No brexit, how would it work?

skid2

LE
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And now, Home Civil Service getting offered bonuses to fight the good fight. Sign up up for brexit centres.

People getting employed in t&cs which bare little relevance to long held CS ideals
It's all going so well.
 
Published by: Fiona Cincotta, CityIndex, FXSTREET, 06 March 2019.

Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit.

Britain is now better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than a few months ago and if the abrupt departure from the EU still materializes it may end up being a disorderly event rather than a disruptive one, according to BoE governor Mark Carney. Briefing a House of Lords committee yesterday he said that authorities have taken steps to protect derivative markets, reduce financial risk and minimize trade frictions.

Sterling traders seem to be echoing that view with the pound trading above $1.31, although the currency did weaken this morning against both the dollar and the euro. This weakening process, however, has more to do with a longer term economic outlook for Britain and the current level of inflation that remains above the BoE’s target than with Brexit. Carney noted that investors had not priced in enough monetary tightening ahead and that the bank might have to send a clearer signal to the market about the future direction of interest rates.

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Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit
 
Published by: Fiona Cincotta, CityIndex, FXSTREET, 06 March 2019.

Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit.

Britain is now better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than a few months ago and if the abrupt departure from the EU still materializes it may end up being a disorderly event rather than a disruptive one, according to BoE governor Mark Carney. Briefing a House of Lords committee yesterday he said that authorities have taken steps to protect derivative markets, reduce financial risk and minimize trade frictions.

Sterling traders seem to be echoing that view with the pound trading above $1.31, although the currency did weaken this morning against both the dollar and the euro. This weakening process, however, has more to do with a longer term economic outlook for Britain and the current level of inflation that remains above the BoE’s target than with Brexit. Carney noted that investors had not priced in enough monetary tightening ahead and that the bank might have to send a clearer signal to the market about the future direction of interest rates.

View attachment 381577

Carney: Britain better prepared for no-deal Brexit
Splendid! From all upside, to won't be as disastrous as the worst case scenario.

Austerity 2.0 ought to please all the left behinds hoping for a better future outside the EU

From another source,

Damage to the economy from a no-deal Brexit would now be less than we feared, says Bank of England governor Mark Carney

The Bank of England warned in November 2018 that a no-deal Brexit would cause a loss of economic growth of between 4.75% and 7.75% in the three years afterwards, compared to the deal offered by the Prime Minister.

However, Mr Carney has revised this. He told the committee that thanks to contingency planning he expected the damage to be reduced to just 2.75% lower economic growth in the three years after Brexit in the best-case scenario.

This would equate to around £55 billion lost GDP.

In the worst case, the governor expects 4.25% lower growth compared to Theresa May's deal.
 
Published by: Allister Heath, the Telegraph, on 06 March 2019.

'A clean break with the EU is the only sustainable solution'.

If the Treasury was being honest, it would admit that EU membership has made little difference to our prosperity

Like almost everybody who voted for Brexit, I wanted to leave the EU with a trade deal. I certainly assumed that we would: it is in both sides’ interests, and EU manufacturers and farmers do especially well from the present arrangements.

I thought the Government would negotiate robustly and sensibly, following Vote Leave’s advice not to trigger Article 50 until the outlines of a deal had been agreed, all the while preparing for a hard exit. I expected the EU to realise that a refusal to play ball would mean a calamitous financial, defence and security hit.

It wasn’t to be. The abject lack of leadership provided by the Prime Minister, the Government’s staggering refusal to leverage the UK’s strengths, its bovine nastiness on the rights of EU citizens and, of course, the fact that so many on the UK side were trying to reverse Brexit, all combined to deliver the greatest failure of British statecraft since Suez.

The EU was emboldened into laying a series of traps into which we jumped enthusiastically, with what ought to have been the minor issue of Northern Ireland’s border turned into a case study in technocratic sabotage.

What now? Tory Remainers are in full swing, threatening either a delay or permanent membership of the customs union and single market – in other words, no Brexit – if MPs don’t sign up to the Prime Minister’s appalling deal. We must hope that, against all the odds, Parliament doesn’t fall for this madness.

Like most Leave voters, my position has hardened. I still don’t relish the idea of leaving without a deal, but I’m now, for the first time, reconciled to doing so. As matters stand, a so-called no-deal (in reality, we’ve already agreed lots of mini-deals) would be our least bad option. It wouldn’t be pretty, especially for one or two industries, but would probably cost just 1-2 per cent of GDP . . .

https://premium.telegraph.co.uk/new..._Edi_New_Reg_2019_03_09&utm_campaign=DM962033
 
As far as Brexit is concerned the EU seems hell-bent on cutting off its head to spite its body. This as a threat to anyone else who wants to leave. Trouble is, headless bodies don’t perform very well. Quite ready to dish out economic pain inside Europe and the UK to avoid political embarrassment over the UK leaving, the EU is simply pissing the UK off and making it more attractive to leave rather than remain.

This is causing growing panic amongst EU businesses. Panic they can ill afford when their economies are going ratshit, their politics turning extreme and elections coming. They are are belatedly realising that the standoff itself is causing damage.

