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North and South Korea squaring up?

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#1
The DPRK is threatening to confiscate hundreds of millions of Dollars worth of property owned by South Korean Companies in a spat over who knows what.

Fortunately this presents no threat to Britain or our interests. We know that because in Brown's green paper on Defence he said that there were no threats to British interests. This is also very fortunate because if it did present us with a threat there is probably the square route of not-a-lot that we could do about it.

Also fortunate because quite frankly I don't particularly want to go to war with the DPRK. There is a possibility that they may collapse like a pack of cards but there is also the possibility that they might actually be extremely tenacious and it could turn out to be a very nasty war indeed.

It is possible to wonder if the kindest thing might not be to nuke them from the outset.
 
#2
The Republic of Korea`s(South) government are playing down the likely fact that their navy ship lost last month was the result of North Korean action.

As you say,things could hot up suddenly with global implications.
 

Andy_S

LE
Book Reviewer
#7
I spoke to someone pretty senior in USFK on the night this occured, and he said nobody there was really concerned. That view has changed since they raised the stern: It was def an external explosion.

I had dinner with a senior S Korean official tonight, and he was telling self and fellow hacks that after the 1968 commando attack on the S Korean presidential manse, then President Park Chung-hee - a bit of a hard man; His early military training was in the Imperial Jap Army - ordered the ROK Air Force to bomb the Nork special forces base - but the Americans restrained them (After the spectacular failure of the commando attack, of course, the Norks seized the USS Pueblo, so the Americans were in a bid of a bind, with their crew in enemy hands.)

So I am getting the sense that the government here is not going to take this lying down.

There again, it may take a while to find the smoking gun. The official mentioned above cited the issue of a British ship sunk by a mine in either the 40s or 50s (a case I was not familiari with) when it apparently took two years to definitely finger the culprit - Albania.
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#9
I have it on very good authority that there is no need to maintain our current defence budget as there is no proven evidence of a threat to the UK or its interests; and nor is there any likelyhood of the UK being engaged in anything other than COIN ops for the foreseeable future.

The story that North and South Korea may be squaring up is a non-story in terms of our future planning, as (unless it involves some COIN stuff, for which we plan to equip and budget) we won't be playing.

Any involvment we may in the unlikely event have will be with the grace and favour (and kind permission) of our strategic and materiel sponsors in the US of A.

You heard it here first.
 
#10
There is one aspect which hasnt been brought up yet - China.

With them funding the majority of the United States' credit binge, they pretty much have their Balls in a vice.

Having said that, the US will stand by South Korea, will China stand by North Korea?
 
#12
"will China stand by North Korea? "

Strangely China gets very sensitive if a outside enemy, The US, approaches her border.
Are we not now remembering the War of early 50's.
The Chinese warned then, The US ignored and the Poo hit the fan.
john
No way should UK be involved.
 
#13
jonwilly said:
"will China stand by North Korea? "

Strangely China gets very sensitive if a outside enemy, The US, approaches her border.
Are we not now remembering the War of early 50's.
The Chinese warned then, The US ignored and the Poo hit the fan.
john
No way should UK be involved.
Guess that means we had best be packing our bags for a far eastern jolly then? :x
 
#14
The main people to be concerned will be the South Koreans,the Japanese and the American forces stationed in North East Asia.

With the so-called Dear Leader apparently suffering from ill-health,the North Koreans will become even more unpredictable in the near future.Another famine this year in the north could be the tipping point.
 
#15
Arrse baffles me.
There seem so many Gunslingers just looking for a quick 'Get Massacred'.
The UK government has consistently failed to equip Her Majesty's Armed Forces, for the counter insurgency wars Blair committed them to.
Yet so many talk about what will turn into Full scale all out wars.
UK cannot afford it's current small scale forces and come the next election Budgets will be slashed, the Present Happy times will be gone.
john
Have a Good war Gloworm.
 
#16
Le_addeur_noir said:
The main people to be concerned will be the South Koreans,the Japanese and the American forces stationed in North East Asia.

With the so-called Dear Leader apparently suffering from ill-health,the North Koreans will become even more unpredictable in the near future.Another famine this year in the north could be the tipping point.
Surely not they almost lost last time but for China's help and thats not guaranteed now Kim may be mad but he knows how to hang on to power and is unlikely to take that risk. Its just the normal dictator symdrome "when the going gets tough blame the outside world".
 
#17
If I were China I'd offer the yanks a deal. We'll invade and effect regime change to take away the threat on your behalf and bring stability to the region . however, the terms for Korean reunification would be the removal of all US forces and the closure of their bases in the South. Once this has been completed all Chinese forces would also be withdrawn. The U'S. should also stop all sales of military equipment to Taiwan. Deal or no deal.
 
#18
Good Idea Roo.
If China wanted Taiwan it could take it and Ohbhamahahama is no George Bush, Thank Buddha.
Most of Taiwan's manufacturing is done in China for economic reasons and all Chinese are Business men above all.
john
 
#19
jonwilly said:
Good Idea Roo.
If China wanted Taiwan it could take it and Ohbhamahahama is no George Bush, Thank Buddha.
Most of Taiwan's manufacturing is done in China for economic reasons and all Chinese are Business men above all.
john
China does one hell of a lot of business with South Korea as well,so Dear Leader may well not get much help from the Chinese for any military adventure in the south.
 
#20
China won't be rushing to DPRK's help if it kicks off in a major way. They won't want a US proxy on their border but they want war in East Asia even less - key sign is, as others have mentioned, that they could take Taiwan if they wanted to. The thing is they don't want to take it militarily because that would mean they'd have to keep it militarily and that's just too damned expensive and disruptive to trade.

I'd imagine they'll have read the senior officials their tea leaves during the recent bilateral visits and suspect that's why Kim postponed his Beijing trip scheduled for earlier this month. If he'd been sure of their support, he'd have been there like a whippet.

Unless the ROKs look like overthrowing the DPRK entirely, they'll stay on the sidelines looking to calm things down as quickly as possible.
 

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