N Korean nuclear strike could cause chaos in US

We shall have to wait and see what happens.
THAAD deployment and the huge weapons sales to ROK/Jap is only a little piece of a very big logistical jigsaw but something that wouldn't have been allowed if there was no reaction from KJU.
He just keep's playing right into their hands as he's an open book.
Must admit, the US and UN response seems to be a reaction to Tubby IIIs rhetoric and missile/nuke tests which are against UNSC Resolutions. Are you seriously saying Tubby III is acting in US interests? If so, I need to ask where your supply of cranium aluminium foil is coming from as it isn't working.
That's just stupid think.
Gaddafi didn't even get off the ground talking about the gold-backed dinar that cost him his chair and life.
What cost him his life is attacking civilians in Benghazi who were fed up with his rule and getting the UNSC to say there won't be any of his aircraft in the air
China is a completely different animal so of course it will take time.
Research: China buys oil for gold death of petrodollar and you will be on the way to a little bit of knowledge
Here's the link just to help you along: china buys oil for gold death of petrodollar - Google Search
Look at the sites which push the agitprop. You really need to take those blinkers off
READ...THE...THREAD genius.
I've been saying it's all about China right from the start.
DPRK is a smoke screen.
You're like working with special-needs kids
Quite
Trump only has the chair for a set term same as all elected faces.
Do you really think the real power would trust the house to a temporary lodger.
Trump is the man in front of the curtain same as all elected officials- nothing more
And that is the sum of your deduction and end game? Clearly you need some medication. Perhaps a nice little holiday to Pyongyang? That way you can visit the 'none existent' sites and interview ladies in the street about their feelings on Tubby III. Where's the crowdfunding site?
 
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NK has huge stocks of WMD and a massive army with huge amounts of artillery geared for offence, not defence. Their airforce is almost non-existent. If it tips to war then NK will have to be taken as it begins its offence which is likely to start with the attempted destruction of Seoul together with a massive invasion of the South.

The command and control head and most dangerous aspects of NK’s will need to be dealt with immediately. Immediate battlefield information on firing/launch positions for counterstrike using satellite, stealth overflights and existing information then attacking guns/missiles in firing/launch phases. Nuclear, chemical, biological weapons destroyed over the launch area would be a prime deterrent/measure against further launches.
 
The new world order are playing a long and silly game, eh? Decades if not attacking North Korea and China, but now, with an NK nuke, China more powerful than it's been in centuries and the US military more stretched and smaller then any time in 70 years... Now is the time to take them both out!
 
I've been saying it's all about China right from the start.
Yes, but the only issue is that you're wrong.
Military action is looking inevitable. SK may be devastated, but if it can be contained to the peninsula, it does mean mean WW3. I wonder if Japan will also be a target?
It won't be WWIII. Neither the US nor China want a war with each other, so it will be some countries vs North Korea, which will be obliterated.

The only variable is how much of the surrounding area they take with them - some or most of Northern ROK is quite likely, depending on how effective airstrikes and CB fire is against NK artillery and tanks. Worst case scenario is that NK actually manage to put one or more nuclear weapon on target - I'd say it's unlikely, but a big enough danger to make war a very, very dangerous proposition.
 
I am presuming that SK would not be a nuclear target, as NK would be affected by the fallout, and this would seriously upset China..

The west coast of US is a long way, and the missile is likely to be intercepted before it reaches target.

Closer options are Guam and Japan.
 
There won't be an NK once the shooting starts though. Kim would probably be interested on detonating at least one nuke, in order that he might be able to sue for peace on the agreement that he won't do any more.

Guam and Japan might work if Kim really does have nuclear-capable ICBMs - but if he's trying to use manned bombers then he has no hope at that sort of distance.
 
There won't be an NK once the shooting starts though. Kim would probably be interested on detonating at least one nuke, in order that he might be able to sue for peace on the agreement that he won't do any more.

Guam and Japan might work if Kim really does have nuclear-capable ICBMs - but if he's trying to use manned bombers then he has no hope at that sort of distance.
If Kim drops a nuke anywhere, it's an absolute certainty he'll get at least one straight back & probably rather more, as the intent will be to remove any possibility of the bugger launching another.
 
