The SNP just need to win the referendum, they don't need to do well after that.
They need to win a referendum based on.
1) 60% of our trade is with the U.K. 22% with the rest of the world and 18% with the EU. We need to isolate ourselves from our main trading partner, and give full control of our second largest export market to the control of unelected officials who are our third largest export market.
2) our main commodity is oil, of which the SNP have already demonstrated is so volatile that even the SNPs incredibly optimistic oil forecast projections were found very quickly to be b0ll0cks.
3) a region of the EU with a larger population and bigger GDP than ours voted for separation as so far nobody from the EU has spoken to them. Although the EUs love of freedom is so great that it allowed a European arrest warrant to be issued to those politicians involved.
4) a key sector in the Scottish economy is that of finance. Edinburgh ranked 15th in the world of global financial centres in 2007, but now since an SNP majority in Holyrood that started in 2007, Edinburgh the went down to 75th place out of 81 financial centres, and has only come back up again after the 2014 silliness was put to bed. But never mind, that lucrative sector is reliant on the Bank of England supporting it, and last time the finance sector just moved to London overnight.
5) yhe involvement of Blair and Co in the brexit negotiations have seen how borders that needn’t be there are now there. So that frictionless trade won’t be happening. Remember 60% of our trade is the other side of that new border. 18% of our trade has to get through that border and another border again.
6) Nikki has to simultaneously defend herself and her political party against some rather unsavoury shenanigans. Whilst she’s been huge lucky with very sub standard media review, more recently enhanced by people being more interested with brexit and a global pandemic. She has to sell the idea with ever increasing scrutiny with people now beginning to Pont out such easily researchable facts as why are vaccination rates so low? Why have you failed on education/ health care/ economic issues? What did go on with you and salmond? You only have one oil refinery in Scotland that is privately owned by and English Chemical Engineer. Etc etc etc.