Neil Ferguson Governments shonky airfix modeller resigns after breaking lock up rules

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
Spot on. Boris said the words herd immunity and was challenged, so they changed tack to saving lives. The plan remained the same though. Herd immunity isn't a strategy. It's jut what happens. It's science.

We slowed down the rate of infection, therefore slowing down the amount of sick admitted to hospitals. A gradual exposure to the virus instead of all at once. Then spastics complain the hospitals aren't busy because we got it all wrong.
This is a very informative piece:

 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
Kelly was about to reveal that government policy was based on a deliberate lie.

That can't happen now, mainly because the government don't have a policy beyond, "Crikey!"
I think the word you was looking for was "Cripes".
 

Le_addeur_noir

On ROPS
On ROPs
This is false. WHO were saying there was no evidence yet it could be passed from person to person. They changed their position on Jan 14.

Taiwan never asserted in could spread from person to person. They asked WHO for information because they were concerned about the possibility, and claimed they didn't receive a response (from WHO).
Taiwan at the behest of the WHO's communist masters in Beijing was frozen out of any communication with the WHO, or any other UN body.
 

WALT

War Hero
Taiwan at the behest of the WHO's communist masters in Beijing was frozen out of any communication with the WHO, or any other UN body.
Taiwan which is in danger of not being recognised as a country by the rest of the world because the Peoples Republic of China has sand in its vagina about it's very existence and the rest of the world will happily roll over and take the PRC's side because it has more economic clout.
I'm hoping things will be reassessed by the world's conscience post pandemic.
 
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Also, the point is that we need people to be infected unless we all want to channel Ben Gunn forever more.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the calculation was how to get the population sufficiently exposed to the disease without overwhelming the NHS. Short of a vaccine, that's the only way to go.
Which, is where I think the government were at before the bonking Professor intervened with his alarmist wonky numbers.
 
This is false. WHO were saying there was no evidence yet it could be passed from person to person. They changed their position on Jan 14.

Taiwan never asserted in could spread from person to person. They asked WHO for information because they were concerned about the possibility, and claimed they didn't receive a response (from WHO).
It's a bit more subtle than just "passes from person to person". It's a matter of how effectively it does so and where it does so.

For example MERS will pass from person to person, but not enough in a community setting to be a self sustaining pandemic, at least not in its current form. MERS will pass from person to person in a serious way in a hospital setting, as was seen in the MERS outbreak in South Korea a few years ago. However it only spreads from person to person slowly in the general community. The risk therefore is mainly animal to human transmission. If the criteria was simply "does the virus transmit from person to person", then MERS met that criteria in 2012 and we should have, following the argument that some are advancing at present, sealed off Saudi Arabia from the outside world back in 2012, and yet somehow we didn't.

With COVID-19 the initial cases were clustered around the Wuhan Sea Food Market, so there was still uncertainty as to how it was getting transmitted. It's only when there started appearing to be enough cases that couldn't be explained by people getting infected in the market that they reached the conclusion that there was enough spread from person to person through multiple generations of infection to be self sustaining by that transmission method. Here's what the WHO had to say about it in their status report:
The initial source of 2019-nCoV still remains unknown.However, it is clear the growing outbreak is no longer due to ongoing exposures at the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan; as in the last one week, less than 15% of new cases reported having visited Huananmarket. There is now more evidence that 2019-nCoV spreads from human-to-human and also across generations of cases. Moreover, family clusters involving persons with no reported travel to Wuhan have been reported from Guangdong Province.There have been very few reports of hospital outbreaks or infections of health care workers, which is a prominent feature of MERS and SARS.
Keep in mind at this point there were only just over 500 diagnosed cases world wide at that point. There were however already cases known in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, and the US.


South Korea by the way started their pandemic response reaction on the 3rd of January, just two days after the WHO passed on the information about the new disease and before anyone knew what the virus was. Japan reacted on the 6th of January and scaled up their response to involve the whole of government by the 16th of January. Thailand did the same by the 20th. The US activated their system on the 7th of January. Nobody was waiting for the WHO to tell them what to do. What happened after that was a matter of sovereign decision making in each country.

I'm not going to jump to any conclusions about the UK reaction to the pandemic. The game isn't even to half time yet so it's a bit premature to make any conclusions about who has the best score, especially as some preliminary scientific studies have suggested that the form of the virus which is predominant in Europe and the US is not the same as the one spreading in the early days in the Far East. It is a good idea though to study measures being taken elsewhere to see what appears to work and what doesn't.
 

Nato123

On ROPS
On ROPs
Do I have to explain to you the difference between Republic of and People's Republic of?

Apparently I do.

yeah, explain how independent they really are from Chinese influence ... just for a laugh.

Popular Front for Judea mean anything to you?
 
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Nato123

On ROPS
On ROPs
Already answered to the point of nausea.

It can be summed up by 'not sat on my fat arse saying it was nothing to worry about then execute an embarrassing volte face as the death rate skyrocketed'.
Sky rocketed compared to countries that don't even count their death rate in the same way we do?

Yeah, that's helpful when making a league table to gloat or finger point over.
 
