Nukes for Israel

Discussion in 'Syria, Mali, Libya, Middle East & North Africa' started by LeoRoverman, Jun 7, 2012.

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  1. Just caught sight of this whilst browing this is my second thread and I am not too ofay with all this cut/paste but can get by. If the link doesnt work just get onto spiegle online english. Fairly sure something is in the offing as they say. Comments?

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/israel-deploys-nuclear-weapons-on-german-built-submarines-a-836784.html
     
  2. Doubt if it's very significant, given that Israel is too small to survive a decent nuclear attack it's a natural extension to their deterrent. Realistically there's nobody to deter at the moment but that might not be the case in five years time.
     
  3. Surprised that nobody's made the connection between 'unrestricted Jew-Boat warfare..'

    Anyway, the issue is old news. The Israelis have had German built subs for decades, and nukes. What's much more important is if they can put the two together. They're only little diesel boats, not Trident, so you are basically looking at cruise missile capability.

    They've got air launched versions, and are suspected of having these for subs as well-
    Popeye (missile) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
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  4. its more the timing of the news i'm interested in and as you say hector, the ability to link the two. We know that Israel has come out of the closet in relation to nuclear capability but I don't believe that our stalwarts the BBC has made any mention-or if they have you've got to dig for it. The question uppermost has got to be -Now What?
     
  5. I suspect the question might be better put as "Why now?" They've had the capability for years, this is probably just a pointed reminder to the Iranians that they still do.
     
  6. Israeli subs transiting the Suez might be considered a tad provocative in the immediate future
     
  7. Might have something to do with the news of 1.5 billion barrels of oil having been found with the promise of more to come as well as major gas reserves. The Arab nations are shitting themselves because Israel could significantly lower the price of oil by flooding the market or bececome one of the major players and remove the strangle hold OPEC and the Arab League have over the westen world.
     
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  8. Negligent-Discharge

    Negligent-Discharge LE Book Reviewer

    TSO surfaced from her Friday daze/days of Merlot when I read her 2/51's post. "It'll all boil down to water (no pun intended) as The Economist reported and, mark my words, water will be a catalyst for sabre rattling and even gunboat diplomacy or worse within the next 20 years. De-salination won't help the house of Sau'ud or the farmers of the Be'kah area." It's like watching the old Priest off "Father Ted" spouting sensibly and TSO has a valid point.

    If Israel does have submarines with nuclear Cruise capabilities that leaves them open as they can only be launched from the surface - or am I wrong? I doubt very much that Israel would be able/capable/allowed to take a Boomer from the US Navy.

    She still amazes me...
     
  9. Thats what the analyists are saying. :)

    Unless some clever directional drilling by the arabs takes place and they nick the oil from right under the Israelis rather large noses.
     
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  10. As a state Israel is an entirely self interested actor and they make no bones about it, what this will mean is they'll be even less liable to obey DC. As it is they are and have every reason to be highhanded, Israel's popularity with US voters is at all time high, up in the 70s with Republicans and bipartisan support in Congress is even higher so generous US support is assured.

    Having worked with Israeli commerce I'd expect them to play hardball with all potential customers. It looks like the US is headed towards energy independence, so it'll be more a matter of Exxon Mobil interests and those are practically free floating. The Israelis will align with OPEC if it suits them, the former is mostly the Kingships and in practice those rulers have quietly been chums with Israel since the 90s and now are far more worried about Iran and worse any sign of democracy breaking out. I'd actually predict an even closer working relationship here and that is probably no bad thing for the Kingships and Israel.

    What we might see is a good deal more sympathy to Israel extracted from europe, nothing like a big hydro-carbon find to start those energy hungry folk with their state linked oil majors groveling. Just recall the case with Libya and most notably the UK's abject cow tow over al-Megrahi. An eager actor in that is well in place to profit, dear old Mr Tony Blair, one of the few world leaders who ever really understood and adored the machinations of the oil majors. He'll be I'm sure heavily focused on climbing on the Israeli find's gravy train, what else are Middle East Peace Envoy's for after all?
     
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  11. Yeah that's what worries me sometimes complacency can backfire. My thoughts are that given the attempt to settle the syrian problem including Iran in the settlement now might not be the right time for Israel to pretend she's a superpower
     
  12. Alib I don't say that there is no merit in the post, it's just that oil is a medium/long term extraction issue and what you say may be the case in the long term- the issue for me is that given Iran's sabre rattling around the shatt and America's response to it this publicity sounds like a response to a short term issue. I just hope the Izzies have been wrong footed by the rapid turn of events this week and keep the bloody things moored. I cant thing of anything that would enrage the Iranians more than the knowledge of an Izzie UBoat in their waters- far far worse that the RN disaster a few years ago. You are however quite correct that friendship and oil go hand in hand.
     
  13. Israel has sent submarines down the Suez before and the Iranians have been slightly pissed off.

    The Iranians have always known that if suitable provocation was given Israel might nuke them, Tel Aviv's jittery democratic politics make it prone to rash acts in moments of domestic crisis. They know the only way the IAF alone can substantially hurt the Iranian nuclear program is to use its own nukes so the threat of a pre-emptive strike is implicit in Bibi's constant drum beating. They may over estimate Bibi's rationality and like me assume to confidently that it's currently more of a ruse to discomfit and distract Barry than serious intent.

    The US has basically threatened to apply the might of the USAF to destroy Iran's program if it proceeds to completion which probably extends to a wide and deep attack of Iranian millitary industrial infrastructure, they've also promised repeatedly to wipe the country from the pages of history if it attempts to nukes Israel.

    The Ayatollahs are a sober lot of able brinks men, who played WMD chicken with Saddam for decades. At the moment they are somewhat distracted by internal squabbles and the weakness of their Syrian ally. If panicked they could have initiated a nuclear crash program by now and have a crude weapon but show no sign of it. They appear to be edging up to being within reach of a deterrent capability like Japan. I doubt they place much significance on a few U-boats, it's not a game changer.

    If I was Qom I'd be far more worried by the Saudis hints that they might go nuclear. They already have missiles that'll take a Pindi warhead and it's rumored those are already purchased and just have to be shipped. The Saudis have become very bellicose since the fall of Saddam, paranoid about the spread of Shia belief, furious about the recent fall of their Egyptian ally, impatient with the US failure to destroy Iran and unlike the Israelis there are men amongst the Princes that are fanatical, ruthless and entirely capable of pre-emptive genocide.
     
  14. Well, that's it then we can expect crash hats at any time. Funnily enough I have been thinking that Bush's little adventure was not very well thought out, by fragmenting Iraq- even if we didn't like Saddams exploits- well enough said. If Saudis go nuclear then we can kiss the anti proliferation treaties goodbye- It's starting to look as if the US and Russia don't have the clout we're all led to believe. A very interesting post Alib.
     
  15. Definately nukes for Israel. I sincerely hope they are delivered to Tel Aviv via the statosphere, at a very high rate of speed.
     
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