N Korean nuclear strike could cause chaos in US

I'm sure that sly Kim has prepared another testing facility in a secret place - more spacious, with deeper and longer tunnels, better equipped and clean from contamination. (...)
The scale of construction means that it would be very difficult to hide. The North Koreans likely have a spot in mind where one could go, but not anything prepared yet.

Most likely Kim doesn't need new tests in the near future. Everything has been tested. (...)
As noted in previous posts, India and Pakistan were satisfied with half a dozen tests. North Korea has now conducted that many, and has a reasonably good idea of how reliable their bombs are. They don't need more tests at this time.

As for 'denuclearization' then it will not happen anytime soon.
There has as yet no agreement on what 'denuclearization' and what it encompasses. The North Koreans have previously said that it must cover the entire Korean Peninsula, which likely means the US would not be allowed to bring nuclear weapons into South Korea, including on American ships in Korean waters or ports under any circumstances.

The whole process may fall down after the meeting between Trump and Kim if the US insists on very narrowly focused negotiations limited to the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear and missile program, followed by the US thinking about possibly removing sanctions on North Korea, if the US happens to feel like it.

I believe that genuine success will require broad ranging negotiations led by the two Koreas with the US, China, and Russia agreeing to go along with what those two decide. Japan's agreement would be convenient, but I don't believe is strictly necessary.

According to Moon's comments as noted in a previous post, genuine success is something that would take many years of sustained effort.
 
I strongly doubt that the meeting between Trump and Kim will happen anytime soon.
Still much needed meeting with Putin is not on the schedule while both presidents have a lot of issues to discuss.
Btw, Russian Vladivistok would be an ideal choice (for both meetings).
From a geographic perspective Vladivostok would be ideal. However, that location would be politically untenable for Trump at this time due to domestic politics.
 
From a geographic perspective Vladivostok would be ideal. However, that location would be politically untenable for Trump at this time due to domestic politics.
It is abnormal situation when important issues of international politics depend on under carpet political games inside the USA. In this sense Washington is a factor of instability on the World stage.
 
It is abnormal situation when important issues of international politics depend on under carpet political games inside the USA.
They were talking about Switzerland initially after the ‘peace village’ was discounted. That’s felt to be too far for Tubby III and his planes, so they went with a nearer location which is politically neutral (or as much as can be), in the Region.
In this sense Washington is a factor of instability on the World stage.
Pots and kettles spring to mind.
 
The scale of construction means that it would be very difficult to hide. The North Koreans likely have a spot in mind where one could go, but not anything prepared yet.


As noted in previous posts, India and Pakistan were satisfied with half a dozen tests. North Korea has now conducted that many, and has a reasonably good idea of how reliable their bombs are. They don't need more tests at this time.


There has as yet no agreement on what 'denuclearization' and what it encompasses. The North Koreans have previously said that it must cover the entire Korean Peninsula, which likely means the US would not be allowed to bring nuclear weapons into South Korea, including on American ships in Korean waters or ports under any circumstances.

The whole process may fall down after the meeting between Trump and Kim if the US insists on very narrowly focused negotiations limited to the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear and missile program, followed by the US thinking about possibly removing sanctions on North Korea, if the US happens to feel like it.

I believe that genuine success will require broad ranging negotiations led by the two Koreas with the US, China, and Russia agreeing to go along with what those two decide. Japan's agreement would be convenient, but I don't believe is strictly necessary.

According to Moon's comments as noted in a previous post, genuine success is something that would take many years of sustained effort.
Digging of tunnels is a 'hobby' of N.Korean rulers. So construction works have been completed (I fancy) long ago.
It is sufficient to install testing equipment if it would be needed.
As for the agreement then it would cost less than a half penny. Washington could withdraw its signature at any moment.
We have to wait for profound changes in US politics, wait for a new generation of responsible American politicians.
 
Peace talks ignite land buying frenzy along South Korea's fortified...
The ‘promises’ made by Tubby III appear to have had an impact on property near the DMZ. South Koreans are buying land, even though they’ve only seen it in satellite images or on Google Earth:
Demand for property in small towns and sparsely populated rural areas around the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) is surging on expectations of an influx of people and investment.

Kang Sung-wook, a 37-year old dentist in the South Korean border city of Paju, has bought eight separate lots of land in and around the DMZ since mid-March.

