P8 MMA/MPA thread.

Yokel

LE
Back to the P-8:


Actually I found this via Henry Jones' Twitter feed. The article is here:

The P8 Story - We Have a Programme

In the last post, I outlined how we conducted our analysis and submitted a business case for consideration in the Strategic Defence and Security Review of 2015. Well, on the day of the SDSR announcement I was 3 decks down in one of the Royal Navy’s submarines. When we surfaced, we found out the result: P-8A had been chosen, we were to have 9 of them and they would be based at RAF Lossiemouth, the Station I had commanded a few years previously and the natural choice given the direction of the threat.
 
Back to the P-8:


Actually I found this via Henry Jones' Twitter feed. The article is here:

The P8 Story - We Have a Programme

In the last post, I outlined how we conducted our analysis and submitted a business case for consideration in the Strategic Defence and Security Review of 2015. Well, on the day of the SDSR announcement I was 3 decks down in one of the Royal Navy’s submarines. When we surfaced, we found out the result: P-8A had been chosen, we were to have 9 of them and they would be based at RAF Lossiemouth, the Station I had commanded a few years previously and the natural choice given the direction of the threat.
Nice article.

But just for a sec, I thought these two were a couple. Then looked at the flags. ;)

 
They proposed this (A320 MPA)= to the RAF and also complained there was no MPA competition. ( Carefully Ignoring the P1 )

Unsurprisingly the UK wasn't willing to be the sole development partner for a unique type that existed only as a quick sketch.

Unless France and Germany sign up to it - its going to be a non starter
 
...Unless France and Germany sign up to it...
I suspect they will although it’s only really France that has a requirement for a ‘deep water’ MPA.

Regards,
MM
 
I suspect they will although it’s only really France that has a requirement for a ‘deep water’ MPA.

Regards,
MM
There's a joint program involving France, Germany, Canada, and a number of other countries to develop a joint specification for a new MPA. It has been mentioned previously on at least one thread here (possibly this one). What will likely emerge is two specifications, one for a top end MPA, and one for a more basic model on a different air frame for the smaller countries. It is also not out of the question for Canada to take the specification and end up going in its own direction for an actual plane.

Note this is so far a "specification", not an actual development program. I think that the target date for having actual planes is some time later in the next decade. What you are seeing from Airbus is I suspect them following along on that program and positioning themselves to be ready to participate in that program when it's given the go ahead.

This project doesn't fit the UK's timeline for having new planes, so it's not really relevant for that.
 

Mattb

LE
What is a deep water MPA? Not familiar with terminology.
Deep water is generally found further from land, so it’s an aircraft with longer range. Given the size of the search area (both surface area and depth) it also generally implies a more capable sensor suite.
 
What is a deep water MPA? Not familiar with terminology.
Apologies, it’s not an officially recognised description.

However, I’d use it interchangeably with (equally undefined) terms such as ‘blue water MPA’ or ‘high-end MPA.’ In essence, I’d define an MPA as an aeroplane capable of conducting the full range of ASuW and ASW tasks (find, fix and finish...aka kill) in all hydrology conditions within and beyond the continental shelf boundary. ‘Deep’ or ‘Blue Water’ ASW are (again purely to me) those tasks which are conducted beyond the continental shelf in far larger, more complex and demanding battlespace, water and acoustic conditions.

Norway, the US, Canada and France are the only NATO nations with a credible ‘deep-water’ ASW ability; the UK will re-join that club in the next few years as P-8 approaches FOC. The informed observer will note that all of the above have either competing maritime interests with Russia or a strategic national deterrent based on SSBNs.

Japan, Australia and NZ are the only other nations who I’d suggest have a credible ‘deep-water’ ASW MPA capability.

Therefore, while most NATO nations claim to have ‘MPA’ in service, these are often little more than glorified Coast Guard aeroplanes with limited or zero ASW capability.

Th only ‘high-end’ new-build MPA available today are the P-8 and Kawasaki P-1. While Germany has no need or interest in such a capability, I have no doubt that France will aggressively pursue their own national/European ‘deep-water MPA’ replacement for their Atlantique 2+s, most likely based on the A320/A321 family.

However, as the US has found with the P-8, basing that solution on an airliner designed for high altitude, non-dynamic flying will bring its own challenges, particularly given the very limited market for such a platform post P-1/P-8.

...This project doesn't fit the UK's timeline for having new planes, so it's not really relevant for that.
We’ve bought P-8 so another type is a non-starter.

Regards,
MM
 
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Apologies, it’s not an officially recognised description.

