Pakistan fighting for survival

#2
Pararegtom said:
So no suprise there then, Heads and sand come to mind. in the immortal words of Morecombe and Wise "Bring me Sunshine"


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8041364.stm
There is some truth in saying that Pakistan is fighting for survival. I hope it wins and forces the militants out of Pakistan and then prevents their return. More than just Pakistan is at risk here.

Imagine AQ/Taleban with nukes. Do you doubt that they would use them?
 
#3
I think there is now a chance to finish TB and AQ if everyone works together with Pakistan.But it will need funding and commitment from all the Governments involved.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#4
To what extent (qn for those who know the area better) are the Pak army and Int infiltrated by fundamentalist sympathisers/sleepers?
 
#5
The Pak army does not like fighting The Taliban, many of them are after all are cherished strategic assets of Lahore's finest. The army exists to ward off the Hindu Infidel while heroically lining its senior officers deep pockets not this internecine dirty work.

While Pakistan may fragment it's hard to imagine the Taliban actually getting to rule the place. Their puritan regime was a pretty uncomfortable fit with much of traditional Afghan society. As foreign as Communism in some ways. They are even more alien to the Punjab, see article below. Stranger things have happened of course, few had their money on Khomeini's gloomy revolution after the Shah fell and it is still trudging doggedly along.

What's more likely is in this chaos the staunchly Islamist end of the officer corps takes charge. Cuts a deal with their Taliban mates. Basically guaranteeing their rear basing and supply chain for their Jihad against the Farangi in the North. It wouldn't actually be that inconsistent with the current results of our dear ally Mushies policies. I do wonder how much of this has been a charade for DC's benefit.

Mind, the Pak officer corps are pretty scary in their own right. They have a history of atrocity that makes the Taliban look like boy scouts. Their idea of unifying the country may well involve starting a proper ruck with India.

From Col Lang's blog:
[align=center]Kiracofe on AFPAK[/align]
The Neo-COINists, Neocons, and assorted members of the Imperial faction wringing their hands about "AFPAK" and drinking their snake oil and opium cocktails. Meanwhile there is ground reality.

With respect to Punjab (Panjab) a serious assessment of Taliban penetration on the Pak side of the border would be useful.

It should be obvious even to casual observers by now that Taliban are a Wahhabized takfiri movement of Pushtuns (Pashtuns, Pathans). They (Wahhabized Pushtuns) were empowered by the Zia dictatorship for Cold War purposes and then by Benazir (yes Benazir with a wink from the US Clinton Admin) for hydrocarbon (UNOCAL) and "strategic depth" Pak purposes.

Historically, the penetration of Wahhabism into the subcontinent is via the Deobandi sect. It came directly from...yes the Arabian peninsula through missionaries in the 18th century. So this is not new.

Since the late 1970s, the Saudis have funded the Wahhabization of the Subcontinent region with the Deobandis as a key component.

Perhaps the merry band of 40ish NeoCOINist officers (and a certain Australian buddy of theirs) should take their pasty white faces out of the library and get the asses into the field and into the dung-littered mud.

Here, for example, is a recent take on Pak Punjab (predominantly Berelvi) from a Pak analyst which could be assessed:

"The New York Times reports that Taliban insurgents are teaming up with local militant groups to make inroads in Punjab, and that in at least five towns in southern and western Punjab, including Multan, barber shops, music centres and internet cafes offensive to the militants’ strict interpretation of Islam have received threats.

"The report has instigated a blistering debate here in Punjab on whether, in the days to come, the Taliban can really take over Pakistan’s largest province. Some recent incidents, including attacks on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore and the Manawan Police Training School, raised fears to new heights and many believe that the Taliban, known to have their roots in the tribal culture of frontier region and Afghanistan, have the capacity to expand their control to other parts of Pakistan, most importantly to Punjab.

"The Taliban school of thought simply cannot win support in Punjab. I rest my opinion on three fundamentals because of which the Taliban cannot win in Punjab.

"First, the Taliban philosophy is based on the strict Deobandi school of Islam, which has no room for saints and shrines. The majority of Punjabi Muslims are followers of the Barelvi school; which revolves around the saint and his shrine. Punjabi Muslims have always been emotionality attached with shrines and sufis. When the Taliban locked the mausoleum of Pir Baba in Buner, Punjabi Muslims felt offended, despite the fact that Pir Baba is not a well-known saintly figure in Punjab.

"No one can dare think of closing down the shrines of Data Ganj Bakhsh, Hazrat Mian Mir or Bahauddin Zakaria. Almost every village in Punjab has a shrine, and for Barelvis, shrines are nearly as sacred as mosques. This is not in conformity with the orthodox Ahle Hadith or Deobandi traditions, which do not recognise the shrine or mazar as a religious symbol. In fact, they consider reverence of shrines as apostasy (shirk).

