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North Korea

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by DesktopCommando, Mar 26, 2013.

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  1. My reading is that they feel he's the second worst option, the worst being the collapse of the DPRK which is almost certain if a disorderly or forced transition of power occurs.

    They've been discussing internally the 'Finlandisation' of Korea for some time and most of the big names in the Foreign Ministry seem to favour a three step process: the removal of the US from the Korean peninsula; a permanent cessation of hostilities; and a long transition process of restructuring and normalising the North.
     
  2. Restructuring and normalising according to Chinese ideas?
     
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  3. Which, in terms of relations between states, are pretty much as things are currently supposed to work.
     
  4. So nothing outrageous like democracy or freedom then. Or food.
     

  5. Interesting theory.
    ;);)
     
  6. Those are matters of sovereignty.

    According to us, anyway.
     
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  7. Nemesis44UK

    Nemesis44UK LE Book Reviewer

    That makes sense, if NK is strangulated by lack of goods, it may feel backed into a corner.

    However, current sanctions appear ineffectual in forcing him to modify his behaviour.
     
  8. Nemesis44UK

    Nemesis44UK LE Book Reviewer

    No one said that they did. However, I suspect that the PRC needs to do more than its being seen to do right now if it wants to avoid a nuclear catastrophe on its back door. If you're asking me to place my faith and maybe fifty million lives in the hands of Donald Trump and/or Fatboy Dim, that's a pretty tough ask.
     
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  9. You seem to be looking at things from one perspective, that of the US. China keeps good relations and does business with the US but are not ruled by the US nor will they ever be. They keep NK supplied with basic needs such as fuel coal food etc. They need to keep NK as a buffer zone, and do not want US boots on their doorstep.

    I doubt China is happy with fat boys behaviour but their plan the replace him was killed off when he killed his half brother. They are not like the west, it is all done in a two faced way, he will smile to your face but stab you in the back, the face thing is very important.

    The trade with US is very important but so is the buffer zone. This puts Beijing in a difficult situation and is not helped by Russia and it's stance with the US on this subject.
     
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  10. They've had the longest and most successful dealings with the DPRK of any of the participants. At the same time, the RoK have most to lose from ******* this one up. Both of them prefer the softly-softly approach, so my question would be why not let them run with it?
     
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  11. Seeing as the desired modification is intended to remove his ability to produce and deploy the only thing that stands any chance of keeping him from getting "regime changed" and executed, he doesn't exactly have a lot of incentive to go along with that plan now, does he?
     
  12. Also if this all finishes in endex for DPRK, RoK will ahve to pick up the tab to sort out the mess they will inherit, they saw the cost to FRG when GDR went t--s up! Korean version will be 1,000 times worse. Suspect RoK prefers the status quo but is that sustainable?
     
  13. Answered previously. A $Tn or so:
    https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/korea-opportunities
    Benefits mentioned in the article include rare minerals, a younger population etc.
     
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  14. Anyone want to hazard a guess what happens if the Naughty Koreans fire off another test missile, and the US shoot it down? Or is it so unknowable it's a case of roll a dice to get your random results?
     
  15. Well me being the ever pessimist, I can only see military action ahead.