However, I’d use it interchangeably with (equally undefined) terms such as ‘blue water MPA’ or ‘high-end MPA.’ In essence, I’d define an MPA as an aeroplane capable of conducting the full range of ASuW and ASW tasks (find, fix and finish...aka kill) in all hydrology conditions within and beyond the continental shelf boundary. ‘Deep’ or ‘Blue Water’ ASW are (again purely to me) those tasks which are conducted beyond the continental shelf in far larger, more complex and demanding battlespace, water and acoustic conditions.

Norway, the US, Canada and France are the only NATO nations with a credible ‘deep-water’ ASW ability; the UK will re-join that club in the next few years as P-8 approaches FOC. The informed observer will note that all of the above have either competing maritime interests with Russia or a strategic national deterrent based on SSBNs.

Japan, Australia and NZ are the only other nations who I’d suggest have a credible ‘deep-water’ ASW MPA capability.

Therefore, while most NATO nations claim to have ‘MPA’ in service, these are often little more than glorified Coast Guard aeroplanes with limited or zero ASW capability.

Th only ‘high-end’ new-build MPA available today are the P-8 and Kawasaki P-1. While Germany has no need or interest in such a capability, I have no doubt that France will aggressively pursue their own national/European ‘deep-water MPA’ replacement for their Atlantique 2+s, most likely based on the A320/A321 family.

However, as the US has found with the P-8, basing that solution on an airliner designed for high altitude, non-dynamic flying will bring its own challenges, particularly given the very limited market for such a platform post P-1/P-8.



We’ve bought P-8 so another type is a non-starter.

Regards,
MM
Thank you for that well informed post.

That potential plans for the A320 NEO platform seems promising though. Maybe not a UK thingy, could work for the mainland EUs.
 
They proposed this (A320 MPA)= to the RAF and also complained there was no MPA competition. ( Carefully Ignoring the P1 )

Unsurprisingly the UK wasn't willing to be the sole development partner for a unique type that existed only as a quick sketch.

Unless France and Germany sign up to it - its going to be a non starter

The P1 seemed really good and tailored for the role. But the scale of economics worked against it.
 
The P1 seemed really good and tailored for the role. But the scale of economics worked against it.
The P-1 is superior to the P-8 is several respects; it is after all the first type designed from the outset as an MPA since the Atlantique in the late 50s. It was a great shame that Japan lacked the production capacity to meet our demands.

Regards,
MM
 
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(...) We’ve bought P-8 so another type is a non-starter. (...)
It's probably more accurate to put it the other way around. The UK bought the P-8 because other than the Japanese P1 the alternatives were too far in the future to fit the UK time line.

(...) Therefore, while most NATO nations claim to have ‘MPA’ in service, these are often little more than glorified Coast Guard aeroplanes with limited or zero ASW capability. (...)
What many countries want is something to do fisheries patrol, sovereignty patrol, SAR, policing of smuggling and illegal migrant trafficking, etc.

I can't find the article which said the joint project would likely involve two different aircraft specifications, but here's a couple of relevant links.
The NATO announcement of the joint multinational MPA development effort.
This involves France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. It mentions a 2025 to 2035 time frame, which is too late for the UK, who want planes right now.

This article says that Japan want to participate and will propose their P-1 as the basis for a new development.

Airbus are proposing to have it based on the A320neo, and Dassault want to use the Falcon 8x. With respect to the last, recall that I previously said that I read there will likely be two different planes with different levels of capability resulting from this.

According to this source, combined French and German requirements are expected to be 20 to 25 aircraft to replace their Atlantique 2 and P-3C Orions.
 
It's probably more accurate to put it the other way around. The UK bought the P-8 because other than the Japanese P1 the alternatives were too far in the future to fit the UK time line.


What many countries want is something to do fisheries patrol, sovereignty patrol, SAR, policing of smuggling and illegal migrant trafficking, etc.

I can't find the article which said the joint project would likely involve two different aircraft specifications, but here's a couple of relevant links.
The NATO announcement of the joint multinational MPA development effort.
This involves France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. It mentions a 2025 to 2035 time frame, which is too late for the UK, who want planes right now.

This article says that Japan want to participate and will propose their P-1 as the basis for a new development.

Airbus are proposing to have it based on the A320neo, and Dassault want to use the Falcon 8x. With respect to the last, recall that I previously said that I read there will likely be two different planes with different levels of capability resulting from this.

According to this source, combined French and German requirements are expected to be 20 to 25 aircraft to replace their Atlantique 2 and P-3C Orions.
What was the combined French and German purchase’s of the A400?, for work share? How many have been purchased and how many have been cancelled?
 
What was the combined French and German purchase’s of the A400?, for work share? How many have been purchased and how many have been cancelled?
And the relevance to MPA is?

