North Korea threatens war over sunk ship (will it kick off)

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by thefootman, May 20, 2010.

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  1. The short answer is, no.
     
  2. A good enough reason to go to war hey? Atleast if your South Korea surely. Thus roping the yanks and possibly us in.

    Take yourself back 7 years. The government tells us Mr Hussein can launch WMD'd in 45minutes. A good enough reason to go to war hey?

    The public would and should be sceptical of any "Evidence" presented to us now that may lead to hostilities with another nation. Especially when we consider Iraq was invaded then occupied with significant loss of life until our Politicians got fed up of the bad press and sacked it, sorry I mean won.
     
  3. I don't think anyone has any real interest in it kicking off.

    The ROK knows there are a LOT of Northern weapons pointing straight at Seoul and in range of this incredibly populous area that they can do the square root of f-all about really - it would get incredibly messy incredibly quick. That's without the risk of the North using what appears to be a nascent or emerging nuclear capability for their defence. They also know that if they did win any war, they would have to do spunk untold amounts of cash into the North to bring it into line with the standards in the South after decades of chronic underinvestment, much like happened to help out East Germany after German reunification, but far more expensive. Support in South Korea for war is therefore low. Best case scenario for them is to carry on as normal - no destructive and bloody war, no investment/rehabilitation of the North required.

    The DPRK knows that any war or conflict is very likely to end with their regime being toppled from power, as a result of pressure from either external or internal sources. And since an authoritarian regime such as that thrives on being in total control, losing their #1 spot in North Korea to the Southerners or to a revolution/counterrevolution pissed off at them and using a moment of vulnerability is really not on their to do list. Although they seem to be ruled by an unstable regime the thought that they could win against South Korea (with their American backers) is not really a viable one - unless they had China on side like last time, but frankly China seems to have been gradually mellowing and distancing itself from NK extremism for a while, and has an interest in keeping the Koreas split and divided instead of seeing them potentially united and somewhat of a rival - so I can't see that vital Chinese support being forthcoming. The DPRK also know that their nuclear capability or the uncertainty surrounding it can act as something of a deterrent to interventionism. So for them, I think the best course of action would also be business as normal - that way the regime gets to continue to be top cat in North Korea. Actual support for going to war (despite sabre rattling and the odd bit of belligerency for domestic consumption) would actually be low, because this entails risk and uncertainty.

    Just what the North Koreans are doing sinking a South Korean warship I do not know. Looking at the big picture no country should really have an interest in going up against one another; so it makes no sense, unless it was thought necessary to act as some sort of deterrent by appearing to be an unrational actor (i.e. the old 'how do you win a game of chicken? neck a bottle of whiskey before getting behind the wheel of your car'). Or maybe it was a CO (or god forbid even the regime) that finally begun to believe their own propaganda too much :/
     
  4. They didnt win, Democracy Kicked in

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlIm-riMN6Q&feature=related
     
  5. One might be tempted to think the North's plan is to raise the tempo until Mr Moneybags, the current Whitehouse resident steps in to cool the situation with the promise of another large wodge of cash. It worked several times with the North nuke program so why not give it a try?

    Just an idea, I'll go back to digging the shelter now.
     
  6. What can N.Korea do with there Nuclear Landmines ?
    Is, Has anyone ever suggested they have made the jump to miniaturizing their primate Bomb.
    An armored Hyundai Truck behind some T34/54/55/62s driven south ?
    Seems they used a simple old fashioned Torpedo and not the 'Supersonic' Torps beloved by some members of this board.

    john
     
  7. As part of psychological warfare operations, South Korea is placing loudspeakers at the border and is also using radio to broadcast messages into the North.

    "We do not hope for war but, if South Korea, with the US and Japan on its back, tries to attack us, Kim Jong-Il has ordered us to finish the task of unification left undone during the... (Korean) war," Yonhap quoted a May 20 broadcast as saying

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100525/twl-north-korean-troops-prepare-for-comb-3fd0ae9.html
     
  8. Its the whole Appeasement and Germany thing again.

    North Korea will not give in, and will constantly demand things from South Korea and the US.

    When they get told no, they "stamp their feet" to make sure they are not forgotten.

    Im not sure what they hoped to gain by sinking a South Korean corvette, but the South will surely not brush this off like every other demand.
     
  9. North Korea are a strange bunch, sinking a ship then threatening to declare war. :)
     
  10. What is the likely scenario if North Korea did declare war? Would it be the odd missile strike? Or full on North on South action until America or China got bored of just standing by watching?
     
  11. Yes, we're all doomed.

    Especially when:

    Iran decides it's time to pacify Iraq and finish off the Holocaust
    China 're-unites' Taiwan
    Russia restablishes a presence in the Baltic and Caucasus
    Argentina invades the Falklands
    Pakistan and India decide to settle it once and for all.
     
  12. Well then if they are all busy with that then, who is going to grab Greenland and all its potential oil and natural resources? and just think of carbon footprint as well.
     
  13. More like a S Korean ship crossing the line and N Korea firing another tinfish. Or a false missile launch or just a pissed of tom letting loose.

    Whoever does then the others will fire back and itll take a while for it to calm dowm. After the shock of a few 100 shells landing itll be OK .I hope.
     
  14. What if it's a more protracted thing than all out war?