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Mrs May - whither (or wither) the Tory Party

4(T)

LE
The thread is also entitled 'whither the Tory Party' so here goes.

Watched the programme last night about the Tory Party "Tories at war" where a camera team followed the trials and tribulations of the Tories over a year.

Very interesting and the split in the Tories was quite apparent, although editing would be designed to show that. A lot of time was spent with Alan "I love me" Duncan who railed at the ERG constantly, swearing frequently and furiously, blaming them for the break-up of the Tory Party. Absolutely nothing about him and his cohort of 21 rebels trying to follow a deal that parliament had thrown out with huge defeats. All the fault of the ERG not voting for it. 20 or 30 ERG members yet it lost by three figure amounts. Duncan came across as a bitter, narcissistic tw@t.

Overall the programme was just like any other fly-on-the-wall documentary with very obvi8s editing to keep matters on the split in the Tories.

Here is a review from the Independent (which is anything but) which gives a good run down of the programme. Tories at War review: Lack of restraint among Conversatives is stunning to behold

And one from the other side of the spectrum, the Telegraph Tories at War, review: a jarringly jaunty documentary about our democratic crisis

If you missed it, look it up on Catch Up TV, very entertaining. I think @Brotherton Lad was the editor! ;)



I think the Tories are about 30 years overdue for a split and reformation.

If you peruse through the articles and responding comments in ConservativeHome, its quite apparent that there are two entirely immiscible groups in the commanding part of the party (activists, Westminster, HQ, MPs). By far the larger part appears to be solidly left-liberal, with only a much smaller rump standing for traditional Conservatism.

These proportions appear to be reversed among the grassroots and local members - but then they appear to be irrelevant to the Westminster party.

I find it diffucult to envisage how the current Tory party will ever again raise a strong government that enjoys the support of "middle England" and other core electoral blocks.

Probably like many/most on Arrse, I'm a typical Brit who adheres to a "c"onservative world view. I actually stopped voting Tory when they anointed CMD to the leadership - I viewed that as an unacceptable leap to the left, and I saw right through that particular character at the time.

Now, when I read through ConservativeHome and examine the views and motivations expressed there, I just feel that the majority of the Westminster Tory party are not aligned with my "c"onservative views, and that,. therefore, I cannot vote for them.

I think a lot of people would hope that BJ or Mogg turns out to be a political colossus, and that they'll bin the old Tory brand, lead away the remaining old school Conservatives, and build a new party based on "c"onservative values. Sadly, I think that is very unlikely - the self preservation of the Tory party apparatus quite demonstrably over-rides even political philosophy. Probably they'll just continue the march to the populist Left.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
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Reviews Editor
Good post 4(T).

Up until now the Tories have not had to worry about their core vote and safe seats so have chased the middle ground more and more leading to a centerist party that is barely right in the spectrum. This is now coming to bite them on the bum, much in the same way Labour are fighting left and centerist policies.

If this went down it's natural course then we would have 3 main parties Tory (right) Labour (left) and a centerist populist party - stand fast the Limp Dums.

The new centerist party would have the likes of Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn leading them.

We certainly live in interesting times.

I think the next target for destruction is the Speaker, especially Bercow before he goes. I hope Harriet Harperson does not get the job as her female bias will immediately make the office if Speaker biased, and unworkable.
 

Joe_Private

On ROPS
On ROPs
...

I think the next target for destruction is the Speaker, especially Bercow before he goes. I hope Harriet Harperson does not get the job as her female bias will immediately make the office if Speaker biased, and unworkable.
I think that is terribly misogynistic. Women make excellent speakers. God knows they get enough practice. Dreadful listeners, though.
 
I think the Tories are about 30 years overdue for a split and reformation.

If you peruse through the articles and responding comments in ConservativeHome, its quite apparent that there are two entirely immiscible groups in the commanding part of the party (activists, Westminster, HQ, MPs). By far the larger part appears to be solidly left-liberal, with only a much smaller rump standing for traditional Conservatism.

These proportions appear to be reversed among the grassroots and local members - but then they appear to be irrelevant to the Westminster party.

I find it diffucult to envisage how the current Tory party will ever again raise a strong government that enjoys the support of "middle England" and other core electoral blocks.

Probably like many/most on Arrse, I'm a typical Brit who adheres to a "c"onservative world view. I actually stopped voting Tory when they anointed CMD to the leadership - I viewed that as an unacceptable leap to the left, and I saw right through that particular character at the time.

