North Korea, is China teasing Japan?

ugly

LE
Moderator
#1
It is no secret that the Chinese hold a grudge against the Japanese. The Chinese have a thing about history, the last 400 years being in a Chinese politicians mind as relevant as this morning in a western politicians mind.
Given that and the serious going over that the Chinese underwent at the hands of the Japanese in the last century is there any merit in the claim that the Chinese are using the North Koreans to keep defence spending high in that region and force the Japanese/South Korean/US economies to suffer from increased defence spending?
 
#3
The Chinese play a long game.
The last 20 years has seen them expand to probably the largest producer of manufactured goods.
They are shortly going to try to turn economic domination into world domination.
I hope I won't be around to see it.
 
#4
That was a short thread then......
 
#6
This is the Chinese century as much as the last one belonged to the USA.

Hopefully they'll just try to dominate with soft power rather than hard.

A great moment for the UK to decide to deliberately weaken itself due to a bout of exceptionalism
 
#9
It is no secret that the Chinese hold a grudge against the Japanese. The Chinese have a thing about history, the last 400 years being in a Chinese politicians mind as relevant as this morning in a western politicians mind.
Given that and the serious going over that the Chinese underwent at the hands of the Japanese in the last century is there any merit in the claim that the Chinese are using the North Koreans to keep defence spending high in that region and force the Japanese/South Korean/US economies to suffer from increased defence spending?
I would have thought the bigger aim would be to get the US and allies to back down on their military presence in the region, allowing China more "freedom" to expand in the region as I can't see them managing to put that much of a dent in these economies, especially the US, with their spending as it is.

I mean, in the longer term, they would be spending the same anyway thanks to the Chinese expansion and Moscow's willy waving so there wouldn't be much of a difference there, but getting more influence in the region has to be something they would want.
 
#10
I there is to be war I don't think Japan directly is the target, they want the South China sea for themselves for oil exploration hence all the man made islands they're building there to be used as forward bases to extend there military presence there and effectively own it and exploit it

But one big economic crash and I can't see China staying the same, and they don't have the complete control over their citizens that they want even now. We might see some sort of democracy in China eventually, they have a huge mobile population, that will be quick to unrest if their economy ever unravels

Take the whole great firewall of China, it has limited success, people get round it with VPNs and some of those must be aware of the world outside China, they can see they don't have to be controlled that way
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#11
Over time the number of Chinese who have experienced the free society outside must surely grow. The result depends on how comfortable those people continue to be, i.e. whether at home they are able to make money in peace.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#12
I would have thought the bigger aim would be to get the US and allies to back down on their military presence in the region, allowing China more "freedom" to expand in the region as I can't see them managing to put that much of a dent in these economies, especially the US, with their spending as it is.

I mean, in the longer term, they would be spending the same anyway thanks to the Chinese expansion and Moscow's willy waving so there wouldn't be much of a difference there, but getting more influence in the region has to be something they would want.
Aren't the Chinese the biggest investors in the US economy? It wouldn't take much to make the US economy bomb spectacularly.
 
#13
Aren't the Chinese the biggest investors in the US economy? It wouldn't take much to make the US economy bomb spectacularly.
And that would be a classic case of "cutting off your nose, etc".

Why kill off a good source of income?
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#14
And that would be a classic case of "cutting off your nose, etc".

Why kill off a good source of income?
The Chinese think long term is hundreds of years not a handful. A bit of pain now would benefit them greatly in the longer game.
 
#15
The Chinese think long term is hundreds of years not a handful. A bit of pain now would benefit them greatly in the longer game.
Not as much as getting their paws deeper into what can be argued to be one of the biggest markets in the world.


If you can't beat 'em, take 'em over, and if you do it slowly and they won't even realise how much you've done that until it's too late.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#16
Not as much as getting their paws deeper into what can be argued to be one of the biggest markets in the world.


If you can't beat 'em, take 'em over, and if you do it slowly and they won't even realise how much you've done that until it's too late.
I'm convinced the long game aim rules over everything else, tank the us economy and buy up the remains for pennies
 
#17
I'm convinced the long game aim rules over everything else, tank the us economy and buy up the remains for pennies
Again, no sense in that as tanking the US economy hurts them badly as well as people won't be buying all sorts of things from them. And that's before thinking of how tanking the US economy would have the effect of tanking a hell of a lot of other economies, increasing that pain, as well as how there would be a hell of a lot more pain thanks to the Chinese holding so much USGov debt.

10 years ago, yeah, I'd be with you on tanking the US economy but nowadays? Naah, too much to lose.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#18
Again I feel its a weapon they have, they may not use it but surely the threat would be sufficient and who wants to go down in history as the potus that called the wrong bluff?
 
#19
Again I feel its a weapon they have, they may not use it but surely the threat would be sufficient and who wants to go down in history as the potus that called the wrong bluff?
And the flip side is who would want to be the Chinese Pres who brought economic disaster upon his own country since that's a hell of a lot of "dollar debt" that would be worth as much as a Zimbabwe Dollar, never mind a distinct lack of "products" being bought..

A tricky one to call, when you think about it.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#20
And the flip side is who would want to be the Chinese Pres who brought economic disaster upon his own country since that's a hell of a lot of "dollar debt" that would be worth as much as a Zimbabwe Dollar, never mind a distinct lack of "products" being bought..

A tricky one to call, when you think about it.
Indeed, even supposing that the Chinese want to destroy the USA would it be worth the risk? If the yanks fall I imagine the rest of us would follow pretty quickly so the Chinese might not be in such a bad place if the us economy fails on its own and more slowly albeit it could be said to have failed already by some previous measurements but then so could all
 

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