"Second, there is no doubt that Punjabi rural society is caste-based and people care for castes in inter se relationships. However, by no means does this make it a tribal society. The customs even in remote Punjabi villages are far more liberal than tribal customs. The position of women in this society is more elevated than in tribal society; they enjoy more liberties, and in many cases are the sole decision makers.

"In an agricultural economy like Punjab, women are as important as men. In rural Punjab, women working in the fields is a common sight; subjecting them to strict veil and domestic confinement as is the case in the tribal areas of Afghanistan is unimaginable in Punjab.

"In urban centres like Lahore, Multan, Rawalpindi and Faisalabad, women are enjoying an even higher status than in the rural areas. Therefore, it will not be possible for anyone to subject women in Punjab to the kind of restrictions that the Taliban have imposed in the areas under their control. The same applies for harsh punishments: the death penalty was abolished in the area between Delhi and Lahore much before its abolition in the United Kingdom. The reaction to public hanging during the Zia era was so severe that the government was forced to review its policy after only one execution.

"The third reason is the strong emphasis in the Punjabi lower and middle class on education. Even families with income levels as low as Rs 4000 to Rs 6000 per month take pains to send their children, including females, to school. Hence, this very strong societal force will deeply resist any ideology that restricts people from educating their children. Further, proliferation of the free media and a strong cultural base are two other factors that will make it extremely difficult for the Taliban to establish themselves in Punjab."...
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\05\08\story_8-5-2009_pg3_5


On Barelvis see,

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-barelvi.htm

Clifford Kiracofe
 
#6
What's all this 'Pak Army' bollocks?

Surely 'Paki Army' is short for Pakistani Army considering 'Paki' is short for 'Pakistani'?

Are you's afraid of upsetting the PC brigade? What's becoming of this country FFS!
 
#7
As ever, thanks for your posts alib!
 
#11
#12
Fallschirmjager said:
Tom_of_Bedlam said:
Pak Army is the conventional abbreviation on the subcontinent.
No it's not. It's just the internet not wanting to use the word 'Paki'.
Ah yes as in "Paki barsteward", a colloquial British English designation for all the peoples of the Indian subcontinent.

This term is not much in use in policy circles as it is:
a) imprecise and
b) only favored by retarded kunts and royalty
 
#13
Pakistan has brought this upon itself. The madrasses, TB & AQ recruiting centres period. Giving into terrorism with the swat valley. Eveb Blair who gave into the IRA did not hand them XMG. Back in 2002 when we did have TB on the back foot however they were in all but name given refuge in Pakistan. Post 7/7 we could have put some pressure on Pakistan, instead we tried to appease sorry engage with the home grown communities not very succeswsfully I might add.
Benazir Bhutto (brilliant lady) could have been the answer but after she was topped her legacy was not followed up. Now Pakistan has a weedy appeasing government, who promotes cowardice (checkout the recent police and the cricket team a few months back). Why should their Army act in any different way?
It might be more politically correct for a UN Army (If one exists) to clear out the insurgents, but they will have to have a mandate to rectify some of the problems that Pakistan has brought upon itself.
 
#14
On Jamestown Taliban Leader Mullah Nazir Defends Jihad in South Waziristan
May 8, 2009 03:56 PM Age: 2 days
Category: Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, South Asia, Terrorism, Terrorism Monitor, Featured
By: Abdul Hameed Bakier
...
When asked why the mujahideen fight the democratic and Islamic government of Pakistan, Maulvi Nazir said Pakistan is run by an infidel government equivalent to Christian and Jewish governments, corroborating his claim by quoting a verse from the Quran that forbids Muslims from allying themselves with Christians and Jews. In typical Salafi fashion, Maulvi Nazir considers democracy a defective and mundane system devised by Western infidels. “Any system resulting from counting the votes of Shiites, Christians and alcoholic electors is a blasphemous and defunct system.” On the legitimacy of the mujahideen drive to implement Shari’a, Mullah Nazir said the religious scholars and shaykhs that support Shari’a had either been arrested or killed by the regime. The mujahideen consider Islamabad’s approval of Shari’a in some areas in Pakistan a hoax to manipulate the Mujahideen into laying down their arms. The mujahideen will only do this when Shari’a is applied across all of Pakistan.