Now, when I read through ConservativeHome and examine the views and motivations expressed there, I just feel that the majority of the Westminster Tory party are not aligned with my "c"onservative views, and that,. therefore, I cannot vote for them.

I think a lot of people would hope that BJ or Mogg turns out to be a political colossus, and that they'll bin the old Tory brand, lead away the remaining old school Conservatives, and build a new party based on "c"onservative values. Sadly, I think that is very unlikely - the self preservation of the Tory party apparatus quite demonstrably over-rides even political philosophy. Probably they'll just continue the march to the populist Left.
As you don't feel able to vote for the Conservatives, who in your opinion is likely to receive your vote, or do you plan to not vote?
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
As you don't feel able to vote for the Conservatives, who in your opinion is likely to receive your vote, or do you plan to not vote?

And that is the real danger to our democracy, if the plebs stop voting. I know the bastards in parliament, of all hues, have been treating the electorate abysmally, highlighted by this brexit fiasco, but if people stop voting then the country is in danger of falling even further into the thrall of the professional politicians, in it not for Party, Country or constituent, but in it for their career.
 
Good post 4(T).

1.Up until now the Tories have not had to worry about their core vote and safe seats so have chased the middle ground more and more leading to a centerist party that is barely right in the spectrum. This is now coming to bite them on the bum, much in the same way Labour are fighting left and centerist policies.

2.If this went down it's natural course then we would have 3 main parties Tory (right) Labour (left) and a centerist populist party - stand fast the Limp Dums.

3.The new centerist party would have the likes of Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn leading them.

We certainly live in interesting times.

4.I think the next target for destruction is the Speaker, especially Bercow before he goes. I hope Harriet Harperson does not get the job as her female bias will immediately make the office if Speaker biased, and unworkable.

1. Spot on, I think since the last days of Mrs T the Conservatives have been aiming for the middle ground, targetting those who weren't sure whether to vote Blue or Red. That's led to more Liberal views to attract this band of voters which in turn has led to more Liberal tory MPs. Ken Clarke was always there though, the biggest Liberal tory existing.

2. Not sure about that, I think those currently jumping ship to the Liberal Democrats will steer that party to the middle ground, a natural home for those who don't fit into hard left Labour or BoJo's vision for the Conservatives.

3. If so they wouldn't get my support, two MPs who are diametrically opposed to the people deciding what the want. No thanks.

4. Lindsay Hoyle would be my bet, he's impressed me everytime I've seen him in the chair and I can't think of anyone better.
 

Themanwho

LE
Book Reviewer
And that is the real danger to our democracy, if the plebs stop voting. I know the bastards in parliament, of all hues, have been treating the electorate abysmally, highlighted by this brexit fiasco, but if people stop voting then the country is in danger of falling even further into the thrall of the professional politicians, in it not for Party, Country or constituent, but in it for their career.
Agree, but what other message can us plebs send that stands any chance of getting the message across? I'd love the Labour heartlands to suffer from exactly this, but I think we all know it won't.
 
I think the next target for destruction is the Speaker, especially Bercow before he goes. I hope Harriet Harperson does not get the job as her female bias will immediately make the office if Speaker biased, and unworkable.

I believe that the chicanery and damage done by Bercow will be as nothing compared to Harriet Harman getting the job.
She has done more than any other individual I can think of to change the attitude of this Society with her quarter century working in Civil Liberties.

Whenever you hear about scrotes getting away with something because they are Minorities, or Police unable to approach, stop and search, investigate in some circumstances, the knock-ons from her influence is rarely far away.

She is too dangerous to hold that position.
 
And that is the real danger to our democracy, if the plebs stop voting. I know the bastards in parliament, of all hues, have been treating the electorate abysmally, highlighted by this brexit fiasco, but if people stop voting then the country is in danger of falling even further into the thrall of the professional politicians, in it not for Party, Country or constituent, but in it for their career.

This is something, I have said many times. The political class dont care if we dont vote... This is why we must.

No political party is going to perfectly align with a voters concerns, but as it stands now all parties are largely ignoring the their majority base, and have produced manifestos that are largely a fiction and ignored post an elections, although Labour is going all 1970's, with theirs at 'conference'.

