No brexit, how would it work?

Sky News shrieking and panicking that a No Deal Brexit will effectively mean we are likely to lose the Cyprus SBAs, Gib and the Falklands.

God's teeth.
 
Posted 21 January 2019, but particularly pertinent after last night’s voting . . .

'The divide now is people who believe in democracy... and the political class who don't.'

 
One person’s “opinion”.

One industry.

One country.

Can someone - please - bring this to the attention of the Brexit team . . . .

Published by: Ashoka Mody, MARKET WATCH, on 29 January 2019.

Opinion: Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe

Germany’s near-recession in the second half of 2018 was a surprise to many. It should not have been.

World trade growth slowed starting early 2018 just when the German auto industry was dealing with a wrenching drop in domestic sales. This concurrent hit to two of Germany’s vulnerabilities — overwhelming dependence on buoyant world trade and accelerating obsolescence of its industrial structure — is pushing the economy into recession. Absent a heroic policy effort, a protracted German slowdown will curb European growth. It could fuel a further rise in nationalism, which would deliver another blow to the vision of a unified Europe.

Since the start of the millennium, the German economy’s reliance on external trade has implied an eerie dependence on the strength of the Chinese economy. As China experienced explosive growth in the early 2000s, German exporters, acclaimed for their high-quality engineering products, found a bonanza: a Chinese government investing on a historically unprecedented scale in leading-edge infrastructure, consumers with an insatiable appetite for Mercedes and BMWs, and factories ramping up with high-end machine tools. Between 2004 and 2006, heady years of world trade growth, virtually all of Germany’s increase in exports went to China. In late 2009, Chinese authorities rescued German manufacturers teetering from the blow delivered by the global financial crisis. China’s fiscal and credit stimulus on steroids, designed to energize the domestic economy, created voracious demand for German products.

Thus Germany — and Europe, carried along in its wake — powered ahead again in 2017 when Chinese policy makers, frustrated by their inability to hit absurdly high GDP growth targets, injected a new round of stimulus.

However, fearful of further inflating their property and credit bubbles, Chinese authorities pulled back on the stimulus in late 2017. World trade decelerated. German industrial output swooned. GDP contracted in the third quarter of 2018 and barely grew in the fourth quarter. Germany’s blue-chip stock-market index, the DAX DAX, -0.25% fell sharply. Although the benchmark has steadied in January, a respected German economic indicator fell to a four-year low. The direct blow of slower world trade growth combined with a weaker Germany have rapidly decelerated European growth.

Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe
 
Posted 21 January 2019, but particularly pertinent after last night’s voting . . .

'The divide now is people who believe in democracy... and the political class who don't.'

What a lot have been thinking for years. Now it's being said openly. Of course when it kicks off, it'll be the fault of the brexiteers/remainers/far left/far right/shit stirrers/uncle Tom Cobley an' all. Anybody but our sanctimonious leaders. Oh no, not us. They just don't get it.
 
One person’s “opinion”.

One industry.

One country.

Can someone - please - bring this to the attention of the Brexit team . . . .

Published by: Ashoka Mody, MARKET WATCH, on 29 January 2019.

Opinion: Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe

Germany’s near-recession in the second half of 2018 was a surprise to many. It should not have been.

World trade growth slowed starting early 2018 just when the German auto industry was dealing with a wrenching drop in domestic sales. This concurrent hit to two of Germany’s vulnerabilities — overwhelming dependence on buoyant world trade and accelerating obsolescence of its industrial structure — is pushing the economy into recession. Absent a heroic policy effort, a protracted German slowdown will curb European growth. It could fuel a further rise in nationalism, which would deliver another blow to the vision of a unified Europe.

Since the start of the millennium, the German economy’s reliance on external trade has implied an eerie dependence on the strength of the Chinese economy. As China experienced explosive growth in the early 2000s, German exporters, acclaimed for their high-quality engineering products, found a bonanza: a Chinese government investing on a historically unprecedented scale in leading-edge infrastructure, consumers with an insatiable appetite for Mercedes and BMWs, and factories ramping up with high-end machine tools. Between 2004 and 2006, heady years of world trade growth, virtually all of Germany’s increase in exports went to China. In late 2009, Chinese authorities rescued German manufacturers teetering from the blow delivered by the global financial crisis. China’s fiscal and credit stimulus on steroids, designed to energize the domestic economy, created voracious demand for German products.