Mullah Nazir is sure the rocket attacks that have killed many mujahideen are perpetrated by the Pakistani army with the help of U.S. forces and not solely by the Americans, as the Islamabad government claims. According to the Mullah, Pakistani spies use SIM tracking systems to pinpoint mujahideen locations for attack. Mullah Nazir promised no amnesty for government agents captured by the mujahideen, threatening to kill them immediately. He also pledged to shoot down Pakistani spy planes, such as the two planes shot down by anti-aircraft guns near the city of Angur Adda a few months ago. On suicide bombings, Mullah Nazir denied mujahideen involvement in the bombings of mosques and crowded places and accused the ISI of carrying out the attacks to undermine the mujahideen. In spite of the war waged by the Pakistani government against the mujahideen, Mullah Nazir claims that mujahideen morale is very high and they will continue their jihad until they reach Islamabad.

Jihad in Kashmir has not achieved the desired goals, says Mullah Nazir, who claims the Kashmir jihad was administered by the ISI. Such jihad is not favorable to the mujahideen because Pakistan will not implement Shari’a law after liberating Kashmir. Nazir instead calls for the Kashmir mujahideen to join the jihad in Waziristan.

Mullah Nazir claims the U.S. forces in Afghanistan are confined to their barracks and no longer dare to move around because the mujahideen control many parts of the country. He predicts the complete liberation of Afghanistan in the near future. The imminent defeat of the United States in Afghanistan will accelerate its collapse, similar to the fate of the Soviet Union. The Israeli state will face the same fate very soon after that. Finally, Mullah Nazir is not optimistic about the new American president’s policies on Afghanistan or Pakistan; in that regard Mullah Nazir says “The white idiot left and the black idiot took over.”
...
These fellas have been really buying into the Ayman al-Zawahiri's far enemy rhetoric lately. The Taliban used to be just ISI paid stoutly xenophobic God botherers with a very Pashtun focus. This is worrying if they actually are spreading their popular base in the cosmopolitan Pakistani population. A chaotic and protracted war amongst the people is another possibility.

If devoutly Buddhist Vietnamese peasantry can be converted over to Maoism by a full rice bowls, the odd exemplary execution and lots of shouting who is to say another revolutionary agenda might not eventually seeded on the unpromising social terrain of the Punjab by similar methods?

Also on Jamestown Europol Report Describes Afghanistan-Pakistan Connection to Trends in European Terrorism
May 8, 2009 04:03 PM Age: 2 days
Category: Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page, Military/Security, Europe, Terrorism Monitor
By: Thomas Renard
...
Although most European countries recognize that Afghanistan and Pakistan constitute a threat to their security, they generally tend to see the military operations in Afghanistan more as a part of the problem than as a part of the solution. Mirroring this point of view, the Europol report states that “a number of member states judge that they continue to face a high-level threat from Islamist terrorism for reasons that include [a] military presence in Iraq or Afghanistan,” but nowhere does the report mention the fact that European military and civilian missions in conflict zones could help strengthen EU homeland security.

Last month, however, the European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, announced a new three-year, €225 million program aimed at combating terrorism and the trafficking of WMDs (AFP, April 17). This program will focus on Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are described as “bases for radicalization and terrorist training,” as well as the Sahel region where the threat is “growing”. In both regions, the program proposes to support the establishment of anti-terrorism structures, the formation of competent authorities, and the development of regional cooperation. Nevertheless, with only a few details of the plan available, it is not yet possible to assess whether this program inextricably links stability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region with European security, or whether it is more a program destined to compensate for European lack of commitment to the mission or prepare for a future disengagement from Afghanistan.
...
At the moment our military efforts North of the Durand Line are peripheral to the main conflict. What amounts to a civil war spreading out of FATA and into Pakistan proper.

This isn't Iraq, a distant conflict over resources and alliances. Our relationship with this bit of the world can be compared with that of France to Algeria. Socially the Punjab is practically the near abroad of the UK and to a lesser extent Canada.

There are about 200,000 Pashtuns resident in the UK, there are over two million Punjabi's (80% Muslim), that's the bulk of the UK's relatively small Muslim population. My expectation is this population will generally react as France's Algerians did to the bloody internecine Takfiri war of the 90s, they''ll be disgusted at the zealots bone headed brutality and spurn the raving beards for decades. Some however will be radicalized by what they'll see as a Western proxy war. The "Pissed Off Iraqi" effect only in Bradford or Bolton.
 
#15
alib said:
The Taliban used to be just ISI paid stoutly xenophobic God botherers with a very Pashtun focus. This is worrying if they actually are spreading their popular base in the cosmopolitan Pakistani population. A chaotic and protracted war amongst the people is another possibility.
If devoutly Buddhist Vietnamese peasantry can be converted over to Maoism by a full rice bowls, the odd exemplary execution and lots of shouting who is to say another revolutionary agenda might not eventually seeded on the unpromising social terrain of the Punjab by similar methods?
alib, what are, in your opinion, the chances of that happening? This IS the difference between homogeneous Persia and Pakistan and the key to the outcome of these worrying developments.

