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MERS Coronavirus warning

Sweden's still not into excess deaths:


Again, Michael Levitt is a great example of how you can be accomplished in one field and then be a total fúcking retard about everything else.

1607036462157.png
 
Sweden's still in the normal range in your graph, well well below 'substantial increase' and well in the margins of the normal range.

Hasn't anyone told them there's a deadly pandemic on the go?
See the other graphs for why (especially the last one - orange = excess mortality), or is that too complicated for you?

Michael levitt has been continuously wrong throughout the pandemic. He's a complete fúckwit.
 
See the other graphs for why (especially the last one - orange = excess mortality), or is that too complicated for you?

Michael levitt has been continuously wrong throughout the pandemic. He's a complete fúckwit.

Yes, the Nobel prize winning scientist is a 'complete fuckwit' says the bloke from the internet called 'Nick Dipples'.

Spot on.

I can also see the graph that YOU provided and state some facts about it:

1. Deaths in Sweden are now in well within the normal range, like no-one knows there's a deadly pandemic going on.

2. Deaths are really well below the 'substantial increase'.


5.jpg
5a.jpg
 
That graph demonstrates the level of excess deaths in early 2020 is way higher than in surrounding countries.
The second graph shows that the current number of deaths is both underreported and approaching the early 2020 figure.
The 3rd graph shows that even with the underrporting there are excess deaths.

I apologise for expecting you to link multiple thoughts together unaided.
 
That graph demonstrates the level of excess deaths in early 2020 is way higher than in surrounding countries.
The second graph shows that the current number of deaths is both underreported and approaching the early 2020 figure.
The 3rd graph shows that even with the underrporting there are excess deaths.

I apologise for expecting you to link multiple thoughts together unaided.

We all know what happened in early 2020, mucka, and the current excess deaths - even with the under reporting - are still in the normal range and very much under the substantial increase line.

I'll make a note in my google diary and revisit in two weeks to see how it turns out.
 
Here's the COVID-19 summary for Thursday.
Coronavirus: What's happening in Canada around the world on Dec. 3

Infections hit a new high in Russia, with 28,145 cases on Thursday.
Coronavirus infections in Russia have hit a new record, as the country's authorities reported 28,145 new confirmed cases — the highest daily spike in the pandemic and an increase of 2,800 cases from those registered the previous day.

In Japan, the city of Osaka is telling residents to stay home as much as possible due to rising infections and hospitalisations. Osaka reported 386 new cases, and hospitals are becoming overcrowded.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the Japanese city of Osaka is urging residents to stay home as much as possible until mid-December because of a resurgence of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations. Osaka reported 386 new cases Thursday, and with overcrowding hospitals, some patients were sent to neighbouring areas for treatment.

Cases have been expanding rapidly across the country, including the Tokyo region, Aichi in central Japan and Hokkaido in the north.

South Africa are increasing restrictions in Eastern Cape, limiting indoor gatherings, extending the curfew, and prohibiting public consumption of alcohol (it's not clear what is covered in the last item).
South Africa on Thursday tightened some COVID-19 rules in the Eastern Cape province where infections are rising the most, curbing movement and gatherings, but decided against reinstating a nationwide lockdown.

In a televised address President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an enhanced curfew in the eastern Nelson Mandela Bay area, while indoor gatherings would be limited to 100 people and alcohol consumption in public is prohibited.

Iran have passed 1 million total cases, and saw 13,922 new cases on Thursday. They also had 358 new deaths, with the total to date being 49,348.
Iran, the hardest-hit nation in the Middle East, passed one million total COVID-19 cases on Thursday with 13,922 new cases recorded in the past 24 hours, the health ministry said.

Ministry spokesperson Sima Sadat Lari told state TV that 358 people had died from the coronavirus since Wednesday, bringing the death toll to 49,348.
 
Pfizer have cut their vaccine production target for December in half due to shortages of raw materials. They are now expecting to be able to produce 50 million doses. This will be enough to vaccinate 25 million people.
Lack of raw materials blamed for slashed supply target of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine

A lack of raw materials used in the manufacture of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine played a role in the company's decision to slash its 2020 production target, a spokeswoman told Reuters.

Pfizer has said in recent weeks that it anticipates producing 50 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine this year. That is down from an earlier target of 100 million doses. Pfizer's vaccine relies on a two-dose regimen, meaning 50 million doses is enough to inoculate 25 million people.
 
Pfizer have cut their vaccine production target for December in half due to shortages of raw materials. They are now expecting to be able to produce 50 million doses. This will be enough to vaccinate 25 million people.
Lack of raw materials blamed for slashed supply target of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine
Which of the ingredients are they short of? The recipe:
Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt and toe of frog,
Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg and howlet's wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
 
Which of the ingredients are they short of? The recipe:
Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt and toe of frog,
Wool of bat and tongue of dog,
Adder's fork and blind-worm's sting,
Lizard's leg and howlet's wing,
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.

