MH17: Russia liable for downing airliner over Ukraine

I am not on the ground and freely admit to a lack of knowledge; blundering in the last time, to an interesting thread. How much actual support, does the separatist movement have in the eastern Ukraine ?
It depends who you talk to and who's asking the question. Some in east Ukraine may be wary of the question and may give the answer they think the questioner wants to hear.

However, the longer answer is this.

It's not black and white as @scalieback has stated and you will get mixed views within the region. Not everyone in east Ukraine is Russian speaking with the rural countryside as far as I am aware being ethnic Ukrainian and the big towns and cities generally Russian speaking and/or ethnic Russian. However, even within the Russian speakers there will be pro and anti Ukrainian sentiment and pro and anti separatist tendencies.

East Ukraine was the power base for Yanukovich and throughout Ukraine's post independence history, the regions were both badly served by the central government (in fact everybody was badly served except if you were in power) and also called upon to vote for those who they thought would serve their interests. So Yanukovich, may he rot in hell, appealed in general mostly to Russian speakers and pro Russians.

As far as I am aware, calls for separatism whilst there was weak and had Russia not intervened Kyiv would most likely have subdued the move and still be in control.

In fact, Russia was banking on separatism being stronger than it was and found a general lack of support. Girkin and others sent in by Russia complained of it and had to manufacture a separatist movement to give it some form of legitimacy and cover.

A good starting point is this poll taken not long after the events unfolded:

News - The views and opinions of South-Eastern regions residents of Ukraine: April 2014

The ususal suspects will of course claim the poll is politically motivated and biased.

Just to add, after 1991 independence the most Russian of regions Crimea elected to stay in Ukraine though a political compromise was made for it to be an autonomous region. the sad fact is that central government mismanagement, general corruption and incompetence did not help and that goes for other regions too.
 
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It would seem more people of an opinion in E Ukraine; favour joining Russia, than staying with the Ukraine. But, a seeming silent majority, are undecided, would likely rather wish Russia, would just go away and are trapped between the two opposing forces. Was it ever thus, for the innocents trapped between two warring factions.

The Ukrainian Army must have picked up some doctrine and behavioural attitudes, from the old Soviet Army and lets face it, Russian military operations, were always brutal affairs. So I can accept the agitprop, that the Ukrainians aren't angels.

The Separatist Army will be an undisciplined rabble off duty and you wonder how many have been conscripted. A mixed bag and the same sort of rubbish, as the bosnian serbs were, when a more professional Croatian army swatted them out of the way (operation storm). So, the Russians can't leave, because the Ukrainian army, would likely roll in the day after.

It is an unresolvable conflict; Putin is the aggressor, but the Russians are simply too pig headed to shift as the constant agitprop demonstrates, they are in denial. The Ukraine can't back down, as its a sovereignty issue. For the MH-17 victims and the poor people of E Ukraine, who just want to get back a semblance of normality, they are stuck in limbo.

I don't want to end this waffle, on a sour note. So might sound daft, but if America and UN can't, or won't help, why not try to get China involved, as an honest broker. Putin has to respect them and they are itching to demonstrate, to the world, they are a rightful member of the permanent five. (I am not a Chinese agent)
 
It would seem more people of an opinion in E Ukraine; favour joining Russia, than staying with the Ukraine. But, a seeming silent majority, are undecided, would likely rather wish Russia, would just go away and are trapped between the two opposing forces. Was it ever thus, for the innocents trapped between two warring factions.

The Ukrainian Army must have picked up some doctrine and behavioural attitudes, from the old Soviet Army and lets face it, Russian military operations, were always brutal affairs. So I can accept the agitprop, that the Ukrainians aren't angels.

The Separatist Army will be an undisciplined rabble off duty and you wonder how many have been conscripted. A mixed bag and the same sort of rubbish, as the bosnian serbs were, when a more professional Croatian army swatted them out of the way (operation storm). So, the Russians can't leave, because the Ukrainian army, would likely roll in the day after.

It is an unresolvable conflict; Putin is the aggressor, but the Russians are simply too pig headed to shift as the constant agitprop demonstrates, they are in denial. The Ukraine can't back down, as its a sovereignty issue. For the MH-17 victims and the poor people of E Ukraine, who just want to get back a semblance of normality, they are stuck in limbo.

I don't want to end this waffle, on a sour note. So might sound daft, but if America and UN can't, or won't help, why not try to get China involved, as an honest broker. Putin has to respect them and they are itching to demonstrate, to the world, they are a rightful member of the permanent five. (I am not a Chinese agent)
I doubt China can act as an honest broker. Even if they were, they would use it as an opportunity to get leverage for their own national interest as well as being biased.
 
