Mozambique - The Next War?

A bit South but have posted on this theme. This topic was mentioned on the Op Serval - Mali item recently but by the look of it I have opened a dedicated theme. Mozambique is a Commonwealth country, request for military assistance heading for BoJo's in tray?

If they are commonwealth, it must be Portuguese commonwealth.
 

cowgoesmoo

Old-Salt
If they are commonwealth, it must be Portuguese commonwealth.
They're definitely in our commonwealth, even if the official lingo is Portuguese!

 

Yokel

LE
Al-Shabab is how Mozambicans now refer to a shadowy Islamist insurgency that began four years ago in the province - an insurgency that was initially dismissed as a minor distraction in a region that is rich in minerals and focused on reaping the benefits of an international $15bn (£11bn) off-shore gas project.

Today things look very different, with a third of the province's population forced to flee. The US state department has designated the insurgents as a terrorist organisation dubbed "Isis-Mozambique" - a reference to the franchise arrangement that the Islamic State group (IS) is believed to have set up with the local faction.


Can the international community afford to let Daesh or whatever they call themselves have a safe haven?
 

maguire

LE
Book Reviewer
Can the international community afford to let Daesh or whatever they call themselves have a safe haven?

will the international community want to get involved, if it's not on its own doorstep? particularly bearing in mind the last twenty years?
 

maguire

LE
Book Reviewer
South African forces not what they were. May be a blind eye on contract soldiers/soldiers of fortune?

and face the howls of colonialism / atrocities / whatever else the left on all sides will fling? not saying you're wrong, just playing devils advocate.
 
The EU has also been asked for support. So far an EUTM MOZ has been ruled out.

France has Total in situ with a multi billion euros project but so far the MOZ authoriries have been reluctant to accept support from any Western nation.

With IS progresses, it could change but at the moment it's mostly PMC country
 

Yokel

LE
But Mozambique is close to shipping lanes for many vessels that go around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal. That makes it strategically interesting.
 
NATO task or bi lateral ?

Nothing to do with NATO, so some sort of training-team I suppose.

The Mali training-team type of thing might help in the short-term, but longer term the problem is political and/or educational, and there is a consistent record of failure of that sort of thing on the continent. A military training program could at best only give 'space' for political improvement, but is any small chance of success better than writing off another country? Probably the Moz government fighting an endless civil-war, using semi-trained forces, isn't going to allow any simultaneous social improvements, so things would deteoriate - not a pretty picture, but is it worth an effort?

What is happening on the other side of the border though? Is Tanzania having a similar insurgency? And Zimbabwe too, further West of course, will they have (even more) problems? Is the insurgency limited to one of the tribal / language groups in northern Mozambique? If so, why?
 
MOZ does not seem too keen on hosting foreign forces on its soil at this stage. It prefers to ask multinational companies (Total, Eni, Exxon...) that are working in MOZ pay to secure the "useful" parts of the country where they are present for LNG extraction rather that address the terrorist problem globally.

France is a neighbour for MOZ (Réunion and Mayotte islands) and as such as already offered support on several occasions but to no avail AFAIK.
 

army1

Old-Salt
A bit South but have posted on this theme. This topic was mentioned on the Op Serval - Mali item recently but by the look of it I have opened a dedicated theme. Mozambique is a Commonwealth country, request for military assistance heading for BoJo's in tray?

better hurry up , i have only 5 years left in service , been waiting for war from day 1
 
and face the howls of colonialism / atrocities / whatever else the left on all sides will fling? not saying you're wrong, just playing devils advocate.

Quite a few already operating in Nigeria, training and ops. Blokes of that generation are somewhat long in the tooth by now but most have no other choice in order to earn a crust, BBEEE being what it is.
 

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