Of the list of countries participating is: France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. Of those seven countries, four a currently operating long range MPA (France, Canada, Germany, and Spain). Spain has three P-3 Orions.

I suspect that Greece, Italy, and Turkey are only interested in smaller planes that will operate over the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Italy currently operates the ATR 72 ASW in that role. I believe that plane is relatively new, so I wouldn't be surprised if their interest in the project is to get their plane positioned as the smaller version and sell it to Greece (if they have any money) and Turkey (if Turkey doesn't get put on a NATO black list).

Spain may or may not replace their three P-3 Orions, I don't know what their plans are, and I don't know if they know themselves what their plans are.

As I said before, I would not be surprised if Canada went along with the project for the research and specification phase but then came up with our own solution for the actual finished product, much as we currently do now (CP 140 Aurora).

France and Germany seem interested in cooking up a solution themselves and then presenting it as a fait accompli. If it's just the two of them buying it then how they dish out the work between the two of them is their problem.

As noted above, Japan are also trying to get involved, and I have read several sources that said Saab were promoting their Swordfish MPA as well. If you want to look for work-share conspiracies, then Canada might be at least partially motivated to try to promote the Saab Swordfish to the countries who want a smaller plane as that one has considerable Canadian content in the form of the airframe and also some of the surveillance and signal processing kit. I have no evidence for that, but there's yet another ulterior commercial motive if you want to look for one.

The end result could be three entirely different aircraft, one for Italy, Greece, Turkey, and possibly Spain, another one for France, Germany, and possibly a couple for Spain, and another one for Canada. Canada is in the midst of major upgrades to our existing aircraft and won't be buying new ones until some time in the 2030s, so a lot could change in that time.

To get back to the real point however, none of the above is relevant to the UK because the time lines simply don't overlap. The UK wants planes which can be delivered right now while these other projects (aside from the Swordfish) are all looking much further out into the next decade or the one beyond.
 
And the relevance to MPA is?

Of the list of countries participating is: France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. Of those seven countries, four a currently operating long range MPA (France, Canada, Germany, and Spain). Spain has three P-3 Orions.

I suspect that Greece, Italy, and Turkey are only interested in smaller planes that will operate over the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Italy currently operates the ATR 72 ASW in that role. I believe that plane is relatively new, so I wouldn't be surprised if their interest in the project is to get their plane positioned as the smaller version and sell it to Greece (if they have any money) and Turkey (if Turkey doesn't get put on a NATO black list).

Spain may or may not replace their three P-3 Orions, I don't know what their plans are, and I don't know if they know themselves what their plans are.

As I said before, I would not be surprised if Canada went along with the project for the research and specification phase but then came up with our own solution for the actual finished product, much as we currently do now (CP 140 Aurora).

France and Germany seem interested in cooking up a solution themselves and then presenting it as a fait accompli. If it's just the two of them buying it then how they dish out the work between the two of them is their problem.

As noted above, Japan are also trying to get involved, and I have read several sources that said Saab were promoting their Swordfish MPA as well. If you want to look for work-share conspiracies, then Canada might be at least partially motivated to try to promote the Saab Swordfish to the countries who want a smaller plane as that one has considerable Canadian content in the form of the airframe and also some of the surveillance and signal processing kit. I have no evidence for that, but there's yet another ulterior commercial motive if you want to look for one.

The end result could be three entirely different aircraft, one for Italy, Greece, Turkey, and possibly Spain, another one for France, Germany, and possibly a couple for Spain, and another one for Canada. Canada is in the midst of major upgrades to our existing aircraft and won't be buying new ones until some time in the 2030s, so a lot could change in that time.

To get back to the real point however, none of the above is relevant to the UK because the time lines simply don't overlap. The UK wants planes which can be delivered right now while these other projects (aside from the Swordfish) are all looking much further out into the next decade or the one beyond.
Who will buy P8 or P1, unless they are German or French, many nations have been burned buy the promise of work share etc. No one apart from the Germans or French will subsidise the Airbus 319-20 MPA.
 

Yokel

LE
Slight off topic - I once found a book about the modern Royal Navy by Paul Beaver, written just after the Falklands War, in my local library. Whilst talking about the Sea Harrier, and proposed upgrades (or alternatives), he then suggested that a (V/STOL) jet could have an ASW mission - dropping a sonobouy for monitoring by helicopter.

Yeah well that made sense. However, would it be possible to integrate infomation from other aircraft, or even deliver sonobouys, to extend the sensor footprint? Or RPVs?
 
