Nicola Sturgeon - whither the SNP

Is Sturgeon's time as First Minister of Scotland coming to an end

  • Yes - she is dooomed

    Votes: 155 49.1%
  • No - this is just a storm in a tea cup

    Votes: 30 9.5%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 43 13.6%
  • Don't care

    Votes: 88 27.8%

  • Total voters
    316
The key is going to be what happens to "he who must be obeyed" if some of the SNP MSPs can be persuaded that if she goes so does he then a whole lot of them will vote in favour of the VONC.. Otherwise its dead in the water. Between them they just hold too much power...
Lots of ifs and buts on the go here there is no credible strong replacement for NS in or up for Election at Holyrood.
However if some SNP MSP'S begin to think she is going to cost them votes they will begin to hint at abstention it would only take 3 and she is gone.

She could brass it out and dig in but that would certainly cost some seats. NAT MSP'S in marginal seat's have the most to lose and will probably be the ones to decide her future.
 

Old and Grumpy

Old-Salt
Whereas, of course, pursuing an independence referendum and using ScotGov resources to do so, in the middle of a pandemic was not in the least irresponsible. Got it!

The election should be stopped on the basis that it can't be free and fair given the totally uncontrolled access to the media that NS and the SNP have to the media on the back of the pandemic.
 

Seadog

ADC
Scot Tories saying they are going to introduce a vote of no-confidence in the First Minister.

It will be very interesting to see if the Greens back her - which |I think they will thus allowing her to get off the hook. The Greens will exact a very heavy price for their support though.
I sense that with the SNP losing members / voters, the Greens could hoover up votes from an ever more divided SNP. I wouldn't be surprised if they put the boot in.

The Greens aren't as keen on Independence as they are Windypendence.
 
I sense that with the SNP losing members / voters, the Greens could hoover up votes from an ever more divided SNP. I wouldn't be surprised if they put the boot in.

The Greens aren't as keen on Independence as they are Windypendence.
Something that has crossed my mind also. Worst case scenario is the Greens get the majority of lost SNP votes (if indeed the SNP lose votes) and then still form a coalition with the SNP!
 
Apparently already Sturgeon supporters are saying "but.... but..... it was all Evans, and she's a civil servant, and that means she's run from Whitehall, so it's an English conspiracy"!?!?

Mental doesn’t even cover it.
They were all over it when it 1st broke citing one of the complainers husband was an Mi5 agent only for him to turn out to be a record company man who supported independance, Always as usual someone else to blame,
 

Truxx

LE
At no point did I say anything about not being bothered by it, I said it was inadmissible to the Inquiry despite being published in January by the Spectator.

The question I originally answered was could stuff be published elsewhere. Yes it can, the example being the Spectator.
And I said that the fact that it could not be considered or released by the inquiry (even though the original unredacted version was and is available for comparison) says much about which entity might be pulling the strings.
 

Seadog

ADC
I make it only 59 non Nats.
SC&U 30
SLab 23
Lib Dem 5
Reform 1

Others uncertain which way - 8
Greens 5
Ind - 3, all ex Nats who normally vote with the Nats

61 Nats incl the FM who will vote

1Presiding Officer who won't vote, I'm not sure if he has a casting vote like the Speaker in HofC but even so convention would have him vote for the FM.

If any of the Indys vote with the Nats that should see her home - given their stance in VONC up to now the Greens will probably abstain, again leaving NS home and dry.

Lots of ifs, but it's all down to the maths on the day

Derek Mackay may vote by text. Or not at all. He seems to have forgotten where Holyrood or his Zoom machine is.
 
The key is going to be what happens to "he who must be obeyed" if some of the SNP MSPs can be persuaded that if she goes so does he then a whole lot of them will vote in favour of the VONC.. Otherwise its dead in the water. Between them they just hold too much power...
I can see Sillars certainly voting against her he's calling for her to resign and open letters in the papers, Inverclyde SNPcouncillors telling her to go again. I suspect the local branch phones will be in meltdown tonight.

However I can see her having the brass neck not to resign and if she does whats to stop her coming back as FM in a new parliment if they have a majority?

Still hear theres a remake of a 90's romcom classic called sleepless in Ballieston staring Mr/Mrs Murrell.
 
For tomorrow
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