Ironically the one party with no formal manifesto at this time, and i suggest is gathering a wide support from those who are increasingly feeling abandoned and disenfranchised is the Brexit Party, while at the same time being portrayed as hard right and guilty of embracing all of the the "ism's and ist's".

We live in interesting times.
 

Gout Man

LE
Book Reviewer
I think the Tories are about 30 years overdue for a split and reformation.

If you peruse through the articles and responding comments in ConservativeHome, its quite apparent that there are two entirely immiscible groups in the commanding part of the party (activists, Westminster, HQ, MPs). By far the larger part appears to be solidly left-liberal, with only a much smaller rump standing for traditional Conservatism.

These proportions appear to be reversed among the grassroots and local members - but then they appear to be irrelevant to the Westminster party.

I find it diffucult to envisage how the current Tory party will ever again raise a strong government that enjoys the support of "middle England" and other core electoral blocks.

Probably like many/most on Arrse, I'm a typical Brit who adheres to a "c"onservative world view. I actually stopped voting Tory when they anointed CMD to the leadership - I viewed that as an unacceptable leap to the left, and I saw right through that particular character at the time.

Now, when I read through ConservativeHome and examine the views and motivations expressed there, I just feel that the majority of the Westminster Tory party are not aligned with my "c"onservative views, and that,. therefore, I cannot vote for them.

I think a lot of people would hope that BJ or Mogg turns out to be a political colossus, and that they'll bin the old Tory brand, lead away the remaining old school Conservatives, and build a new party based on "c"onservative values. Sadly, I think that is very unlikely - the self preservation of the Tory party apparatus quite demonstrably over-rides even political philosophy. Probably they'll just continue the march to the populist Left.
They haven’t had a good decent what I would call strong Tory leader since Maggie.
IF Boris can pull off this Brexit mess on 31st Oct then he might just end this run, the lefty like of Clarke and Grieve and Stewart and Hammond can gladly pee off and hopefully they will be replaced by proper right of centre tories.
 

4(T)

LE
As you don't feel able to vote for the Conservatives, who in your opinion is likely to receive your vote, or do you plan to not vote?


I voted UKIP in Farage days, then scratched around for independents who might reflect my views (and sadly most of them are so anonymous its impossible to understand what they stand for). My local Tory is/was Sam Gyimah; my assessment of him turned out to be spot on as well - so still no vote for the Tories there either.

Its always been a truism of western democracy that you must vote, otherwise you cannot complain about the government you get, etc.

Sadly, it appears that, politically, this truism no longer applies. The constitutional crisis that lies behind Brexit is largely centred around a public perception, expanding over the past decades, that the outcome of voting does not in fact reflect the voters' intent, or that the political class all sit in one place, and there is no party willing to offer voters even a public debate on what they want (vide a major public concern, such as the impact of mass immigration).

Until the advent of UKIP and then TBP, it felt very much as if UK had moved to some sort of foreign "managed" democracy. E.g. such as in Russia: you can vote from the list of approved candidates (sorry your first few choices were not actually allowed to stand), but you will get nice Mr Putin anyway.

The way that the political class have blackmailed the electorate over the past months ("vote Tory or get Corbyn", etc) is to me completely unacceptable. I think its fortunate that BoJo didn't get his GE, because I think he and the Tories badly underestimate how resistant Brits are to threats. The constitution vandalism and destruction of the Parliamentary system makes me wonder whether there is even any point in having a GE until there has been a complete political reformation of some sort.

Where we go from here in terms of the Tory party now depends upon Brexit. If BoJo delivers a No Deal Bexit on the 31st and goes on to lead a thumping "for Britain" programme, then I might vote Tory (at least until he gets deposed and the wets return). Anything less than that, then I'd hope TBP decide to transform into a permanent party and stand candidates in all constituencies.
 
1. Spot on, I think since the last days of Mrs T the Conservatives have been aiming for the middle ground, targetting those who weren't sure whether to vote Blue or Red. That's led to more Liberal views to attract this band of voters which in turn has led to more Liberal tory MPs. Ken Clarke was always there though, the biggest Liberal tory existing.

2. Not sure about that, I think those currently jumping ship to the Liberal Democrats will steer that party to the middle ground, a natural home for those who don't fit into hard left Labour or BoJo's vision for the Conservatives.

3. If so they wouldn't get my support, two MPs who are diametrically opposed to the people deciding what the want. No thanks.