Last month, however, the European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, announced a new three-year, €225 million program aimed at combating terrorism and the trafficking of WMDs (AFP, April 17).
I think the EU spends more on the protection of French regional frog-leg marinade production rights... :x
 
#16
Why shouldn't the UN just request the extermination of these people. a 1off gesture. The world would be a better place as a result. Maybe Hitler had the right idea about the jews , eh
 
#17
Here - See for your self. People are just terrified of saying Paki...

Back to the subject in question. This is what you get for ignoring the obvious and not doing what they should have been doing several years ago.
 
#18
para_medic said:
alib said:
The Taliban used to be just ISI paid stoutly xenophobic God botherers with a very Pashtun focus. This is worrying if they actually are spreading their popular base in the cosmopolitan Pakistani population. A chaotic and protracted war amongst the people is another possibility.
If devoutly Buddhist Vietnamese peasantry can be converted over to Maoism by a full rice bowls, the odd exemplary execution and lots of shouting who is to say another revolutionary agenda might not eventually seeded on the unpromising social terrain of the Punjab by similar methods?
alib, what are, in your opinion, the chances of that happening? This IS the difference between homogeneous Persia and Pakistan and the key to the outcome of these worrying developments.
...
I think it unlikely the Takfiri cause will appeal to Punjabi's. Unlike Maoist the Takfiri ideology has a very poor record as a sustained mass mobilizer, you could add al Anbar to their catalog of failure.

The arguments Kiracofe makes above are pretty compelling. Of course the same Sufi leanings are present in Afghanistan. Indeed there are many documented cases of Salafi "Afghan Arabs" being shot by Afghans outraged by their treatment of graves and shrines.

Perhaps given a long enough period of chaos this could change. The people of Kabul welcomed the Taliban after the anarchy of the UIF's rule. The likelihood is elements in the Pak army will make their move long before that. Question is just how openly hostile they'll be to our interests? Will they be a wily false friend like Mushie milking DC for aid while sheltering the Taliban or populist rabble rousing defenders of the faith waving their nukes at the hated Hindu and Farangi.

Incidentally neither Iran nor Pakistan is as homogeneous as Vietnam. Both have a patchwork of ethnicities, in the latter's case this is a bewilderingly complex mesh of ethnicity, sect and clan.

Persian imperial identity was already formed in classical times and as now has often included its baggage train of other ethnicities Arabs, Azeris, Kurds and Balochis in its power structures.

In contrast we have the flaky construct of sectarian identity politics like Pakistan. An object lesson in the perils of rash self determination. Permanently imperiled by it's larger Hindu neighbor which has proved a distressingly successful host to its Muslim minority. Islamabad's been incompetently ruled by a corrupt elite and dominated by a bonkers military. Even considering its been propped up by Riyadh, DC and Beijing it is amazing Pakistan has survived for six decades.
 
#19
Mullah Nazir claims the U.S. forces in Afghanistan are confined to their barracks and no longer dare to move around because the mujahideen control many parts of the country. He predicts the complete liberation of Afghanistan in the near future. The imminent defeat of the United States in Afghanistan will accelerate its collapse, similar to the fate of the Soviet Union. The Israeli state will face the same fate very soon after that. Finally, Mullah Nazir is not optimistic about the new American president’s policies on Afghanistan or Pakistan; in that regard Mullah Nazir says “The white idiot left and the black idiot took over.”
With "intelligence reports" like this it's obvious he's on a winner and knows what he is talking about. :roll: , although the last statement made me laugh.
 
#20
alib said:
The arguments Kiracofe makes above are pretty compelling.
You mean Chaudhry Fawad Hussain and the 3 reasons.
(...)Perhaps given a long enough period of chaos this could change. The people of Kabul welcomed the Taliban after the anarchy of the UIF's rule. The likelihood is elements in the Pak army will make their move long before that.
OK, not so bad.
Question is just how openly hostile they'll be to our interests? Will they be a wily false friend like Mushie milking DC for aid while sheltering the Taliban or populist rabble rousing defenders of the faith waving their nukes at the hated Hindu and Farangi.
In such a situation of internal chaos they would probably welcome one stable border ie with India.
(...)
Persian imperial identity was already formed in classical times and as now has often included its baggage train of other ethnicities Arabs, Azeris, Kurds and Balochis in its power structures.
In contrast we have the flaky construct of sectarian identity politics like Pakistan. (...)
Thats what I meant, honest :wink:
 

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