I reckon Fatboy would only the use nukes when he knew the game was over, in the hope of taking as many Yankees as possible.
If it kicks off I reckon it will be conventional, with fatty killing at least tens of thousands of civvies.
It would probably be a couple of weeks before fatboys army starts running out of replenishment. The only hope he could have would be to take all of his objectives early, that is not going to happen.
 
That is a very interesting video. A summary would be:
  • War would likely start as a result of North Korea feeling threatened by outside powers. An example being them interpreting foreign military exercises as being a cover for invasion of North Korea (I'll add that the western panic over Russia's Zapad exercises are a good parallel).
  • Hundreds of thousands of casualties in the first few days - civilian and military.
  • Two million casualties in the first three weeks.
  • North Korea would focus on giving South Korea, especially Seoul, a pasting in the first few hours.
  • They will fire off their artillery rockets and stocks of long range artillery ammunition immediately. I suppose that rather simplifies the task of aircraft searching for North Korea's rockets and artillery shells - just look for the craters in South Korea's main population areas and you'll have found them.
  • North Korea would run out of stocks of food, fuel, etc. within three weeks and their army would start to collapse at that point.
  • It would take the US three weeks to get their heavy equipment from the US to South Korea - in other words they wouldn't get there until the main fighting was already over (cue the usual jokes about the Americans having form for not showing up until the war's nearly over anyway).
  • Once the North Korean army started to collapse for logistics reasons, the leadership would have no reason to not use whatever nuclear weapons they had.

To make a long story short, millions dead and Pyongyang has launched whatever nuclear weapons they may have before the main US force has even arrived.

I will add that it sounds like retaliation against North Korea would be moot, as they will have collapsed already from the effort of putting everything they have into their attack. Instead, they will have focused on taking South Korea down with them. It's like their army is a one shot MAD instrument.
 
I am presuming that SK would not be a nuclear target, as NK would be affected by the fallout, and this would seriously upset China..

The west coast of US is a long way, and the missile is likely to be intercepted before it reaches target.

Closer options are Guam and Japan.
If North Korea ever use their nuclear weapons, China's opinion won't play the slightest degree of consideration in that decision. China's opinion has always been that North Korea shouldn't have any nuclear weapons to begin with.

I would expect that South Korea and Japan, the former especially, would be North Korea's primary nuclear targets. A few "token" (if you can call it that) hits on the US would just be icing on the cake.

I don't think the North Korean leadership expect to survive a war in which nuclear weapons are used. They'll launch when they think they no longer have any reasonable chance of winning a conventional war. In that context, talking about retaliation against North Korea for using nuclear weapons is surreal. If they use them, it will be because they think they will lose without them, or have no chance of survival as a state in any case.

A war between North Korea and the US where North Korea loses means "regime change" so far as the US is concerned. Kim and all of the top leadership know that means they either win, or they all go up against the wall after a show trial conducted by the victors. They would have absolutely no incentive to show any restraint in a war.
 
South Korea braces for possible new missile test to mark North's founding day
Next missile launch likely tomorrow (today in Korea). Last year it was another nuke test but he's done that recently. USS Ronnie Reagan on the move to areas which include that between Korea and Japan.

A response to Nikki saying they're 'begging for war':
North Korea offered fresh vitriol against the pending sanctions, specifically targeting U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who this week accused North Korean leader Kim of “begging for war”.

“There is nothing more foolish than thinking we, a strong nuclear state, will endure this evil pressure aimed at overthrowing our state,” the North’s official news agency said in a commentary.

“Even if Nikki Haley is blind, she must use her mouth correctly. The United States administration will pay for not being able to control the mouth of their U.N. representative.”
South Korea's Moon says there will be no war on Korean peninsula
Moon doesn't think there'll be a war. He's probably (other than Tubby III) in the best position to advise:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Thursday there will not be war on the Korea peninsula, even though tensions have risen considerably since North Korea’s latest nuclear test less than a week ago.
 
