What a lot have been thinking for years. Now it's being said openly. Of course when it kicks off, it'll be the fault of the brexiteers/remainers/far left/far right/shit stirrers/uncle Tom Cobley an' all. Anybody but our sanctimonious leaders. Oh no, not us. They just don't get it.Posted 21 January 2019, but particularly pertinent after last night’s voting . . .
'The divide now is people who believe in democracy... and the political class who don't.'
I'm afraid it's too late for that. See #669 written by yourself, mine#672 and numerous others on different Brexit threads.One person’s “opinion”.
Can someone - please - bring this to the attention of the Brexit team . . . .
Published by: Ashoka Mody, MARKET WATCH, on 29 January 2019.
Opinion: Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe
Germany’s near-recession in the second half of 2018 was a surprise to many. It should not have been.
World trade growth slowed starting early 2018 just when the German auto industry was dealing with a wrenching drop in domestic sales. This concurrent hit to two of Germany’s vulnerabilities — overwhelming dependence on buoyant world trade and accelerating obsolescence of its industrial structure — is pushing the economy into recession. Absent a heroic policy effort, a protracted German slowdown will curb European growth. It could fuel a further rise in nationalism, which would deliver another blow to the vision of a unified Europe.
Since the start of the millennium, the German economy’s reliance on external trade has implied an eerie dependence on the strength of the Chinese economy. As China experienced explosive growth in the early 2000s, German exporters, acclaimed for their high-quality engineering products, found a bonanza: a Chinese government investing on a historically unprecedented scale in leading-edge infrastructure, consumers with an insatiable appetite for Mercedes and BMWs, and factories ramping up with high-end machine tools. Between 2004 and 2006, heady years of world trade growth, virtually all of Germany’s increase in exports went to China. In late 2009, Chinese authorities rescued German manufacturers teetering from the blow delivered by the global financial crisis. China’s fiscal and credit stimulus on steroids, designed to energize the domestic economy, created voracious demand for German products.
Thus Germany — and Europe, carried along in its wake — powered ahead again in 2017 when Chinese policy makers, frustrated by their inability to hit absurdly high GDP growth targets, injected a new round of stimulus.
However, fearful of further inflating their property and credit bubbles, Chinese authorities pulled back on the stimulus in late 2017. World trade decelerated. German industrial output swooned. GDP contracted in the third quarter of 2018 and barely grew in the fourth quarter. Germany’s blue-chip stock-market index, the DAX DAX, -0.25% fell sharply. Although the benchmark has steadied in January, a respected German economic indicator fell to a four-year low. The direct blow of slower world trade growth combined with a weaker Germany have rapidly decelerated European growth.
Germany is a diminished giant, and that spells trouble for Europe