I would suggest leaving out the bat.
 
They charge for flu jabs

They do in Britain as well.

I was in the doctors/chemist last week and the chemist was offering flu vaccinations. £60 for Joe Public and £30 for pensioners.

Being a pensioner and having just had a free flu vaccination (and a free pneumonia one) I passed on the offer.
 

exsniffer

Old-Salt
I saw this on the Long Rider blog and thought it worth posting on. David Warburton q Tory MP has set out his reasons for voting against the 3 tier system of controls, It s a fairly wrong read but he makes some interesting (IMHO) points particularly comparing deaths caused by the restrictions as compared with deaths caused by Covid. The comments about the restrictions setting a dangerous precedent for removing our civil liberties is particularly worrying.

I have seven key reservations which I outline below – and led me to vote against the tier system. For the sake of clarity I’ve outlined them below in bullet-point form:

1, First, the regulations fail in their essentials. For government regulations to work (which can only be achieved through public consent), they must be clear, and underpinned by cohesive internal logic. But the rules that have been proposed are contradictory and, in many cases, seem almost arbitrary. From last orders at 10pm but 11pm closing (do we all order four rounds at 10pm, or do venues have to pay staff for an hour with no takings?), to the vaguely defined ‘substantial meal’. From allowing soft drinks all day but alcohol only with food, to an astonishingly labyrinthine and impossibly convoluted ‘bubble’ system, with no obvious sense of cause and effect. From work meetings being allowed in public or private places (only for self-employed), to no one allowed to meet from separate households either outdoors or indoors, unless they’re on a train or travelling.

2, I have been asking (both publicly on social media and in private conversations with Ministers) for the data – a cost benefit analysis – which informed the decisions around the Tier system. Apparently the Cabinet Office had been putting this together all weekend for us, which sadly suggests that the data was not the basis for the proposed rules. The crucial question we have to ask ourselves is what is the cost to lives, to livelihoods, to businesses, to mental health, suicides, to all non-Covid related heath and – of course – the future of the economy of the restrictions, against the likely lives saved from those same restrictions.

The ONS have calculated that there will be / will have been 200,000 excess non-Covid deaths caused by the restrictions. This is nearly four times the number of presumed Covid deaths. Bristol University put the figure at 560,000. While I don’t suggest these figures are anything other than an estimate (given the circumstances and fast-moving picture), they should nonetheless give us pause to question the wisdom of continuing a course of action that has produced them.

3, The regional basis for the tiering is problematic. The apparent incidence of Covid-19 is inflated in areas (like our own) that are affected by nearby towns or cities. And many, having had lockdown for a month, find themselves moving into stricter restrictions than were imposed before lockdown. This would seem to imply that lockdown was ineffective. Which itself would imply that the stricter Tier system will also be ineffective. Figures show that the previous Tiered system was having an effect on infections, whereas lockdown did not have a proportionately greater effect. So why will 99% of country continue under effective lockdown?

There is also a clear implication that the Tiers will continue until Easter. This will be devastating to lives and businesses in our area – while costing all of us, and future generations, almost £1 billion a day. It’s imperative that businesses are allowed to open – including those in the hospitality and tourism sector which contribute so much to the economy of the West Country. The restrictions have gone a long way towards the destruction of hospitality and tourism (and much else) in the West Country.

4, The NHS pressure argument is dubious. We have seven unused Nightingale hospitals in England (more in the other countries of the union). The excess deaths are barely above the annual average, and there is capacity even in regular hospitals. But even if the NHS does suffer pressure ,this is not unprecedented – and has been the case every winter for year upon year under successive governments of both main parties. But this has never before been regarded as a reason to make it illegal for people to be allowed to take risks with their health.

5, The data showing massive increases in infections/deaths has been shown to be dubious at almost every turn. For the under 60s, there is a 1 in 300,000 chance of death. For the over 60s, there is a 99% survival rate. For the over 80s, it’s still 90%.

6, There is an alternative to hand – based on individual responsibility that we exercise in our own lives anyway. We should allow the vulnerable to isolate and protect themselves, as with any other virus – no-one suffering from ‘flu goes to visit and then embrace elderly relatives.

7, I have very real anxieties about the precedent that’s being set here: of the state arrogating itself the power to impose such stringent measures on its population when the data upon which this is based is chancy and uncertain. Liberty is like innocence, easy to remove and extremely difficult to regain. And a future government with less benign intentions could easily use this precedent to interfere further – and for malign motives.

So, given the economic, social, health, livelihood, business, mental health costs, the unemployment, insolvencies – each of which is a personal tragedy – I could not, in good conscience, vote to compromise lives and destroy livelihoods. I recognise the pressures under which the Government is operating, and applaud many of the mitigation measures that have been implemented thus far. But I felt impelled to vote against a system which poses such an economic and social threat to our part of Somerset.

I do hope this explains my reasoning for my vote last night and my sincere thanks again for getting in touch.

All good wishes,

David

David Warburton MP
 

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