Middle East turmoil is this really a popular uprising or is it orchestrated

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by gizmo17, Feb 19, 2011.

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  1. Egypt, Tunisia Bahrain and libya. knock on effect from neighboring countrys I can accept but this amount of unrest
    throughout the region suggests to me a state/faction led agitation.

    Who would benifit from such an upsurge in unrest but neither does seem it is targeted on pro western or isolationist regimes(Libya).

    Can this really be a cross state popular upriseing?
     
  2. Didn't you get the memo? This is all the run up for next year.
     
  3. revolution is catching happened after the french revoultion.
    spreads more rapidly when you have TV.
    middle east tryants all pretty shit people share the same language/culture.
    whats not to love hause of saud bye bye :)
     
  4. Grumblegrunt

    Grumblegrunt LE Book Reviewer

    I reckon it will, while not as instantaneous as the warsaw pact collapse we will probably see perseverence as the people realise they have a chance of they are prepared for a kicking and so far they are. libya is proving an exception in the sense of some of it is tribal and thats why bengazi is exploding while tripoli is relatively calm.

    the bad governments and dictatorships are probably easier targets than the absolute/tribal monarchies who dont have a history of mass popular representation because they werent allowed any.

    as long as they prove to be secular and not islamic then the military and ruling powers lose their arguaments. especially as they have been telling us that democracy isnt an natural thing in the arab world and the west should let it develop naturally - which it isnt but only because someone with a bigger stick gets in power first, however I reckon we can class this as a natural development. I reckon globalisation has had a lot to do with it as it has ruined economic bases while improving the quality of the corruption.

    It would be nice if the afghans got their act together.

    did anyone catch the report on indicting the taliban for war crimes and sticking them in the hague?
     
  5. Grumblegrunt

    Grumblegrunt LE Book Reviewer

    mind you the french pushed for a revolution in america then got upset when it came home and they all got a haircut. similar to america preaching freedom of choice whilst being the world leader in state sponsored terrorism then complaining when someone decides to get their own back
     
  6. Mind you they all do seem to be 'People's revolts' and not "Islamic revolts".

    john

    Did say, Seem to be.
     
  7. When in Bahrain, they were always looking over their shoulder at Iran for trouble-making, but the Bahrain regime is viewed by the populace as benevolent in the same way the Romans were (roads, schools, electricity etc etc). My last comms from there (lost comms now) were the rioters were viewed as criminals and it's time for all sensible people to come to the aid of His Highness, etc - perceptions of Iranian sponsorship piggybacking on 'the cause'. Always were plenty of pix of the Ayatollah in the less fashionable districts.

    If change comes, it means Iran could close the Gulf as it'll own both sides of it. Not a bad result for a 'popular uprising'. costs pennies to finance and no state acts of aggression, so the West will have to keep our noses out for now.
     
  8. Quaboo's, Oman controls one side of Persian Gulf.

    john
     
  9. Thats the really interesting bit, what outcome we will see to the political map I don't know but it is a game changer either way.
     
  10. Revolutions spread rapidly and this reminds me more of the progressive revolutions of Europe in the 19th century more than 89. Another model for comparison that received too little attention is 68 with its fragmented, enthusiastic and finally feckless youth movements. Organic responses to perceived oppression and largely failures followed by waves of bitter terrorism.

    The Iranians stand to gain from this but it even has some risks for them. They are agile opportunists and will have assets in place to exploit such situations, that HA cell escaping from prison in Cairo springs to mind. But I don't see anything that suggest they are a prime mover.

    Another power that's likely to advance is Turkey, it's emerging as the model for the region. Like Iran it swung its weight behind change in Cairo as DC etc dithered and fretted.

    Then there is Russia, anything that compromises Western European access to hydrocarbons is in the big picture good for the Kremlin even if Gazprom loses some deals.

    Oil is up above $100. At this rate there are going to severe consequences hitting the still fragile economies EU hard. The fall of Gaddafi in particular (and the old brute is looking shakier than I expected) might trigger a double dip.
     
  11. OldSnowy

    OldSnowy LE Moderator Book Reviewer

    Many revolutions start out as populist uprisings and are then taken over and directed by a small group of dedicated fanatics - Russia is a prime example of that, Persia in the '70s another. as has been shown in the past (Nazi Germany, for one), and as is happening in Lebanon and Gaza, democracy is great, as you only have to win an election - once....

    What we are seeing in the Middle East now is the same thing. In Egypt the Islamists are on the rise, their main leader has just been invited 'home'. He's a nice moderate chap - kill apostates, kill Gays, practice female genital mutilation (clitorodectomy -no fun for them!), kill all Jews, destroy Israel, and spread Islam across the globe. Apart from those few points, I'm sure that he's kind to animals and a great theologian.

    Very very scary stuff, and if you are not worried about the rise of militant Sunni islam in the area, and its effects on us, then you should be.

    His name is Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, and he's been exiled from Egypt since the '60s.
     
  12. And here is the long weather forecast for the Middle East:

    Very bright today, SPF 50,000,000 sun block is advised, do not look directly at the instant sunshine.
     
  13. In the words of Will Farrell in 'Step Brothers' "if you push people hard enough they will rise up against you", or summut like..but you get the drift. BLAME WILL FARRELL!!!
     
  14. I'm sure Israel's not too happy about Qaradawi showing up. Ken Livingstone's mate once said "“Oh Allah, take this oppressive, Jewish, Zionist band of people. Oh Allah, do not spare a single one of them. Oh Allah, count their numbers, and kill them, down to the very last one.”

    Yesterday in Cairo he addressed crowds with the following : "A message to our brothers in Palestine: I have hope that Almighty Allah, as I have been pleased with the victory in Egypt, that He will also please me with the conquest of the al-Aqsa Mosque, to prepare the way for me to preach in the al-Aqsa Mosque. May Allah prepare the way for us to (preach) in the al-Aqsa Mosque in safety–not in fear, not in haste. May Allah achieve this clear conquest for us. O sons of Palestine, I am confident that you will be victorious."

    oops
     
  15. Reports now of F1 mirage's from Libya landing in Malta possible defections or pilots simply legging it.

    My main concern here is if it is spontaneous there will be a vacuum who will fill it ?