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North Korea

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by DesktopCommando, Mar 26, 2013.

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  1. In terms of performance, how quickly could we expect Chinese forces to advance against North Korea if they resist? Is Vietnam in 1978 no longer a useful yardstick?
     
  2. It's Wiki but .....they have three airborne Divisions, just not the airlift capability, so one Division fairly rapidly: PLAAF Airborne Corps - Wikipedia
    Obviously, this assumes air superiority as the DPRKs airforce would be destroyed/diminished by US and RoK assets in the opening hours, along with the majority of GBAD, if we go by the pretty basic videos posted earlier. Also assuming they would be escorted etc.

    72 hours(?) or so to get a Division to the N/S Korea border which could be used as a 'peacekeeping' or 'line in the sand' Division exploiting the 'protection of DPRK' angle and securing nuke and missile sites from US/RoK SOF. Tmk, they're not deployed anywhere near N Korea at the moment, but that's not to say their 'notice to move' hasn't reduced.

    I suppose there's nothing stopping a US/Coalition airlift of PLA troops/equipment to forward mount to the DMZ and population centres but that would involve considerable trust, MoUs and of course agreement to do so. Probably unlikely but a consideration.

    Or do you mean a 'fighting' advance? In which case, what scenario would you envisage PLA troops attacking DPRK forces?

    E2A: Deliberate preferred COA
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2017
  3. Yes to your last, I'm positing a situation where DPRK forces are ordered to fight on two fronts. I'm not looking yet at whether it's likely. This complicates the picture, but do we have any clear idea of the PLA's cabability of advancing quickly against what might be in their way if they are not welcomed as protectors? In '78 the Vietnamese had a policy of avoiding decisive actions unless certain red lines were crossed.
     
  4. It wasn't by the mid 80s and they've come leaps and bounds since. It's likely they'd have air superiority from the off and air supremacy fairly quickly. Their land forces are better trained and equipped with a larger proportion of volunteer units than in the 70s and they've been improving the technical capabilities since the mid 90s.

    They won't get anyone shouting, "Wolverines!" any time soon but in their own back yard they'll give anyone a headache - which is what they've been aiming to do in their reforms.
     
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  5. Answered by @smartascarrots TBH, I'd think more of a scenario why first, then the 'what if's' :)
     
  6. The Chinese have been spending their money on upgrading their technology and training. Their army, air force, and navy are smaller now, but apparently much better.

    The problem with speculating that the Chinese might ally themselves with the US to invade North Korea is that the US army moving further north is probably the last thing the Chinese would want to see.

    If Beijing could negotiate the US out of South Korea, then a more likely scenario would be for Kim Fatty the Third to suffer sudden health problems, and to be replaced with someone more pliable. Chinese forces could, if necessary, temporarily enter North Korea under their treaty of friendship to assist the legitimate government of North Korea in restoring order. South Korea could then assimilate the North gradually over many years instead of all at once.

    A big "shock and awe" war led by the US though? I think that China would welcome that about as much as the US would welcome a Chinese invasion of Mexico.
     
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  7. I thought all the guns were pointing south? If so could China just walk in first. Before an American/ SK Strike ?

    Win Win for all.
     
  8. Do you think that the Chinese would actually STOP at the NK/SK border?
     
  9. On the scenario I gave yes. I've not seen any will of the Chinese govt to 'do a Crimea' recently. They have their territorial claims in Korea but tmk they're only N Korea including an old volcano
     
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  10. The last time they went into Korea, their intent was solely to check the UN's advance. They broke contact and disappeared as soon as they achieved it.

    If the old megalomaniac MacArthur had taken the hint, the war could very well have fizzled out there.
     
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  11. Apparently fatty is bumping his gums because of the Yankee nuclear sub that's rocked up in Busan.