Mexico - Narco-state in the making?

From my reading, the narco gangs have scored a few high profile successes and are adept at picking off isolated cops and government functionaries but usually get the silver when federal forces arrive in strength.

I'd say it's more like a large version of South Armagh in the Troubles than an existential threat to the Mexican state.
I'm not sure what a "narco-state" would be in this instance. That Mexico is massively corrupt, there's no question. That it is incredibly violent, that is certain. That the crime gangs are involved in drug trafficking is obvious.

I wouldn't however conclude that all their problems are down strictly to drug traffickers. Mexico has a long history of violence and instability. They were ruled by a sham democracy in a one party state, although that is beginning to erode into something more closely resembling an actual democracy. I say "beginning to", because they have a long way to go. There were few complaints from the usual suspects about the state of democracy in Mexico as the Mexicans knew enough to stay within their prescribed limits in the American "Near Abroad".

If you're comparing it to South Armagh though, then I'm not sure that you really understand the flavour of it. Mexico had a murder rate of 25 per 100,000 in 2017. That makes them as dangerous as say, Washington DC. That's quite frightening, isn't it? And of course the drug gangs in Mexico sell their drugs on to the well armed drug gangs in the US, who then retail it to their buyers at a considerable mark-up.

I've been to Mexico on business. I wouldn't choose to go there for a vacation though. Crime is a problem, and the once relatively safe tourist towns are no longer so. Things might be better if you go on a package vacation that takes you straight from the airport to the resort and stay there until you return home.

My experience on business though has been that Mexico City is vast, surprisingly so if you aren't familiar with what to expect. The climate is quite mild due to the high altitude. However, the air was massively polluted when I was there. The sky was yellow and you could only see a limited distance in the persistent yellowish fog-like pollution. I'm sure there's some fantastic history and culture to be seen there, if only you could actually see anything.

The industrial cities are a bit less inspiring. The ones near the American border are appalling, the ones further from the border less so.

I spent some time in one paritcular mid sized industrial city. There were lots of nice new looking divided highways without much traffic on them, and spanking new factories and hotels oriented towards businessmen. There was money there, but not much seemed to trickle down to the average Mexican. Pretty much everything that was worth anything seemed to be owned by the Americans. This is perhaps the reason that the American government don't seem to get as worked up over democracy and human rights in Mexico as they do with elsewhere in the world.

The Mexicans that I met were quite friendly, cheerful, and pleasant. But then again these were factory workers and engineers, not gangsters. One engineer knew that we were Canadians and sidled over to me at one point to whisper quietly, asking if I was aware that the Americans had stolen half of their country. He was genuinely shocked when I told him that the Americans had tried the same with us and gotten a good shoeing for their pains, that being one of the advantages of being part of the British Empire at the time as opposed to a small independent republic. They haven't forgotten their history with the US.

Mexico is a country of 130 million people. That makes them half again larger than for example Turkey. Total nominal GDP is about $1.3 trillion, which puts them as the 15th largest economy in the world. If you measure it using PPP standards, which takes into account the cost of living, then they are number 11, ahead of Italy and within shouting distance of France (IMF estimates for 2019). Even if we just stick to nominal GDP though, they are still quite significant.

Economic growth is erratic. They will show a few years of good growth, followed by several years of stagnation. The potential is there, but the result is nothing compared to what has been seen in east Asia.

Mexico have a new president. He is a genuine change compared to what has come before. Whether or not that is a good thing remains to be seen, but he is promising to really shake things up. As I said before not much of what wealth there is seems to trickle down to the lower ranks of society, but he intends to change that.

This development is not necessarily welcomed in Washington. I won't be surprised to see the American political and political pundit class to develop a sudden deep concern for freedom and democracy in Mexico in reaction to this.
 
Never sleep early anyways, never before 2AM - even while home/ UK/ elsewhere - combined with jet lag, it's just worse.
So you're running on 3 hours sleep, given your 5:16am post on another thread. You need to seek medical advice.
 
If you're comparing it to South Armagh though, then I'm not sure that you really understand the flavour of it.
I wasn't attempting to compare the scope or scale of the violence, just to set it against an illustrative background that would be understood by a British audience who're ubderstandably appalled by its nature.
 