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It matters not a damn where we 'rank' - it's not a league table, it's dead people who didn't need to be.

If those even half those 30,000 could still have been alive next year through a slight input of getting-off-your-idle-arse-ity by HMG, then HMG are guilty of a gross dereliction of duty.
You have no evidence to support your claims. You cannot compare Taiwan with the UK; morbidity and mortality rates are substantially lower amongst Taiwan’s near entirely slim ethnic Chinese population than they are amongst Britain’s often obese population.

Next, without testing, it’s impossible to know how much of Taiwan’s population was infected but asymptomatic. Taiwan could be well past herd immunity; we don’t know.

Next, death rate hasn’t spiralled. It’s roughly aligned with recent seasonal flu epidemic and way below the Hong Kong Flu epidemic of 1968. Moreover, it peaked on April 8th, which was long before the lockdown measures taken on 23rd March would have had an effect. Many of those who died at the peak were infected long before there was any evidence to support a lockdown

Viruses kill. Get over it. The only way to protect against them is by developing herd immunity and that can only be developed by exposure of vaccine.

The reality is that, by being bounced into shutting down the economy, the government hasn’t saved lives. But there will be significant increases in death from non-COVID causes. And all because Professor Shonky put erroneous data into a flawed model. Whilst the liberal left build up hysteria.
 

Nato123

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On ROPs
You have no evidence to support your claims. You cannot compare Taiwan with the UK; morbidity and mortality rates are substantially lower amongst Taiwan’s near entirely slim ethnic Chinese population than they are amongst Britain’s often obese population.

Next, without testing, it’s impossible to know how much of Taiwan’s population was infected but asymptomatic. Taiwan could be well past herd immunity; we don’t know.

Next, death rate hasn’t spiralled. It’s roughly aligned with recent seasonal flu epidemic and way below the Hong Kong Flu epidemic of 1968. Moreover, it peaked on April 8th, which was long before the lockdown measures taken on 23rd March would have had an effect. Many of those who died at the peak were infected long before there was any evidence to support a lockdown

Viruses kill. Get over it. The only way to protect against them is by developing herd immunity and that can only be developed by exposure of vaccine.

The reality is that, by being bounced into shutting down the economy, the government hasn’t saved lives. But there will be significant increases in death from non-COVID causes. And all because Professor Shonky put erroneous data into a flawed model. Whilst the liberal left build up hysteria.

Oh no, now you've done it!

You destroyed his nonsense with logic, although logic only works on people with an open and receptive mind who can apply objectivity.

I'm still drinking heavily to cope with this statement from him re Taiwan and China .

'..... Do I have to explain to you the difference between Republic of and People's Republic of?

Apparently I do.....'
 
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Erm....
Coroners write the cause of death after an inquest. For most of the time it is a doctor. I find UK stats to be reliable and as honest as they can be.
My dad passed away 2 weeks ago, cause of death - COVID-19.

Did he have it?

Probably not, he was tested 4 days before he died in his care home and the result was negative.

Was he 88, with dementia and pining for my late mother? Yes, he just gave up on life.

What do the stats say - he died of COVID-19 because it is a convenient reason.

The only numbers that will have any meaning are the 'excess death statistics' which, as somebody noted earlier, won't be available for a few months yet.
 
My dad passed away 2 weeks ago, cause of death - COVID-19.

Did he have it?

Probably not, he was tested 4 days before he died in his care home and the result was negative.

Was he 88, with dementia and pining for my late mother? Yes, he just gave up on life.

What do the stats say - he died of COVID-19 because it is a convenient reason.

The only numbers that will have any meaning are the 'excess death statistics' which, as somebody noted earlier, won't be available for a few months yet.
That is exactly the problem.
Government ignoring this key point.
So, largely, are the MSM.
Absurd.
Thank goodness for Lord Sumption.
 

Fang_Farrier

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer

More interesting to read the comments than the article
 

aardvark64

Old-Salt
My dad passed away 2 weeks ago, cause of death - COVID-19.

Did he have it?

Probably not, he was tested 4 days before he died in his care home and the result was negative.

Was he 88, with dementia and pining for my late mother? Yes, he just gave up on life.

What do the stats say - he died of COVID-19 because it is a convenient reason.

The only numbers that will have any meaning are the 'excess death statistics' which, as somebody noted earlier, won't be available for a few months yet.
Sorry to hear of your loss. RIP.
 

Chef

LE

More interesting to read the comments than the article
I find it interesting that the majority seem to be knee jerk comments along the lines of 'CDC is controlled by Trump therefore they're making it up' The actual thoughtful replies are few and far between. A bit like ARRSE really.

Out of interest would you know if the majority of comments are by dental professionals?
 

Fang_Farrier

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
I find it interesting that the majority seem to be knee jerk comments along the lines of 'CDC is controlled by Trump therefore they're making it up' The actual thoughtful replies are few and far between. A bit like ARRSE really.

Out of interest would you know if the majority of comments are by dental professionals?
It cropped up as a link on a dental forum.

The article is on a dental site so I would think the earlier comments are dental but as it is shared more widely then the comments may be from a wider audience.
 
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