Pakistan - Is it going to kick off?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by PartTimePongo, Mar 15, 2009.

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  1. Navi Sharif (sic) denies House Arrest and leads a march.

    Will the Army crack down, will there be tears before bedtime or are we looking at regime change looming in Pakistan?
  2. "Will the Army crack down, will there be tears before bedtime or are we looking at regime change looming in Pakistan?"

    No, No and No.

    Zardari will give in.

    Choudhary and co will be reinstated.
    The courts will rule that that Sharif and Bro are back in business.

    But that instability feeling will continue.

    But do you see what happens when you 'effing insist democracy when there are no real democratic parties but fiefdoms?
  3. Define 'looming'. Yes, there will inevitably be regime change, and yes there will be trouble in Pakistan for centuries to come. It is a false nation, created from tribal/cultural territories by Colonial botherers, and like the former Yugoslavia just love to kick off.

    Will foreign diplomatic intervention slow this process? Yes absolutely; but if you turn your back on this shower just for a second they'll mess it up.
  4. Most nations are false constructs, if Pakistan was to collapse it would have done so in '71. There is defined national consciousness and you have to remember one way that successive Pakistani governments get the west to come running is to say that that the nation is one the precipice.
  5. Modern false construct- they will take years to settle down. Whilst I am no expert on that region the place is a mess. The European Scramble for Africa will result in the same when those nations develop. Total cluster f*ck the lot of it; I wonder if there is a correlation to the date a country was first 'born' to major disruptive events in it's history?

    Edited because it is sunday night, and I spell like a child
  6. I agree, most modern nations take centuries to settle (look at Europe between 1815 to 1945) and the non-western post colonial nations are still at that settling phase. SWAT is may not be a very nice place to be at the moment, the government writ still runs there and it is arguable that the nation is no more effed up then say Bangladesh.
  7. I am not sure if there will be imediate regime change but change there will be. The borders of Pakistan are a line on the map and there is huge disagreement on where they are on the ground. Outside of the major cities, loyalty to the Government (or more correctly a Central Authority) is an irrelevance. It may be called a country but a functioning country it isn't. And they have nukes :(

    And the Intelligence Agencies are well out of control.

    I don't think that mr.Chaudhry would keep silence about constant bombings of Pakistan by our American friends. Also corrupted widower of late mrs.Bhutto likely will be monitored in the tough way. So this potential (or actual?) American puppet would have some troubles.
  9. Islam is the only thing that that holds Pakistan together as a Nation.
    Play with Islam and the the whole stinking mess of a country put together by Jinha to give a disgruntled politician a country to rule will come apart at the seams.
    and Dear Leader, Tone trusted them with the lifeline of the British Army.
  10. General Ashfaq Kayani - The next president of Pakistan ?

    From the Times

    Wonder if the US and UK will complain about the army's role in solving the crisis.
  11. I think I'll get a bet on...
  12. Is it going to kick off?

    It already has (800 dead in past few months in Taliban bombings alone!), govt writ within the country runs thin at best outside the urban areas. They rode the back of the tiger attempting to control and fund the Taliban in the nineties and play regional chess all in a ludicrously batty concept of 'strategic depth' in case India invaded (as if India could be arsed!). Now they are reaping what they sow.

    The only plus is that Pakistani electorate - to date at least - have continued to reject extremist parties at the ballot box.

    *edited because of mong typing
  13. Just watched the Channel 4 Dispatches. If this is to be believd then the world will be in trouble in the next 5 years once Iran gets the bomb.
  14. Related;

    Dispatches; Pakistan's Taleban generation.

    Just starting on C4 +1 (2100hrs).
  15. Intresting little snippet from the Daily Times (Pak)

    As much as Kayani has respect for the US, given his background, it has to be remembered that it is far too soon after Musharraf for the army to take over.