A hard negotiating strategy doesn’t just put pressure on Britain to give in, but encourages Britain to look for other solutions, keep their own fish and look to other markets. And when Britons find they can buy cheaper goods from outside the EU, they might not return as customers.

Unfortunately what has so far appeared is an appeasement policy designed to lessen Europe’s crisis, buy time, partially remain, and hope the problem goes away. An unappetising fudge. The general public seems more and more ready for a clean break, lets hope the politicians can see the public mood and just leave without any EU inspired compromises.
 
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are the reserve forces still being called up in case of riots/looting & locus?
if anyone out rioting can you get me a 55" tv, will pay £150 cash, no euros!
No! Not the UK Resserve forces . . . You can not expect British troops to be used to robustly “control” any unrest amongst the UK civilian population - so maybe the following is an EU inspired contingency?! ;) .

Well they would say they are (only) coming for Exercises.

This is - of course - the day after BREXIT is (supposed) to happen!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Published by: GOV.UK, on 14 March 2019.

10,000 troops from 13 countries arrive in the UK for major "exercise".

The UK will boost its defensive capabilities by hosting a major international military exercise for two weeks from 30 March 2019.

10,000 troops from 13 countries arrive in the UK for major exercise
 
Published: 13 March 2019.

Lord Pearson cuts through the Brexit betrayal in a speech to the House of Lords.

 
No! Not the UK Resserve forces . . . You can not expect British troops to be used to robustly “control” any unrest amongst the UK civilian population - so maybe the following is an EU inspired contingency?! ;) .

Well they would say they are (only) coming for Exercises.

This is - of course - the day after BREXIT is (supposed) to happen!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Published by: GOV.UK, on 14 March 2019.

10,000 troops from 13 countries arrive in the UK for major "exercise".

The UK will boost its defensive capabilities by hosting a major international military exercise for two weeks from 30 March 2019.

10,000 troops from 13 countries arrive in the UK for major exercise
To quote further:
"Together these allies and partner nations will deploy 10,300 armed forces personnel (at Sea 6,500 personnel, Land 3,000 personnel and Air 800 personnel)[.]
After an initial briefing weekend at HMNB Clyde, the exercise splits its participants into two opposing Task Forces starting in the Scottish Exercise Areas (water and airspace generally to the West of Scotland, particularly The Minches). As the exercise progresses elements of the Task Forces will progress south to conduct an amphibious exercise off the South West Coast of Wales."
Good luck with sailing in The Minches at this time of year.
 
To quote further:
"Together these allies and partner nations will deploy 10,300 armed forces personnel (at Sea 6,500 personnel, Land 3,000 personnel and Air 800 personnel)[.]
After an initial briefing weekend at HMNB Clyde, the exercise splits its participants into two opposing Task Forces starting in the Scottish Exercise Areas (water and airspace generally to the West of Scotland, particularly The Minches). As the exercise progresses elements of the Task Forces will progress south to conduct an amphibious exercise off the South West Coast of Wales."
Good luck with sailing in The Minches at this time of year.
Meh!

"South West Coast of Wales", then up the M5.

Divert M6 to placate the NW; to the M1 to placate the NE; and, straight along the M4 to placate London/SE.

Should just about cover all eventualities for post-BREXIT (or NOT !!) unrest ;) .
 
Published by: Janice Atkinson, Rebel Media, on 14 March 2019.

Secret Documents Suggest Brexit Will Never Happen.

"Janice Atkinson of TheRebel.media reports: I’ve just seen confidential documents published by the respected think tank, the Bruges Group, set up in the wake of Margaret Thatcher's famous speech".

 
It's quite simple actually, if you crash out, it will be WTO tariff rules and having to pay EU tariffs. Simples. Won't be the end of the world, but expect to pay a bit more. And oh yes, those visa fees and additional paperwork to work or live in the EU. It's been easy for the current UK baby boomer generation till they haven't actually experienced the mountain of paperwork they have to go through.
 
Splendid! From all upside, to won't be as disastrous as the worst case scenario.

Austerity 2.0 ought to please all the left behinds hoping for a better future outside the EU

From another source,

Damage to the economy from a no-deal Brexit would now be less than we feared, says Bank of England governor Mark Carney

The Bank of England warned in November 2018 that a no-deal Brexit would cause a loss of economic growth of between 4.75% and 7.75% in the three years afterwards, compared to the deal offered by the Prime Minister.

However, Mr Carney has revised this. He told the committee that thanks to contingency planning he expected the damage to be reduced to just 2.75% lower economic growth in the three years after Brexit in the best-case scenario.

This would equate to around £55 billion lost GDP.

In the worst case, the governor expects 4.25% lower growth compared to Theresa May's deal.
Calm down dear.

the left behinds were only going to left further behind in the Eu anyway. Why do you think their mps were so astounded by their votes?

Both areas are traditionally Labour, and shadow home secretary Andy Burnham told local supporters who had voted to leave that "we hear you".

He said: "We understand what you are saying. This referendum can't mark the end of the process."
North East gives thumbs down to EU

Obviously, very easy to say when you still think you've won :)
 
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