Five were purchased without ever setting foot on them, using only Google Earth satellite photos and maps, as areas inside the DMZ cannot not be accessed by the public.
$2.8M for 49 acres of land. Much seems to have already been sold. Dentists seem to be paid a lot in RoK:
“I was out looking since North Korea-U.S. summit news was announced in March, and it looked like all the good ones were gone already,” said Kang. “I realized then that the market was on fire.”

His investment along the border now totals 3 billion won ($2.8 million) for 49 acres (20 hectares) of land.
Public access is restricted, but land can be purchased and registered within the 2km strip on the RoK side. Land in Paju (approach to the ‘Peace Village’) has more than doubled in price:
But while public access is restricted, land within the 2km (1.2 mile) wide South Korean side of the DMZ and other border areas can still be purchased and registered.

Land transactions in Paju, gateway to the United Nations truce village of Panmunjom, more than doubled in March to 4,628 from February, government data shows. That far outstripped better known markets such as trendy Gangnam, where volumes were up just 9 percent.
Gazzumping seems to be rife:
Kim Yoon-sik, a realtor with 25 years experience in Paju, says owners of the land in the DMZ include those who inherited farmland from ancestors in pre-Korean war days and some long term investors.

“With bids outnumbering offers, I often see sellers cancelling on preliminary contracts, it’s that hot,” Kim said.
Land on the Chinese border is also being bought especially after the pledge to reconnect roads and rail links:
The surge of activity along the border is not limited to South Korea or just real estate.

In the northeastern Chinese border city of Dandong, property investors are pushing up prices and even spurring buying interest inside North Korea.

At last month’s historic inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in pledged to reconnect railways and roads along the border, and transform the DMZ into a “peace zone”.
With ‘complete denuclearisation’ economic aid has been promised from both PRC and RoK. This means investment in infrastructure which then means the shares construction companies rise:
China and South Korea have also agreed that if North Korea undertakes complete denuclearisation, it should be guaranteed economic aid. That could start with railway projects connecting China and South Korea through North Korea.

Shares of South Korea’s construction and railway firms such as Hyundai Rotem and Seoam Machinery Industry Co have soared on hopes of such projects.
Similar rises in property occurred in 2007, during Tubby II’s tenure and deregulation of the land will take time:
Border property prices spiked when former President Roh Moo-hyun met with North Korea’s Kim Jong Il in 2007. Prices then plummeted as ties deteriorated when the right-wing government of Lee Myung-bak took power a year later.

“For the past seven decades, the two Koreas have taken radically different paths,” said Jhe Seong-ho, a law school professor at Seoul’s Chung Ang University. “Deregulating of the border zones won’t be a quick and smooth process even if there is an economic opening up of North Korea.”

Much of the land within the DMZ is likely to remain restricted from any development for conservation purposes, a huge risk for investors, he added.
Hopes are high in RoK though, according to the dentist above “Kim Jong Un wouldn’t go everywhere and visit China twice if he was bluffing.”
Hopes are high, however, with Kim set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore next month after his recent summit with Moon and two trips to China to meet President Xi Jinping.

“I have a firm belief that this time North Korea would pursue an open economy like Vietnam,” Kang said. “Kim Jong Un wouldn’t go everywhere and visit China twice if he was bluffing.”
Two of the six points from unanimous UNSC Resolution are currently being complied with. There’s a way to go yet: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/unscres_14102006.pdf
 
South Korea says that North Korea is making preparations to close their nuclear test site. South Korea military says North Korea making preparations to close nuclear site | CBC News
North Korea is moving ahead with plans to close its nuclear test site next week, South Korea's military said Tuesday, an assessment backed by U.S. researchers who say satellite images show the North has begun dismantling facilities at the site.
Apparently several buildings have been razed, and rails for mining equipment have been removed.
But an analysis by 38 North, a North Korea-focused U.S. website, said commercial imagery taken last week shows that several operational support buildings have been razed and rails for mining carts have apparently been removed. The site has been used for each of North Korea's six underground nuclear test explosions.