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I doubt China can act as an honest broker. Even if they were, they would use it as an opportunity to get leverage for their own national interest as well as being biased.
I doubt it too, but its the only thing I could think of, to break the deadlock.
 
I doubt it too, but its the only thing I could think of, to break the deadlock.
Do a search on Minsk 2 on the Global times site. I only got one hit and that was about a football match. Others may have a different view but its often accepted as a mouthpiece for the PRC govt.

Why you think the PRC would be interested in Minsk 2 let alone getting Russia to comply with it escapes me. An ongoing frozen conflict. The West's attention looking to Russia rather than China. Somewhere to sell more ordnance. A few more abstentions in the UNSC.....

What does Putin gain? What does Xi gain?
 
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Do a search on Minsk 2 on the Global times site. I only got one hit and that was about a football match. Others may have a different view but its often accepted as a mouthpiece for the PRC govt.

Why you think the PRC would be interested in Minsk 2 let alone getting Russia to comply with it escapes me. An ongoing frozen conflict. The West's attention looking to Russia rather than China. Somewhere to sell more ordnance. A few more abstentions in the UNSC.....

What does Putin gain? What does Xi gain?
It was just an idea, a frozen conflict will only end, when a third party steps in and either imposes peace, or convinces both parties to do a deal.

How does Putin benefit from an ongoing frozen conflict?, souring trade and poisoning the Russian economy. One would assume he is looking for an out, as he has shown his strength (his opinion, not mine), but needs to move on. Xi playing peacemaker isn't bad publicity for his domestic population and China has been expanding its operations with bases in Africa and ships in the Indian ocean, so would likely be amenable.

I don't think Putin would give a stuff about the fate of those who ordered the firing on MH-17, so its perfectly possible, person or persons responsible, could be handed over to China say. The Ukraine seems the wildcard, you and others seem to know more about there intentions and endgame, than an outsider like me.
 
It was just an idea, a frozen conflict will only end, when a third party steps in and either imposes peace, or convinces both parties to do a deal.
Both parties need to agree a deal. Both have signed up to Minsk 2. Both need to implement it.
How does Putin benefit from an ongoing frozen conflict?, souring trade and poisoning the Russian economy. One would assume he is looking for an out, as he has shown his strength (his opinion, not mine), but needs to move on.
If that’s a genuine question, off the top of my head:
Keeps Crimea out of the limelight
A war with a neighbour that can re-start at the drop of a hat. Denied again.
Influence over near abroad
Influence over ‘allies’
Upsets former Sov states
Top table politics
“Look how good we are, nudge nudge, wink wink”
Fighting the ‘Nazi’s’ and other rhetoric.
Xi playing peacemaker isn't bad publicity for his domestic population and China has been expanding its operations with bases in Africa and ships in the Indian ocean, so would likely be amenable.
It’s as if Xi hadn’t been voted Emperor for life and is already out there ‘sorting out N Korea’.
I don't think Putin would give a stuff about the fate of those who ordered the firing on MH-17, so its perfectly possible, person or persons responsible, could be handed over to China say. The Ukraine seems the wildcard, you and others seem to know more about there intentions and endgame, than an outsider like me.
Why? What does Putin gain? The only way it will be confirmed is if the FSB archives are opened if Putin has a ‘Winter Palace’ moment.
 
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Both parties need to agree a deal. Both have signed up to Minsk 2. Both need to implement it.

If that’s a genuine question, off the top of my head:
Keeps Crimea out of the limelight
A war with a neighbour that can re-start at the drop of a hat. Denied again.
Influence over near abroad
Influence over ‘allies’
Upsets former Sov states
Top table politics
“Look how good we are, nudge nudge, wink wink”
Fighting the ‘Nazi’s’ and other rhetoric.

It’s as if Xi hadn’t been voted Emperor for life and is already out there ‘sorting out N Korea’.

Why? What does Putin gain? The only way it will be confirmed is if the FSB archives are opened if Putin has a ‘Winter Palace’ moment.
Has any of those things off the top of your head brought any benefits to Russia ?, apart from an initial bounce inside the country. The economy looks pretty desperate to me, so I would expect he is getting a lot of grief to do a deal. However, Minsk 2, requires trust on both sides.

If certain elements in Russia are happy with the frozen conflict, one of the justifications for that hardline position is the Crimea, which is not covered in Minsk. We have crossed swords on it before, as I expressed a belief the Russian claim to the Crimea is historically stronger, than the Ukraine.

