high drama and led activist lawyers to drop plans to march on the capital and stage a sit-in at Parliament later in the day.

The U.S. called the decision "statesmanlike," but it also was a significant concession that could weaken U.S.-allied President Asif Ali Zardari, who had long refused to restore the independent-minded Chaudhry despite demands by lawyers and opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. Already, attempts to quell the protest movement — through arrests and bans on rallies — have triggered cracks in the ruling party.
I don't think that mr.Chaudhry would keep silence about constant bombings of Pakistan by our American friends. Also corrupted widower of late mrs.Bhutto likely will be monitored in the tough way. So this potential (or actual?) American puppet would have some troubles.
 
#9
Islam is the only thing that that holds Pakistan together as a Nation.
Play with Islam and the the whole stinking mess of a country put together by Jinha to give a disgruntled politician a country to rule will come apart at the seams.
john
and Dear Leader, Tone trusted them with the lifeline of the British Army.
 
#10
General Ashfaq Kayani - The next president of Pakistan ?

From the Times

The Pakistani Army intervened yesterday to defuse a stand-off between the country’s political leaders that had threatened to undermine the fight against Islamist militants, and even force a return to military rule.

President Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, the opposition leader, appeared to be reaching a deal brokered by General Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief, in his first foray into national politics since civilian rule was restored a year ago Mr Zardari has made a big concession by agreeing to lift presidential rule of Punjab – Mr Sharif’s political heartland – and remove a legal bar against his holding public office. Aides said that the details were being worked out but the President would probably allow Mr Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) to choose a new chief minister of the province. General Kayani negotiated the truce in several rounds of meetings with the President and Yousuf Raza Gilani, the Prime Minister, as nationwide protests by lawyers and opposition activists continued for a second day.
A senior government official told The Times that General Kayani had warned the civilian leaders to take immediate steps to pull the nuclear-armed nation back from the brink of chaos.
Wonder if the US and UK will complain about the army's role in solving the crisis.
 
#11
I think I'll get a bet on...
 
#12
Is it going to kick off?

It already has (800 dead in past few months in Taliban bombings alone!), govt writ within the country runs thin at best outside the urban areas. They rode the back of the tiger attempting to control and fund the Taliban in the nineties and play regional chess all in a ludicrously batty concept of 'strategic depth' in case India invaded (as if India could be arsed!). Now they are reaping what they sow.

The only plus is that Pakistani electorate - to date at least - have continued to reject extremist parties at the ballot box.

*edited because of mong typing
 
#13
Just watched the Channel 4 Dispatches. If this is to be believd then the world will be in trouble in the next 5 years once Iran gets the bomb.
 
#15
PartTimePongo said:
I think I'll get a bet on...
Intresting little snippet from the Daily Times (Pak)

Kayani not going to take over: Mullen

* JCS chairman says COAS ‘wants to do the right thing for Pakistan’
* US officials closely monitoring protests

Daily Times Monitor

LAHORE: Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani is “committed to a civilian government” and does not want to take over like his predecessor General (r) Pervez Musharraf did in 1999, Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said on Thursday.

In an interview with PBS news, Mullen suggested he had attempted to calm Kayani on several occasions when the army chief had reportedly expressed anger at the way Pakistan’s political establishment was behaving. “I have had upwards of 10 interactions with Kayani. He wants to do the right thing for Pakistan. But he is in a very tough spot,” he added. There is not a “high probability right now” the political crisis will provoke Pakistani military to intervene, Mullen said
As much as Kayani has respect for the US, given his background, it has to be remembered that it is far too soon after Musharraf for the army to take over.
 
#16
frenchie said:
Related;

Dispatches; Pakistan's Taleban generation.

Just starting on C4 +1 (2100hrs).
It was a good program, one little health warning the situation in Karachi is muddled by the MQM stoking fears of whole scale Taliban infiltration amongst the Pathans of Karachi.
 
#17
If I had a flamethrower i would roast these slimy excreta
 
#18
I watched the Dispatches programme last night, and be honest it scared the shit out of me. My heart went out to those two little girls when they were talking to the female reporter, what sort of future have they got.

And the two lads in the camp one wanted to join the Taliban the other the Pakistani Army in order to kill the Taliban, the lad who wanted to join the Taliban to kill the infidel, his face was etched with hatred..it spoke volumes.

Respect to the female reporter not bad looking either.
 
#20
If it kicks off who gets involved?. The west cant afford to let the Taliban get control of Pakistan as it already has nukes. I think its just a matter of time before we have to intervene or we'll be looking at a bigger Afgan. The Pakistan Army dont seem up to the job.

It was scary to see how indoctrinated those kids were, only being aloud to read the koran all day every day. They turn them into brain washed zombies. Where in the koran does it say you should teach and use 5 year olds to carry out suicide attacks?.
 

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