I wasn't attempting to compare the scope or scale of the violence, just to set it against an illustrative background that would be understood by a British audience who're ubderstandably appalled by its nature.
I was trying to put it into context in the rest of that paragraph when I said that the murder rate in Mexico is roughly the same as the murder rate in Washington DC, which by the way is far from the highest in the US. Perhaps I was being too subtle.

While the crime rate is appalling in European or Canadian terms, I think that calling Mexico a "narco-state" or a "nascent failed state" as some people are inclined is being a bit melodramatic when parts of the US are as bad or worse.

What the violence lacks in Mexico is any sort of political character. While it may be unpleasant, it doesn't directly threaten the stability of the state. It does upset the populace, but so far they haven't seen overthrowing the government as being any sort of solution.

The murder rates in Colombia or Brazil by the way are as high or higher and have been for many years. Much of Latin America and the Caribbean is quite violent. The anomalies in the Western Hemisphere fact are Canada and a couple of minor European colonial possessions, where the murder rates are more similar to those of Europe.

Here's a list that makes for interesting reading.
Aside from a few outliers like South Africa and a few other places in Africa, there isn't any place else on earth which is as violent as this region. If you look at the top 20 countries or territories in terms of murder rate, 18 are in Centra America, South America, and the Caribbean, and the remaining two are in Africa (South Africa and Lesotho). If you look at the total number of murders committed in the world, nearly two thirds of them are in the top 10 countries (Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Venezuela, United States, Russia, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo). Half of those are in the Western Hemisphere (Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, the US, Colombia).

But even within that set of data there are huge variations for no obvious reason. For example, the murder rate in Nicaragua, while high, isn't much higher than that of the US. The rates in neighbouring Guatamala, Honduras, and El Salvador though are multiple times higher and the highest in the world.

Mexico doesn't stand out as particularly unusual in the context of the region as a whole. If they were to be considered to be in danger of being unstable due to violence, then some other big countries such as Brazil and Colombia are just as bad or worse, and that's before you get to the smaller countries in between and in the Caribbean where the problem is several times worse.
 
That assumes he has actually made it to Oz.
Well he did say he was in Sydney, so perhaps he's a friend of Dorothy and is hanging out in Oz
 
That assumes he has actually made it to Oz.
If you look on the main thread, https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/site-sperm-gargling-permasending-colonial-fuckwit-of-the-year-2019.296606/ I think you'll find enough skepticism on my part as to whether it's left its Tower Hamlets bedsit or not.

Well he did say he was in Sydney, so perhaps he's a friend of Dorothy and is hanging out in Oz
I wonder which one though?

Sydney Road, London N10

Sydney Road, London W13

Sydney Road, London SW20
 
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I was trying to put it into context in the rest of that paragraph when I said that the murder rate in Mexico is roughly the same as the murder rate in Washington DC, which by the way is far from the highest in the US. Perhaps I was being too subtle.

While the crime rate is appalling in European or Canadian terms, I think that calling Mexico a "narco-state" or a "nascent failed state" as some people are inclined is being a bit melodramatic when parts of the US are as bad or worse.

What the violence lacks in Mexico is any sort of political character. While it may be unpleasant, it doesn't directly threaten the stability of the state. It does upset the populace, but so far they haven't seen overthrowing the government as being any sort of solution.

The murder rates in Colombia or Brazil by the way are as high or higher and have been for many years. Much of Latin America and the Caribbean is quite violent. The anomalies in the Western Hemisphere fact are Canada and a couple of minor European colonial possessions, where the murder rates are more similar to those of Europe.

Here's a list that makes for interesting reading.
Aside from a few outliers like South Africa and a few other places in Africa, there isn't any place else on earth which is as violent as this region. If you look at the top 20 countries or territories in terms of murder rate, 18 are in Centra America, South America, and the Caribbean, and the remaining two are in Africa (South Africa and Lesotho). If you look at the total number of murders committed in the world, nearly two thirds of them are in the top 10 countries (Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Venezuela, United States, Russia, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo). Half of those are in the Western Hemisphere (Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, the US, Colombia).