I accept the infringement of sovereignty argument and how it was taken over, but that isn't my problem and neither do I think it an issue for the united kingdom, unless the conflict expanded further westward. To get Minsk signed, it would seem Ukraine has to accept the loss of the crimea, that would strip away those elements in Russia who enjoy conflict and everyone can move on, with Ukraine recovering there lost eastern territory.
 
Has any of those things off the top of your head brought any benefits to Russia ?, apart from an initial bounce inside the country. The economy looks pretty desperate to me, so I would expect he is getting a lot of grief to do a deal. However, Minsk 2, requires trust on both sides.
That depends on what you mean by ‘benefits’ surely? By ‘benefits’ Putin was ‘elected’ again. Same people in his inner circle. He still hosts a major international sporting trophy. He and his cronies are still rich beyond most people’s wildest dreams. Russia is still P5. It still has allies. It still vetoes investigations into CW use by allies. It still behaves the same way if not more so. What more does he want?
If certain elements in Russia are happy with the frozen conflict, one of the justifications for that hardline position is the Crimea, which is not covered in Minsk. We have crossed swords on it before, as I expressed a belief the Russian claim to the Crimea is historically stronger, than the Ukraine.
They’d love the international community to recognise Crimea. They may even say they’d stop supporting the separatists to get this. However, as you mention above trust, would you trust the current leadership in this?
I accept the infringement of sovereignty argument and how it was taken over, but that isn't my problem and neither do I think it an issue for the united kingdom, unless the conflict expanded further westward.
No point in us being P5 and signing up to the UN Charter then.
To get Minsk signed, it would seem Ukraine has to accept the loss of the crimea, that would strip away those elements in Russia who enjoy conflict and everyone can move on, with Ukraine recovering there lost eastern territory.
Then you need to look at Transnystria and S Ossetia. It’s all part of the current govts game. I can’t recall many occasions when appeasement has worked personally. Can you?

They’re scared about those nations which have gone ‘West’ and those that look to the West. They don’t want to lose anymore and in fact want them back.
 
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That depends on what you mean by ‘benefits’ surely? By ‘benefits’ Putin was ‘elected’ again. Same people in his inner circle. He still hosts a major international sporting trophy. He and his cronies are still rich beyond most people’s wildest dreams. Russia is still P5. It still has allies. It still vetoes investigations into CW use by allies. It still behaves the same way if not more so. What more does he want?

They’d love the international community to recognise Crimea. They may even say they’d stop supporting the separatists to get this. However, as you mention above trust, would you trust the current leadership in this?

No point in us being P5 and signing up to the UN Charter then.

Then you need to look at Transnystria and S Ossetia. It’s all part of the current govts game. I can’t recall many occasions when appeasement has worked personally. Can you?

They’re scared about those nations which have gone ‘West’ and those that look to the West. They don’t want to lose anymore and in fact want them back.
We are different people, you are still an internationalist, I just see problems in our own country and want those sorted out first.

Appeasement is an emotive word, which only applies if Russia had greater designs on the Ukraine, which I assume not ??. On that principle, its up to Ukraine to make concessions, or recognition, however unfair that is.
 
We are different people, you are still an internationalist, I just see problems in our own country and want those sorted out first.
People can be both. I might want to sort out U.K. problems and to defend allies as it’s a big wide world out there.
Appeasement is an emotive word, which only applies if Russia had greater designs on the Ukraine, which I assume not ??.
Based on? Yanukovich, they’re happy as he’s in the ‘Russian sphere of influence’, that they agreed not to have. He does a runner and they nick Crimea and aid a separatist war in the east. If you’d read any of Sergey’s comments, you’ll know they’ll only be happy when Ukraine is back in the arms of the motherland irrespective of what the population want.

Appeasement is emotive. Of course. The Czechs didn’t like the word for obvious reasons
On that principle, its up to Ukraine to make concessions, or recognition, however unfair that is.
On the principle that ‘might is right’? Okay ...

It takes two people to tango. Neither are complying with Minsk 2. As Russia is the aggressor (nicking Crimea and aiding separatists) and as a P5 member, surely they should set an example?
 
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People can be both. I might want to sort out U.K. problems and to defend allies as it’s a big wide world out there.

Based on? Yanukovich, they’re happy as he’s in the ‘Russian sphere of influence’, that they agreed not to have. He does a runner and they nick Crimea and aid a separatist war in the east. If you’d read any of Sergey’s comments, you’ll know they’ll only be happy when Ukraine is back in the arms of the motherland irrespective of what the population want.

