North & South Korea tension

#2
Just read this on the Telegraph. I hate being thread-scooped on Arrse!

But this puts those 50,000 troops sitting on the North Korean side of the fence in perspective...a build up which has taken them just under 10 years.

CHT-02D torpedo included in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes
I bet sales will go up now that the world can see how well it works! :D





"Our army and people will promptly react to any 'punishment' and 'retaliation' and to any 'sanctions' infringing upon our state interests with various forms of tough measures including an all-out war"
North Korean Statement
 
#3
Do you remember the cruise missile crisis? The Soviets threatened dire consequenses if the American planes carrying cruise missiles to the UK even took off. Then (to our shame) a UK civil servant told the world what the take-off time would be. They took off on time, and there was no war. So if the North Koreans are typical communists, I think we can cheerfully ignore them. Sanctions have never bothered them in the past, so why would they bother now?
 
#4
The problem is how long can the north actually maintain a war for? Food and fuel especially will be in limited supply, and their air force will most likely be decimated in a few days given their reported training levels.
Would China support them this time? Would their be a high level coup quite early on by senior officials who actually know the state of the country and the risks it faces by committing to war. Mind you I know there is a big fear in the south of not just war, but of a successful war causing millions or norks to move south looking for a handout, and I've no doubt the the south Koreans have studied the effects of the reunification of the 2 Germanys and the lessons which should be learnt from that debacle.
Lots of questions, very few definate answers.
 
#5
Define: Black Swan

What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.
Basically, it's something that everyone thinks will never happen and then when it does happen, everyone nods and goes "oh yeh, well it was obvious!"
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#6
It could get messy. The original idea was for further sanctions and a ban on ordering goods from the North. However, old wonwey-boy has now said that will be asking for all out war.

TBH, I think that's what he wants, or then again, maybe China has told him "huff and puff all you like sunshine, but if you go to war, you're on your own for supplies and the like".
 
#7
I suspect China would like NK to stay as an independant state as would the south. Greater freedoms and trade perhaps, but a political unification would be upsetting for far too many parties.
NK would take years to even bring up to speed with the modern world, and their citizens would require a degree of un-brainwashing just as great (but less forceful) as the process that made them as they are in the first place.
 
#8
REMFQuestions said:
Just read this on the Telegraph. I hate being thread-scooped on Arrse!

But this puts those 50,000 troops sitting on the North Korean side of the fence in perspective...a build up which has taken them just under 10 years.

CHT-02D torpedo included in introductory brochures provided to foreign countries by North Korea for export purposes
I bet sales will go up now that the world can see how well it works! :D






"Our army and people will promptly react to any 'punishment' and 'retaliation' and to any 'sanctions' infringing upon our state interests with various forms of tough measures including an all-out war"
North Korean Statement
The Germans latest torpedo is much better.
 
#12
Heres a thought to make you all happy, we're part of the armistice commission and have representatives in the ROK for that reason (thats why the DA is a 1*). If it kicks off again, we're likely to be called on to go, and we'd be obliged to do so.
 
#13
SK does'nt want to sort out NK
china does'nt want to share a land border with US forces
its a mess
 

Andy_S

LE
Book Reviewer
#14
I was at the torpedo press conf this AM, and our Brig was there in full fig - along with a lot of pretty hard looking ROK generals.

But as for the Norks threatening war - please. When you are discussing this regime, best to seperate rhetoric from reality.

My understanding is that the Norks are very good at assymetric pinpricks, but if it came to all out war, they are finished, kaput.
 
#15
Andy_S said:
I was at the torpedo press conf this AM, and our Brig was there in full fig - along with a lot of pretty hard looking ROK generals.

But as for the Norks threatening war - please. When you are discussing this regime, best to seperate rhetoric from reality.

My understanding is that the Norks are very good at assymetric pinpricks, but if it came to all out war, they are finished, kaput.
North Korea...having the fourth largest standing army in the world, at nearly 1.2 million armed personnel, with about 20% of men ages 17–54 in the regular armed forces. It also has the Worker-Peasant Red Guard, a reserve force comprising 3.5m+ (IISS), 3.8m (USMC) or 4.7m (State Department) militia. It operates an enormous network of military facilities scattered around the country, a large weapons production basis, and a dense air defense system.

The army places great emphasis on special operations and has the largest special operations forces in the world — tailored to meet the distinct requirements of mountainous Korean terrain. Between 1984 and 1992, the army added about 1,000 tanks, over 2,500 APC/IFV, and about 6,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers. In 1992 North Korea had about twice the advantage in numbers of tanks and artillery, and a 1.5-to-1 advantage in personnel over its potential adversaries
Source: Wikipedia (of course!) but I am sure there is more than an element of truth....

But you are right. They probably couldn't even muster a Battalion. :D 8O
 
#16
Alsacien said:
Drlligaf said:
The Germans latest torpedo is much better.
You mean the unterwasserleiserhochgeschwindigkeitsturbopimmel?
I have a feeling that that is not the official title. All I know is that it creates a large gas bubble underneath the target and as ships don't float on air very well they break up and sink.

AL1. Turbopimmel? You mean it f**ks ships? :D
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#17
Drlligaf said:
Alsacien said:
Drlligaf said:
The Germans latest torpedo is much better.
You mean the unterwasserleiserhochgeschwindigkeitsturbopimmel?
I have a feeling that that is not the official title. All I know is that it creates a large gas bubble underneath the target and as ships don't float on air very well they break up and sink.
..as discovered by Hans when he farted in the Kiel schwimbad?

Otherwise known as super cavition:
http://www.weltbildung.com/superkavitation.htm
 
#19
I think it's all a secret world domination plan by some evil genuis, and can only be saved by a plucky british secret agent.

Or copious amounts of instant sunshine on Pyongyang.
 

Andy_S

LE
Book Reviewer
#20
SNIP
But you are right. They probably couldn't even muster a Battalion.
SNIP

Very kind of you to post the Wiki stats.

Purely FYI:
War is not all about numbers - though the ROK army is 600,000 strong, sans reserves, so in fact the Norks' numerical advantage is only two to one. I won't even mention the US, though their 28,500 chaps here are force mutlipliers (air force, base personnel, REMFs) plus a skeleton infantry div as speed bumps.
The Norks dont have fuel so they don't have an armoured, motorized force to speak of: No armoured blitzkrieg this time round.
Moreover, they dont have any airforce or navy to speak of (mini-subs don't stop marine landings), so once the US deploy, they are vertically and horizontally outflanked from day one
Since 1980, the general public has been of the opinion that war is all about spec ops, but in fact, large-scale war is not. Spec ops forces are not war winners. For that, you need infantry.
The Norks' most dangerous weapons are their artillery and their nuke weapons (albeit, AFAIK, they have not yet warhead-ized them). So they COULD destroy Seoul.

Unfortunately for them, raining destruction down on Seoul does not win them the war. In fact, it simply brings massive retribution raining down on their heads - certainly from the ROKs and US, possibly even from China who want a secure Northeastern flank.

Either way, if they go to big war, the Kim Jong-il regime is out of business....finished, kaput.
 

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