4. Lindsay Hoyle would be my bet, he's impressed me everytime I've seen him in the chair and I can't think of anyone better.

But interestingly, when I suggested, that The Tory Party was moving to the right, the other day, I was challenged and it was refuted. I think it is definitely happening.
 

Joe_Private

On ROPS
On ROPs
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The way that the political class have blackmailed the electorate over the past months ("vote Tory or get Corbyn", etc) is to me completely unacceptable. I think its fortunate that BoJo didn't get his GE, because I think he and the Tories badly underestimate how resistant Brits are to threats...
I think they borrowed that tactic from elsewhere, possibly Labour, possibly SNP.
 
The Tory party is sadly no longer fit for purpose and will I feel morph into something new while the liberal faction migrate to the Lib Dems and the ultra right either die (average age of party was over 65) or play with the Brexit Party till that is no longer relevant as Brexit is either resolved or booted into the long grass.
The Conservatives are split the Labour Party are fundamentally split and the Liberals will hoover up the votes and are dangerous. The Liberals have no left or right of arc for what is Liberal it just becomes more extreme.
We are all doomed!
 

MortonSlumber

Old-Salt
As Mrs May fcuked the country should we all line up infront of Phil & give her one?
1569237863454.png

She looks ready for something big & meaty, perhaps a cosh round the back of the neck?
 
But interestingly, when I suggested, that The Tory Party was moving to the right, the other day, I was challenged and it was refuted. I think it is definitely happening.
I don't think its moving its just that the Cons under 'Our Dave' managed to get their deck chairs onto the Labour beaches. I watched DC very closely inhabit the Liberal heartlands with the same sex marriage issue and other more non traditional Tory issues. Since he threw his toys out of the cot the in fighting began and the traditional core became exposed again.
 
Up until now the Tories have not had to worry about their core vote and safe seats so have chased the middle ground more and more leading to a centrist party that is barely right in the spectrum. This is now coming to bite them on the bum, much in the same way Labour are fighting left and centrist policies.

If this went down it's natural course then we would have 3 main parties Tory (right) Labour (left) and a centerist populist party - stand fast the Lib Dems.

It's an interesting contrast between what (I think) history shows, and what the "politically active" think. Historically, if you want to win a General Election, you need the votes in the middle as well as the votes of either left or right. Abandon the middle, and you lose power. Refuse to acknowledge the centre, or your mistakes, and repeat your losses.

Take a look at the similarities...

Mrs T picked up the centre ground vote in 1979, because Labour/Unions had screwed the economy.. Then, as time went on, the "right" of the Party stopped being grateful for being in government, and started to flex their muscle. The Conservative party went "right", started talking about "wets", and tried to push their pet projects through. The community charge being a shiny example of idealist stupidity over pragmatism; and in 1997, they lose power.

The "right" of the Party then refused to admit that they might have pulled things too far from the centre, and insisted that the reason they'd lost was that they hadn't been "right" enough. So they get their choice into power (Hague), and lose an election in 2001. Replace them with further-"right"-thinking person (Howard), and lose an election in 2005. Finally, they pick a centrist leader, make themselves electable, and regain power in 2010 and again in 2015.

Same for Labour.

Blair picked up the centre ground vote in 1997. Then, as time went on, the "left" of the Party stopped being grateful for being in government, and started to flex their muscle. The Labour party went "left", started talking about "Blairites", and tried to push their pet projects through. The PFI and ID card schemes being a shiny example of idealist stupidity over pragmatism; and in 2010, they lose power.

The "left" of the Party then refused to admit that they might have pulled things too far from the centre, and insisted that the reason they'd lost was that they hadn't been "left" enough. So they get their choice into power (Milliband), and lose an election in 2015. Replace them with further "left"-thinking person (Corbyn), and lose an election in 2017. Finally, they pick a centrist leader, make themselves electable, and regain power in 2021. Yeah, right.
 

Joe_Private

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It's an interesting contrast between what (I think) history shows, and what the "politically active" think. Historically, if you want to win a General Election, you need the votes in the middle as well as the votes of either left or right. Abandon the middle, and you lose power. Refuse to acknowledge the centre, or your mistakes, and repeat your losses.

...
The issue du jour is fairly binary, despite Labour's attempt to take the middle ground, of which there is none, just a very high fence on which they are sitting in a very exposed position. So, for the next GE, Left Right and Centre are unimportant when contrasted with In/Out.
 

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