Appeasement is emotive. Of course. The Czechs didn’t like the word for obvious reasons

On the principle that ‘might is right’? Okay ...

It takes two people to tango. Neither are complying with Minsk 2. As Russia is the aggressor (nicking Crimea and aiding separatists) and as a P5 member, surely they should set an example?
Well Russia is kidding itself if the Ukraine ever falls under the Russia standard after recent events.
Might is right, just a fact of life.
I agree Russia should set an example, but when have they ever done so in the past.
 
Well Russia is kidding itself if the Ukraine ever falls under the Russia standard after recent events.
It doesn’t stop them trying, and painting the Ukraine govt as a Junta leading Nazi’s helps.
Might is right, just a fact of life.
I’m not saying it isn’t a fact of life. The point is appeasement.
I agree Russia should set an example, but when have they ever done so in the past.
So why should Ukraine be the one to bend over and take Russian sausage?
 
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It doesn’t stop them trying, and painting the Ukraine govt as a Junta leading Nazi’s helps.

I’m not saying it isn’t a fact of life. The point is appeasement.

So why should Ukraine be the one to bend over and take Russian sausage?
Don't we all try and paint an opponent as something less than human.

Appeasement it is, but its a gamble on Putin been a semi-stable known variable, the next fella might be ten times worse. So, on that view, the idea of leaving frozen conflicts for years is a dangerous business.

Bending a knee, its crap. But, the Ukraine doesn't look stable enough for a wider conflict. Get a deal, then fix there own internal problems, which they are struggling with and come back stronger.
 
Don't we all try and paint an opponent as something less than human.
Do we? I don’t recall it in recent times. IS are ISIL/S or whatever they are IS-K or Daesh.
Appeasement it is, but its a gamble on Putin been a semi-stable known variable, the next fella might be ten times worse. So, on that view, the idea of leaving frozen conflicts for years is a dangerous business.
What evidence is there that Putin would honour any agreement? After all, he hasnt’t since ‘14 and didnt respect their previous borders. Both sides need to abide by Minsk 2.
Bending a knee, its crap. But, the Ukraine doesn't look stable enough for a wider conflict. Get a deal, then fix there own internal problems, which they are struggling with and come back stronger.
They have a lot of problems and need to sort them out. It’s not helped by their neighbour supporting rebellion in regions let alone stealing parts of it.

I don’t believe you can bend the knee to the ‘Army of the Dead’ as one Russian poster calls themselves.
 
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Do we? I don’t recall it in recent times. IS are ISIL/S or whatever they are IS-K or Daesh.

What evidence is there that Putin would honour any agreement? After all, he hasnt’t since ‘14 and didnt respect their previous borders. Both sides need to abide by Minsk 2.

They have a lot of problems and need to sort them out. It’s not helped by their neighbour supporting rebellion in regions let alone stealing parts of it.

I don’t believe you can bend the knee to the ‘Army of the Dead’ as one Russian poster calls themselves.
What about the Libyan rebels, prior to the civil war, we had been supplying them support in the early nineties, then decided they were terrorists after the blair deal and even sent one back to be tortured.

I completely agree both sides abide by Minsk 2, but something needs to happen before that. Because, to back down would see him lose face and like I said, the next one might be worse than the present one. (regime change has shown itself to be a complete failure).

I agree its destabilising, maple probably knows more than me, but the Ukraine has a look of a country that needs time to heel wounds.

Army of the dead, oh come on that is just a bit of bravado. I remember, the cult of the Wehrmacht back in my BAOR days, or even modern day biker iconography.
 
What about the Libyan rebels, prior to the civil war, we had been supplying them support in the early nineties, then decided they were terrorists after the blair deal and even sent one back to be tortured.
Your point was we called them nasty words. Which nasty words did we call them?
I completely agree both sides abide by Minsk 2, but something needs to happen before that. Because, to back down would see him lose face and like I said, the next one might be worse than the present one. (regime change has shown itself to be a complete failure).
Could be worse, could be better, could be the same. Vlad has six more years.
I agree its destabilising, maple probably knows more than me, but the Ukraine has a look of a country that needs time to heel wounds.
Exactly, so they should stop supporting the rebels
Army of the dead, oh come on that is just a bit of bravado. I remember, the cult of the Wehrmacht back in my BAOR days, or even modern day biker iconography.
He said it, not me. I just laugh at the untrained chimp
 
If only some of our Soviet trolls would join the real Army of the Dead.



(On a serious note is that a reference to Napoléons Grand Armée?)
Sorry, no. Game of Thrones:
 
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