But even within that set of data there are huge variations for no obvious reason. For example, the murder rate in Nicaragua, while high, isn't much higher than that of the US. The rates in neighbouring Guatamala, Honduras, and El Salvador though are multiple times higher and the highest in the world.

Mexico doesn't stand out as particularly unusual in the context of the region as a whole. If they were to be considered to be in danger of being unstable due to violence, then some other big countries such as Brazil and Colombia are just as bad or worse, and that's before you get to the smaller countries in between and in the Caribbean where the problem is several times worse.
Except professor, Mexico is a nation of 128 million people. DC has a population of about 712,000.


The Mexican Government is unable to maintain control of their own country. The Cartels are getting a bit bold and if left unchecked the odds of covert or outright overt American intervention grow. Nobody cares about “Democracy” in Mexico. We just want the Mexicans and Central Americans to stay on their side of the border.

But also to edit and clarify, America never stole half of their country. We took it by force of arms, which as you know means it becomes ours by default.

Let me help you.


 
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Mexico, so much poverty, yet the worlds richest man, Carlos Slim, $60Billion, is a mexican
 
When USA entered WW1 was not the bulk of the small, standing US Army, deployed on or over the Mexican boarder because of banditery and political chaos in Mexico? To the extent they had difficulty in finding one Inf Div to send to France to start with?
 
Always fancied a trip too Mexico. Now on the back burner and not only because of its rising violence.
So alternatives, what about Costa Rica? My niece is traveling there in the spring. Classic scandanavian, Tall, blonde hair, blue eyes. Do I have a right to be worried?

p.s No I do not have photos or would I even consider posting photos of her. Bunch of perverts!!

SK
 
Go through a VPN and you can find the local video nasty Narco sites showing the loveliness that is Mexico's drug war…

The 'cookout' videos require very strong stomachs
 
Wasn't General Patton a junior officer during the campaign? I seem to remember reading his account of a charge and expected a bullet through the bridge of his nose any second. He said after that he never felt afraid.


Patton was a freaking baller...
 
Wasn't General Patton a junior officer during the campaign? I seem to remember reading his account of a charge and expected a bullet through the bridge of his nose any second. He said after that he never felt afraid.
Commander was Brig Gen Pershing legendary 'Black Jack' later US Army Commander in France and CoS US Army after WW1.
 
The famous 'Rainbow Division' was made up from National Guard soldiers from all over the Union which shows the acute shortage of trained men at the time.
It was not until after WW2 that America had a larger permanent professional standing Army. We had the ability to mobilize large forces in what amounted to a quick amount of time. But deploying a force of significant size was not something we were up to at at the time. Now however with the speed of conflicts, no country is going to have 8-12 months to mobilize and start generating units on a rapid pace. It takes the US Army about 2.5 years to stand up a Brigade from scratch at this point in time. If it were a dire national emergency we might be able to shave that to 18-19 months, but that is still a long time.
 
I know there have been various threads in various forums previously, but the levels of violence and willingness to take on the authorities seems to be getting worse and worse.

'Mexican state police clashed Saturday with a group of heavily armed gang members in the northern town of Villa Union, about 65 kilometers (40 miles) from the US border, local authorities said. Four officers died and six were wounded in the hour-long confrontation in the state of Coahuila. At least 10 of the shooters were killed, Coahuila Governor Miguel Angel Riquelme said.

'The group reportedly entered the town of 3,000 inhabitants in a convoy of pickup trucks before storming local government buildings at around midday. Speaking outside the bullet-ridden town mayor's office, Governor Riquelme told reporters the state had acted "decisively" to repel the gunmen. He said they were members of the Cartel of the Northeast, which is from the neighboring state of Tamaulipas. A number of municipal workers were missing, he added.'










It's been a threat since I can remember, what with Colombia and Farc, Nicaragua and Panama. I for one never consider these countries States of any note but as ever one can count on the UN not to deal with areas that are too difficult. I always loved my run ins with astrakhan collared denizens of the intelligencia of Venezuela and the like and their links to art fraud in Spain. Classic
 

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