Most South Koreans doubt the North will start a war: poll
S Koreans don't think there'll be a war according to a poll. Maybe they're now immune to the rhetoric and sabre rattling? Second highest percentage since the poll began in '92:
A Gallup Korea survey found that 58 percent of South Koreans felt there was no possibility North Korea will cause a war, while 37 percent said they thought it would.

Gallup Korea began asking South Koreans the question in 1992, and the percentage of respondents this time who thought the North would not start a war was the second highest since then.
Gallup believe they may be accustomed to the threats:
“The survey results show South Koreans have likely grown accustomed to its repeated threats of provocation after over 60 years in a ceasefire state,” Gallup Korea said in a statement.
60% want nukes for themselves:
The poll also found that 60 percent of those surveyed believed South Korea should arm itself with nuclear weapons while 35 percent disagreed.

Those in their twenties were most opposed to the idea of acquiring nuclear weapons, while respondents 50 and above said the South should have them.
Nearly as many against a first strike by the IS:
Gallup also said 59 percent of respondents were against the idea of the United States attacking North Korea first should North Korean provocations continue, while 33 percent said it should.
 
If North Korea ever use their nuclear weapons, China's opinion won't play the slightest degree of consideration in that decision. China's opinion has always been that North Korea shouldn't have any nuclear weapons to begin with.

I would expect that South Korea and Japan, the former especially, would be North Korea's primary nuclear targets. A few "token" (if you can call it that) hits on the US would just be icing on the cake.

I don't think the North Korean leadership expect to survive a war in which nuclear weapons are used. They'll launch when they think they no longer have any reasonable chance of winning a conventional war. In that context, talking about retaliation against North Korea for using nuclear weapons is surreal. If they use them, it will be because they think they will lose without them, or have no chance of survival as a state in any case.

A war between North Korea and the US where North Korea loses means "regime change" so far as the US is concerned. Kim and all of the top leadership know that means they either win, or they all go up against the wall after a show trial conducted by the victors. They would have absolutely no incentive to show any restraint in a war.
I think a lot of people are giving the DPRK too much credit...If things get dynamic, I dont think they will know much of what is going on. If they dont fire straight away, they might not get a chance.
 
Trump may have to settle for deterring, not disarming, North Korea
Deterring, not dearming N Korea. The big question would be whether they signed the test ban treaty (CBT) and even if they did, would they rip it up like their earlier signing of the NPT?

US doesn't think a preemptive strike could stop the retaliation. Mattis still looking for a political solution:
U.S. officials declined to discuss operational planning, but acknowledge that no existing plan for a preemptive strike could promise to prevent a brutal counterattack by North Korea, which has thousands of artillery pieces and rockets trained on Seoul.

In an implicit recognition that the military options against the North are unpalatable at best and pyrrhic at worst, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis last week told reporters: “We are never out of diplomatic solutions.”
Anonymous Trump official (?) thinks detente as with the Sov/WP may not work:
Still, a senior Trump administration official said it is unclear whether the Cold War-era deterrence model that Washington used with the Soviet Union could be applied to a rogue state like North Korea, adding: “I don’t think the president wants to take that chance.”

“We are very concerned that North Korea might not be able to be deterred,” the official said, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity shortly after Trump’s remarks.
Update the nukes, ABMs but try to avoid an arms race with China and Russia:
Among the U.S. options to strengthen its deterrent is the long-planned modernization of America’s aging nuclear forces that would assure that North Korea would be destroyed if it fired a nuclear-tipped missile at the United States, a U.S. military base, Japan, or South Korea.

Another is stepped-up investment in U.S. missile defenses, particularly testing, research and development of technologies that could defeat a significant number of incoming missiles.

Both steps would need to avoid triggering new arms races with Beijing and Moscow, experts say.
Pressure DPRK to sign the CBT? Will Trump be happy with that?
“Signing the CTBT would given the North tacit admission to the nuclear club but end its testing program,” the official said. “That, along with assured destruction, might be the best that could be done.”

The remaining question, however, is whether Trump would be willing to settle for that.

“Discipline and steadiness are not words one usually uses in a sentence that also has the name Donald Trump,” said Robert Einhorn, a former State Department official who negotiated with North Korea and is now at the Brookings Institution think tank. “Would he over time recognize that he may have no choice?”
 

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