Thus Germany — and Europe, carried along in its wake — powered ahead again in 2017 when Chinese policy makers, frustrated by their inability to hit absurdly high GDP growth targets, injected a new round of stimulus.

However, fearful of further inflating their property and credit bubbles, Chinese authorities pulled back on the stimulus in late 2017. World trade decelerated. German industrial output swooned. GDP contracted in the third quarter of 2018 and barely grew in the fourth quarter. Germany’s blue-chip stock-market index, the DAX DAX, -0.25% fell sharply. Although the benchmark has steadied in January, a respected German economic indicator fell to a four-year low. The direct blow of slower world trade growth combined with a weaker Germany have rapidly decelerated European growth.

Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe
I'm afraid it's too late for that. See #669 written by yourself, mine#672 and numerous others on different Brexit threads.

PMTM was howled down when she suffered the biggest defeat, 230, in HoC history. Yet on 9 June 2015 an even greater majority, 491, voted for us, the plebs people to decide our future. That was fine, until the result was announced after 23 June 2016. Despite all the money spent on the remain side, (the conservative party spent £7 million from their coffers over and above the £ 9.4 million of taxpayers cash) the doom and gloom predictions from all who could "see into the future," we voted leave.

Before, and up to 23 June 2016, there were two options on the table, remain or leave. After that date there was one left, leave. Now before any remainers start the usual howls about we didn't understand what it meant, let's recall what we were asked to vote on. Either remain, or leave the EU. In my book, you couldn't be asked a much simpler question.
The other classic is we didn't know what it would entail. Here's a simple test. Saturday is only three days away. Which one of all who've predicted doom and gloom, do you think will be able to give me the winning numbers in the lottery? No one. Because the operative word is predicted! All of the words they've used could/ should/ may are of that bent for the same simple reason, they don't know for certain.

As matey said in the video, and I have stated elsewhere on other threads too, this is now more important than Brexit. Remainers, I've never called you stupid. You thought differently to me, fair enough. I'm asking you to forget our differences and look at where we are now. This time we, the leavers won. That, according to our voting system, should have meant David Cameron going to the EU and telling them we were leaving. Because he didn't instead of getting on with it, all politicians have been farting about for their own ends. The problem which could arise for you remainers, should Brexit be overturned, is who'll support you should your vote be ignored at a later date?

See my block above. All speculation, just the same as all the "experts" with their predictions, and just as valid as there's was. I too cannot see what the future holds.
 
Published by: Paul Withers, EXPRESS, on Sunday 10 February 2019 | UPDATED on Monday 11 February 2019.

Brexit no-deal could put 100,000 JOBS AT RISK in Germany as car exports COLLAPSE.

GERMANY'S famous car-makers will suffer massive losses under a no deal Brexit and more than 100,000 jobs will be at risk, with the country’s lucrative motor sector hit significantly hard, a shock new study has revealed.

The Halle Institute for Economic Research said the manufacturing sector would be particularly vulnerable because of uncertainties around future trading relationships. Germany sold 770,000 vehicles to the UK in 2017, with 15,000 jobs reliant on this lucrative trading area. The industry has the third highest car production in the world and fourth highest total motor vehicle production.

In 2017, the German sector had an annual output of six million and a 31.5 percent share of the European Union.

The study has forecasted the Germany city Wolfsburg, home to Volkswagen, would suffer the most from a collapse in exports in the event of Britain tumbling out of the EU without an agreement in place.

Five hundred jobs - 0.4 percent of the workforce in the German city - would be under threat.

Last year, the Volkswagen Group delivered 10.83 million vehicles to customers around the world - up by around 90,000 vehicles from the year before.

In 2017, the German sector had an annual output of six million and a 31.5 percent share of the European Union.

The study has forecasted the Germany city Wolfsburg, home to Volkswagen, would suffer the most from a collapse in exports in the event of Britain tumbling out of the EU without an agreement in place.

Dingolfing-Landau in Bavaria would also be particularly vulnerable as it relies heavily on jobs provided by car manufacturer BMW.

The study also revealed Germany’s medium-sized companies, seen as pivotal to the bloc’s largest economy valued at £3.1trillion, would also be exposed to the impacts from a no-deal Brexit as these companies export a number of niche technologies.

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Brexit no-deal could put 100,000 JOBS AT RISK in Germany as car exports COLLAPSE
 
Sky News shrieking and panicking that a No Deal Brexit will effectively mean we are likely to lose the Cyprus SBAs, Gib and the Falklands.

God's teeth.
Probably NI and Scotland too
 

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