No brexit, how would it work?

#21
I'm now increasingly of the view that both the UK and the EU are holed below the waterline and that those in authority will be guided by what they have the power to do rather than what they have the responsibility to do.
With the important difference....

The UK will float away and do what it will, the EU now has to convinces it’s less than enthusiastic populist voters it’s not the autocratic hegemon it’s been painted as.
Bit of a bugger when it’s been taking pops at Poland and Hungary avd threatening to financiLky punish Italy

The next round of elections in EUrope are going to be very interesting.
 
#23
Once the rule of democracy is easily discarded for the convenience of political ambition, then this sort of thing will probably no longer be exceptional:

Labour MP Jo Cox dies after being shot and stabbed

Alas, you may well be right.

Unlike the uncivil Europeans, the British don’t do political violence, we’ve always trusted the political class to do the will of the people.
We now have the toxic situation where half the electorate would see politicians as agents of a foreign entity and not acting in the British public interest.
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
#28
With the important difference....

The UK will float away and do what it will, the EU now has to convinces it’s less than enthusiastic populist voters it’s not the autocratic hegemon it’s been painted as.
Bit of a bugger when it’s been taking pops at Poland and Hungary avd threatening to financiLky punish Italy

The next round of elections in EUrope are going to be very interesting.
It won't float away at all because a large chunk of the UK electorate, not to mention a majority of the executive, the legislative and the judiciary, plus the secretariat, won't let it, whatever happens in the EU.

This isn't just about Brexit and hasn't been for a long time. The UK power elites are busy sowing constitutional dragon's teeth and they don't seem to know or care. I think that any creature seeking to argue that our democracy is a sham has had their job made easier and their snake oil made easier to peddle.

Rather scarily, in the event that Corbyn does get elected, I would anticipate Momentum using the partisanship of the Civil Service over Brexit as an excuse to muzzle it. Whatever happens, in April we will wake up in a very different Britain and I no longer have any confidence that our differences will ultimately be resolved in a civilised way.
 
#29
It won't float away at all because a large chunk of the UK electorate, not to mention a majority of the executive, the legislative and the judiciary, plus the secretariat, won't let it, whatever happens in the EU.

This isn't just about Brexit and hasn't been for a long time. The UK power elites are busy sowing constitutional dragon's teeth and they don't seem to know or care. I think that any creature seeking to argue that our democracy is a sham has had their job made easier and their snake oil made easier to peddle.

Rather scarily, in the event that Corbyn does get elected, I would anticipate Momentum using the partisanship of the Civil Service over Brexit as an excuse to muzzle it. Whatever happens, in April we will wake up in a very different Britain and I no longer have any confidence that our differences will ultimately be resolved in a civilised way.

Events dear boy, events.

They may have their cunning plans, but events on the world stage are outflanking them..

The US and China are squaring up as to who will be top dog, pick a side.

Abd the real existential crisis the EI faces.... mass migration.

Imagine you create a Cosy rich and wealthy shangrila, but forget to put up a fence to keep the wolves out.... thats the EU that is.

Untold millions from Africa and the middle east with no hope will want a bit of that wealth.
We’ve already seen the advance guard march in, wait until the tidal wave hits. We’re going to be glad of that English Channel again.
 
#30
Alas, you may well be right.

Unlike the uncivil Europeans, the British don’t do political violence, we’ve always trusted the political class to do the will of the people.
We now have the toxic situation where more than half the electorate would see politicians as agents of a foreign entity and not acting in the British public interest.
Slight amendment in bold. Democracy, or whats left... anarchy?
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
#31
Events dear boy, events.

They may have their cunning plans, but events on the world stage are outflanking them..

The US and China are squaring up as to who will be top dog, pick a side.

Abd the real existential crisis the EI faces.... mass migration.

Imagine you create a Cosy rich and wealthy shangrila, but forget to put up a fence to keep the wolves out.... thats the EU that is.

Untold millions from Africa and the middle east with no hope will want a bit of that wealth.
We’ve already seen the advance guard march in, wait until the tidal wave hits. We’re going to be glad of that English Channel again.
Except that it's not a Shangri La. It's a very divided country with its politics driven by a significant number of people who've been taught that it's OK to hate your opponent because they believe the wrong thing and are, consequently evil. Added to which, anybody speaking up for democracy is going to have the Establishment's subversion of Brexit thrown in their face.

One of the pre-requisites of an extreme government is to discredit the democratic option and, whether you're for Remain or Brexit, one has to admit that seeking to subvert a referendum result after a record turnout makes easy copy for those who prefer a more extreme option.
 
#32
Except that it's not a Shangri La. It's a very divided country with its politics driven by a significant number of people who've been taught that it's OK to hate your opponent because they believe the wrong thing and are, consequently evil. Added to which, anybody speaking up for democracy is going to have the Establishment's subversion of Brexit thrown in their face.

One of the pre-requisites of an extreme government is to discredit the democratic option and, whether you're for Remain or Brexit, one has to admit that seeking to subvert a referendum result after a record turnout makes easy copy for those who prefer a more extreme option.

No, the UK is not the Shangrila.
The EU dreams of creating this perfect state, but it’s divisive nature Is creating quite the opposite.
 
#36
Leave the EU and continue to trade under WTO terms, as explained quite well here:
A World Trade Deal: The Complete Guide - Economists for Free Trade

There will likely be some short term disruption and lower growth but after that things should improve. Three decades of watching and working through this stuff have taught me that things generally work out in the end. Human resilience, innovation and entrepreneurship usually see to that.

There will of course be other studies by economists as equally eminent as Prof Minford, that argue the opposite. Economics is called the dismal science for a reason. It isn't physics or chemistry, just inspired guesswork influenced by subsequent events.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#37
The referendum on leaving the EU is not legally nor constitutionally binding, however, as shown, it is politically toxic.
Thats not how it was sold, are you suggesting that if the vote had been to remain that Parliament could have taken us out?
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#38
Leave the EU and continue to trade under WTO terms, as explained quite well here:
A World Trade Deal: The Complete Guide - Economists for Free Trade

There will likely be some short term disruption and lower growth but after that things should improve. Three decades of watching and working through this stuff have taught me that things generally work out in the end. Human resilience, innovation and entrepreneurship usually see to that.

There will of course be other studies by economists as equally eminent as Prof Minford, that argue the opposite. Economics is called the dismal science for a reason. It isn't physics or chemistry, just inspired guesswork influenced by subsequent events.
Frankly I cant see what the problem is, we can have customs functioning in NI in a similar manner to the Norwegians (as if the paddies will play ball and turn up with the paperwork) and we can walk away without paying them a penny for future commitments.
No problem
 
#39
Frankly I cant see what the problem is, we can have customs functioning in NI in a similar manner to the Norwegians (as if the paddies will play ball and turn up with the paperwork) and we can walk away without paying them a penny for future commitments.
No problem
The problem is....

The EU cannot allow a non EU country to flourish on its doorstep...

The other EUro nations might say, Behold! The Brussels Emperor has no clothes!
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#40
I believe that the idea that we could just tear up our Article 50 letter is bogus. It is a commitment to the EU which they are entitled to hold us to. Re-entry to the EU would be involved, on the EU's terms which would include, Schengen, the Euro and Ever Closer Union and our destruction as a nation state, handing over control of our island to a Napoleonic construct of rule by a self-perpetuating group of technocrats.
 

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