"Commercial satellite imagery from May 7 provided the first definitive evidence that dismantlement of the test site was already well underway," the website wrote.
The site will be dismantled between the 23rd and 25th of May. Journalists from South Korea, the US, China, Russia, and the UK will be invited to observe the destruction of tunnels and observation facilities.
North Korea's Foreign Ministry announced Saturday that it will dismantle the test site between May 23 and 25. To provide transparency, the ministry said journalists from South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Britain will be invited to observe the destruction of tunnels and the removal of observation and research facilities at the site.
South Korea has received notification that eight South Korean journalists will be invited.
Seoul's Unification Ministry said it was informed by the North on Tuesday that eight South Korean journalists will be invited. The North did not reveal the number of spots it will give to non-Korean journalists, according to the ministry.

The eight South Korean journalists — four each from a wire agency and a broadcaster that have yet to be determined — will take a chartered flight from Beijing to the North Korean coastal town of Wonsan on May 22, the ministry said. The reporters will then be transported by a chartered train to the nuclear test site in Punggye-ri.
The two Koreas will hold talks on Wednesday to discuss reducing border tensions and holding family re-unifications. Also on the list for discussion are things such as discussing plans to field joint teams at the Asian Games in August.
The two Koreas will hold a high-level meeting Wednesday at a border truce village to discuss setting up military and Red Cross talks aimed at reducing border tensions and restarting reunions between families separated by the Korean War.

Seoul's Unification Ministry said Tuesday that the meeting will discuss ways to carry out peace commitments made during the inter-Korean summit. The discussions may also include setting up working-level talks between the countries' sports officials over plans to field combined teams in some sports at the Asian Games in August.
 
The idea that demolishing the test site is some sort of 'Peace' gesture is completely bogus. My reading of the media is that the site has collapsed internally and is beyond further ruse anyway. Recovering all re-usable gear, and then blocking the entrances, is merely logical. Only the usual bien-pensant snowflakes and nitwits would believe this has any political meaning.
 
The following is a very interesting web cast of a presentation at the Royal Canadian Military Institute on China and North Korea. It is about an hour and a half long, so allow sufficient time for it.

While North Korea is discussed at length, a great deal of discussion also focuses on China in ways that are not directly related to North Korea, so it is probably of interest from that perspective as well.

 
The North Korea situation is expected to be a major topic of discussion at the upcoming G7 meeting early next month.
Between Trump, Iran and North Korea, Canada's G7 has a high potential for chaos | CBC News

Nobody knows what Trump plans to say at the G7 summit about the Trump-Kim meeting which (assuming it is isn't cancelled) will follow several days later. It is difficult to see how the G7 leaders could come to a consensus on the issue at this stage.
No one knows, of course, what Trump plans to say about North Korea in Charlevoix. But Trump's penchant for making decisions on the fly, and for overruling members of his own administration, has nerves on edge.

"It's hard to see how the G7 leaders could coalesce around a statement on North Korea now," said former Canadian diplomat James Trottier, who led a number of diplomatic delegations to North Korea while posted to the embassy in Seoul from 2013 to 2016.

"The Korean meeting has taken on undue importance for Trump, with Republicans in the U.S. playing up a possible Nobel peace prize."
There are concerns that his decision to withdraw from the Iran agreement presages an intention to dictate to the other G7 countries with respect to North Korea.
But it's Trump's decision earlier this month to withdraw from the Iran agreement — despite heavy lobbying from his allies to stay in — that stokes concerns about what the president thinks he can get from a meeting with Kim, and what he might expect from his G7 partners heading in.
The two issues are linked, and the European allies are not happy about the direction things are taking.
"There are linkages here," said former diplomat Colin Robertson, now vice-president of the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.

"The Europeans are not happy with the U.S. decision on Iran and this will play out with North Korea. There's a whole busload of issues around security and North Korea is just one of those in which there's a divergence of views."
Since nobody seems to know what Trump wants (including many of his own staff), it will be impossible to reach any sort of consensus ahead of the meeting.
Cirincione said that makes it nearly impossible for the G7 to anticipate what Trump will want, let alone reach any sort of consensus.

Will he demand G7 members signal their support for lifting economic sanctions if the meeting with Kim produces a result that he alone thinks is workable? Will he signal his intention to withdraw the nearly 23,000 U.S. troops now based on the Korean peninsula as part of a deal with Kim — a proposal that surely would alarm next-door neighbour Japan?
 

Similar threads

Latest Threads

Top