Munich Security Report published "sees world as broken puzzle"

#1
The Munich Security Report 2019 has been published in time for the Munich Security Conference.

You can download a PDF copy of the 102 page report here http://report2019.securityconference.de/
The conference provides a short summary here: Munich Security Report - Munich Security Conference

Deutsche Welle has an article which attempts to summarise some of it's findings and has links to associated articles.

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Munich Security Report sees world as a broken puzzle | DW | 11.02.2019

Trump gets singled out and there is concern about his admiration for authoritarian types and apparent dwindling interest in NATO. Brexit uncertainty is mentioned as is the possibility of opportunity for tier 2 countries such as UK and Canada. Russia & China vs West while also competing with each other. France v Germany issues eg Nordstream 2.

Sorry no time to provide a more comprehensive summary right now.
 
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#3
Précis: what’s going on? Feck knows...
I am grateful to the OP and have added that document to the e-reading pile.

"What's going on?" Always was a good Executive Summary.

Plus the correct Protective Marking.

PM Guide.jpeg
 
#4
I found some of the polls to be the most interesting bits. Three out of five US allies polled see the US as being a bigger threat to themselves than Russia or China. The other two US allies see the US as being the second biggest threat.

Other than Japan and the US, all of the countries see China is being relatively low on the threat scale. Other than Japan, no US ally sees China as being a greater threat to themselves than the US is.

Which country is a major threat to your own?
  • US - 50% Russia, 48% China.
  • Japan - 69% China, 66% US, 49% Russia.
  • UK - 45% Russia, 37% US, 29% China.
  • Canada - 46% US, 32% Russia, 31% China.
  • Russia - 43% US, 20% China.
  • Germany - 49% US, 33% China, 30% Russia.
  • France - 49% US, 40% Russia, 40% China.

None of the countries polled see Trump as being the leader they have most confidence in to do the right thing for the world. Three out of five US allies see Trump as less than or tied with Putin when it comes to being trusted to do the right thing. Macron and Merkel are rated highest in every country except Russia. Russia is the only country who see their own leader as being best. Xi Jinping is rated above Trump in every country except Japan and the US. In the US Xi Jinping is rated higher than any other country rates Trump.

Who do you have confidence in to do the right thing regarding world affairs?
  • US - 59% Macron, 55% Merkel, 48% Trump, 39% Xi Jinping, 21% Putin.
  • Japan - 65% Merkel, 51% Macron, 30% Trump, 26% Putin, 17% Xi Jinping.
  • UK - 62% Merkel, 55% Macron, 39% Xi Jinping, 28% Trump, 22% Putin.
  • Canada - 68% Merkel, 64% Macron, 42% Xi Jinping, 25% Trump, 25% Putin.
  • Russia - 81% Putin, 50% Xi Jinping, 27% Merkel, 26% Macron, 19% Trump.
  • Germany - 77% Macron, 68% Merkel, 35% Putin, 30% Xi Jinping, 10% Trump.
  • France - 78% Merkel, 64% Macron, 26% Xi Jinping, 20% Putin, 9% Trump.

It should be noted that the following poll is about who will have a positive influence, not who will have the most influence. That aside, the US ranks below China and not really that far above Russia.

Which country will have a positive influence on world affairs over the next decade?
  • Canada 77%
  • Germany 71%
  • France 67%
  • UK 63%
  • China 53%
  • India 51%
  • US 50%
  • Russia 43%
  • Israel 35%
  • Saudi Arabia 34%
  • Iran 25%
It appears that the US's reputation has suffered greatly, and likely largely due to Trump himself. This will affect the ability of the US to get allies to go along with them in any ventures they may have.

It also appears that the US concern about China is not shared by anyone other than Japan. The US obsession about China is not resonating amongst most US allies and they may have difficulty in lining up any sort of coalition to hobble China's rise to influence in the world.

The report itself also notes how it is the US's allies who seem to be in line for the most verbal abuse by the US, while Trump saves his flattery for dictators and murderers.
Moreover, the US effort to rally “the noble nations of the world to build a new liberal order” and to oppose authoritarian great powers would be far more credible if President Trump and his administration did not display an irritating enthusiasm for strongmen across the globe, suggesting that this administration is living in a “post-human rights world.” For long-time transatlantic allies, it is still hard to stomach when Trump praises illiberal leaders from Brazil to the Philippines and defies his intelligence agencies in declaring his support for Saudi Arabia after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, while reserving his harshest criticism for Canada, Germany, or the European Union.
All of this would seem to suggest that the US is currently pursuing a self-defeating set of foreign policies.
 
#7
Why does Trump get singled out for his alleged admiration of authoritarian types, but Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau says "I admire China's dictatorship" and nobody bats and eyelid?

Yeah I know..... Because it's [insert current year].
 

rampant

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#8
Why does Trump get singled out for his alleged admiration of authoritarian types, but Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau says "I admire China's dictatorship" and nobody bats and eyelid?

Yeah I know..... Because it's [insert current year].
Because since being in office Trudeau has shown himself to be rather hard nosed against dictators and hasn't been afraid of upsetting the Chinese or others on the world stage.

Trump on the other hand just rolls over and ask what daddy wants
 
#9
Why does Trump get singled out for his alleged admiration of authoritarian types, but Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau says "I admire China's dictatorship" and nobody bats and eyelid?

Yeah I know..... Because it's [insert current year].

Trump is not popular. But I did have to roll my eyes about the US not being willing to meet treaty obligations. The hypocrisy from Germany and Western Europe is blinding.
They agreed to a number and are not going to be able to reach it. If you are not willing to do something for yourself, don’t expect others to be in a hurry to show up to your rescue.
 
#10
Because since being in office Trudeau has shown himself to be rather hard nosed against dictators and hasn't been afraid of upsetting the Chinese or others on the world stage.

Trump on the other hand just rolls over and ask what daddy wants
Has he? Clearly he has an image problem as he is seen as something of a wet drip. Is he really a principled leader willing to take a stand?

Have I misjudged the guy?
 

rampant

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#11
So far he's stuck two fingers up at Saudi, China, Pakistan, can't say I'm a fan but he's taken a more principled stand than a lot of Western leaders.
 

Guns

ADC
Moderator
Book Reviewer
#12
As much as I dislike “nice hair, call me Justin” the current government has been, on occasions hard nosed with some whom our noisy neighbours to the Sputh prefer to roll over and have their tummies tickled. Well, their President do3s.
 
#13
As much as I dislike “nice hair, call me Justin” the current government has been, on occasions hard nosed with some whom our noisy neighbours to the Sputh prefer to roll over and have their tummies tickled. Well, their President do3s.
Sputh huh...Sir I am going to ask you to put the maple syrup down and answer some questions...
 

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