Who will buy P8 or P1, unless they are German or French, many nations have been burned buy the promise of work share etc. No one apart from the Germans or French will subsidise the Airbus 319-20 MPA.
Who do you think constitutes the potential market for large, long range ASW MPA over the next 10 to 15 years? Answer that question before you start declaring who is going to buy what.
 
And the relevance to MPA is?

Of the list of countries participating is: France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. Of those seven countries, four a currently operating long range MPA (France, Canada, Germany, and Spain). Spain has three P-3 Orions.

I suspect that Greece, Italy, and Turkey are only interested in smaller planes that will operate over the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Italy currently operates the ATR 72 ASW in that role. I believe that plane is relatively new, so I wouldn't be surprised if their interest in the project is to get their plane positioned as the smaller version and sell it to Greece (if they have any money) and Turkey (if Turkey doesn't get put on a NATO black list).

Spain may or may not replace their three P-3 Orions, I don't know what their plans are, and I don't know if they know themselves what their plans are.

As I said before, I would not be surprised if Canada went along with the project for the research and specification phase but then came up with our own solution for the actual finished product, much as we currently do now (CP 140 Aurora).

France and Germany seem interested in cooking up a solution themselves and then presenting it as a fait accompli. If it's just the two of them buying it then how they dish out the work between the two of them is their problem.

As noted above, Japan are also trying to get involved, and I have read several sources that said Saab were promoting their Swordfish MPA as well. If you want to look for work-share conspiracies, then Canada might be at least partially motivated to try to promote the Saab Swordfish to the countries who want a smaller plane as that one has considerable Canadian content in the form of the airframe and also some of the surveillance and signal processing kit. I have no evidence for that, but there's yet another ulterior commercial motive if you want to look for one.

The end result could be three entirely different aircraft, one for Italy, Greece, Turkey, and possibly Spain, another one for France, Germany, and possibly a couple for Spain, and another one for Canada. Canada is in the midst of major upgrades to our existing aircraft and won't be buying new ones until some time in the 2030s, so a lot could change in that time.

To get back to the real point however, none of the above is relevant to the UK because the time lines simply don't overlap. The UK wants planes which can be delivered right now while these other projects (aside from the Swordfish) are all looking much further out into the next decade or the one beyond.
The fox in your coop is the EU Defence funding initiative - that could skew funding towards the Franco-German solution and tie in other EU MS - stand fast Turkey. Many a smaller MS is now interested in deterring Russian intentions to investigate the state of their former vassals shorelines and infrastructure - SAAB has the intellectual heft to bring much to the party.
 
And the relevance to MPA is?

Of the list of countries participating is: France, Germany, Canada, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey. Of those seven countries, four a currently operating long range MPA (France, Canada, Germany, and Spain). Spain has three P-3 Orions.

I suspect that Greece, Italy, and Turkey are only interested in smaller planes that will operate over the Mediterranean and Black Sea. Italy currently operates the ATR 72 ASW in that role. I believe that plane is relatively new, so I wouldn't be surprised if their interest in the project is to get their plane positioned as the smaller version and sell it to Greece (if they have any money) and Turkey (if Turkey doesn't get put on a NATO black list).

Spain may or may not replace their three P-3 Orions, I don't know what their plans are, and I don't know if they know themselves what their plans are.

As I said before, I would not be surprised if Canada went along with the project for the research and specification phase but then came up with our own solution for the actual finished product, much as we currently do now (CP 140 Aurora).

France and Germany seem interested in cooking up a solution themselves and then presenting it as a fait accompli. If it's just the two of them buying it then how they dish out the work between the two of them is their problem.

As noted above, Japan are also trying to get involved, and I have read several sources that said Saab were promoting their Swordfish MPA as well. If you want to look for work-share conspiracies, then Canada might be at least partially motivated to try to promote the Saab Swordfish to the countries who want a smaller plane as that one has considerable Canadian content in the form of the airframe and also some of the surveillance and signal processing kit. I have no evidence for that, but there's yet another ulterior commercial motive if you want to look for one.

The end result could be three entirely different aircraft, one for Italy, Greece, Turkey, and possibly Spain, another one for France, Germany, and possibly a couple for Spain, and another one for Canada. Canada is in the midst of major upgrades to our existing aircraft and won't be buying new ones until some time in the 2030s, so a lot could change in that time.

To get back to the real point however, none of the above is relevant to the UK because the time lines simply don't overlap. The UK wants planes which can be delivered right now while these other projects (aside from the Swordfish) are all looking much further out into the next decade or the one beyond.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if SAAB was swallowed up by Airbus or at least get a substantial share in it and combined with Bombardier to form a much larger group to go against Boeing or LM.
 

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