N Korean nuclear strike could cause chaos in US

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by DesktopCommando, Mar 26, 2013.

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  1. No need to do that. In another year or two the entire populations of those cities will have been killed off by urban youths with illegal unlicensed weapons.
     
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  2. Bet the u y w i u w will still be around.
     
  3. You might still be talking about Kim Jong Un there.
     
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  4. The Russians may well be regretting the help given to the fat kid.

    Even if his missiles don’ go in their direction, the riposte will certainly effect them. Either in fallout, or because they have been sucked into a war they did not initiate.

    How uncomfortable, how deliciously ironic... if only for a brief time, as wide spread conflict begins.
     
  5. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    Tricky problem: how to stop the 1914 domino effect. What is needed is that if Kim lets fly just one nuke there is, within hours, no North Korea.
     
  6. He knows that would happen, that's why he pushes things to a specific limit in the hope of the US and allies striking first as, keeping it simple, that would be more likely to bring the Chinese and Russians, as well as world opinion, in on his side.

    But he just needs to make one mistake, a "test" landing on Japan or the likes of Guam as an example, and that could change the way others think considerably.
     
  7. But how many others?
    If a test rocket lands on Guam I don't think it'll be long before significant parts of NK are dust but how many countries would have issues with a US retaliation?
     
  8. If one landed on Japan or the likes of Guam, accidentally or not, then I reckon everyone would say "on you go, Wee Phat brought it on himself".

    And that's why I say DPRK are pushing things to a defined limit, as staying within that limit pokes the dog with a stick whilst staying outside the length of the chain. If the US and others do something just because he's lobbing missiles, irrespective of it being against anything from the UN or not, then DPRK ends up being the poor kid being bullied instead of being the shit-stirring grass who gets a justified kicking.
     
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  9. Is it possible the next test will be within NK's borders to test a re-entry vehicle? it would seem to be a logical end point. With a viable ICBM and a workable Nuclear warhead, he wil have fullfilled his 'mission' if you like. To keep the party and people subjugated he has to prove himself able to brow beat the great enemies across the border.Could China also be playing the 'Great Game' , by not hindering NK too greatly they may have opened a debate in which they would seem to want a reduction of US Forces , on what to all intents is their Southern border. Which IIRC was the reason they intervened in 1950 ,when US/UN forces got too close to the Yalu river. China and Russia could easily stop their Korean 'clients' but without them ,both Nations would also lose the oportunity to harass the US.
     
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  10. seaweed

    seaweed LE Book Reviewer

    If it's immediate and total, what other countries have to say won't matter much. Putin might reflect that the US still has sufficient left to clear Moscow & St P.
     
  11. Lets just say for whatever reason tubby does land a missile on US territory, or that of an ally, and then Trump decides to waste NK with a nuke strike.

    If that did happen, and just for the sake of gauging opinion what do any of you think would happen to Trump politically?

    The extremes could include:
    Him being replaced on the basis he's a crazy fool (Mr T sprang to mind when I typed that ;) )
    Him being haled by a section of Americans as a hero who kicked ass and made America powerful again.
     
  12. Maggie T did very well out of the Falklands War
     
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  13. As said before, I can't see a nuke strike at all when a conventional strike would achieve the same, bearing in mind the targets are going to be in pretty much "fixed" positions, as the fallout, politically and otherwise, would be lessened considerably.

    USA lobs in a nuke, there would be repercussions.
     
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  14. The leverage which China or Russia have with North Korea is limited. The North Korean leadership see the machinations of the various foreign powers as an existential threat They believe that if they give up nuclear weapons, then they will be hunted down by foreign powers and killed.

    If you read back in the thread a ways, you will see where we were discussing whether Kim Un had his brother killed to forestall an attempt by the Chinese to back a coup which would replace Un with someone more pliable. Part of that process would presumably include killing Kim Un.

    I'm not sure just how given the above China is supposed to "easily" bend the North Koreans to their will now.

    Are the Chinese supposed to replace the North Korean leadership quietly? Well as noted above, they are believed to have tried that and failed. They don't have another spare Kim to try that again with, so they're short of options along those lines now. That's even assuming that anyone they have contacts with hasn't already met a firing squad and a shallow grave.

    Are they supposed to invade North Korea? If they were to do that, they would need to flatten all opposition as quickly as possible to prevent the leadership from using their WMD on China. So they would have to use a huge overwhelming army and drive south fast, not stopping until they reached the South Korean border.

    But how would the South Koreans and Americans take the sight of a massive Chinese mechanised army blasting south at full speed? Could they be sure the Chinese would stop anywhere short of the Sea of Japan? Are they going to just sit in their bases and cross their fingers? Or are we talking about starting WWIII?

    Any debate along these lines has to make credible and achievable proposals as to how it could actually be accomplished. It's not enough to say "well those Chinese chaps are pretty clever, I'm sure they'll figure something out even if we can't".
     
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  15. But no nuclear weapons were involved in the Falklands (as far as we're all concerned <nudge><wink>).

    The problem for Trump is that North Korea is quite small. A nuclear attack would spread all manner of radioactive nasties over neighbouring countries. China, Russia and South Korea would not be pleased if their population started glowing in the dark.

    In any attack, the two most pressing problems would be the vast amount of NORK artillery that's pointing south and located just over the border and the reactor that makes plutonium for the North. Nuking the artillery would likely make Seoul uninhabitable. Not nuking it would make Seoul the target for half a million artillery rounds per hour. Remember that the North has a well developed biological warfare program and all of their troops are vaccinated for smallpox on joining the army. It wont just be explosives getting chucked over the border.

    The reactor that makes Wee Phat's plutonium could not be attacked from the air without a Chernobyl style catastrophe. Ground troops and boffins would need some time to shut the reactor down, let it cool and remove the fuel before wrecking it. With submarine reactors this is done by filling the reactor with concrete, possibly laced with a neutron absorbing material.

    Unlike the Falklands, a land war in North Korea would not be a quick in and out job for an infantry division. It could take years, even if the Chinese are not involved. The death toll could be hundreds of thousands or millions if smallpox is used.

    There is an interesting assessment of a war between North Korea and the USA alone at
    Ignore the strange sock puppet at the start the information seems to be well researched. There is a similar analysis of a war between North Korea and South Korea alone.
     
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