MERS Coronavirus warning

Pretty hellish keeping three and a half thousand people prisoner on a plague ship and watching the internal ventilation system slowly spread the the virus round the cabins. Suppose it keeps it off sacred Japanese soil. No wonder the Yanks got their finger out.
1) Is that actually happening with ventilation?
2) Several people have been taken ashore.
 

Niamac

GCM
1) Is that actually happening with ventilation?
2) Several people have been taken ashore.
Don't know for sure but a proportion of the cabins are inside i.e. no natural ventilation and those taken ashore seem to be those with confirmed disease. If every time there's a new case they reset the 14 day clock it is not going to end well. Edit. There is a fixed end date - 19th February. Still 10% infection rate not good. What happens when they come off - fly home? Another 14 days quarantine at home?
 
Last edited:
1) Is that actually happening with ventilation?
2) Several people have been taken ashore.
Canadians on the cruise ship who are not showing symptoms are being flown home in an evacuation flight being arranged by the Canadian government. Those with coronavirus will be transferred to the Japanese healthcare system.
Federal government to bring home Canadians on board quarantined cruise ship
The Canadian government said Saturday it was sending a chartered plane to repatriate the Canadians stuck on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which has been quarantined in Japan due to coronavirus.

"This decision was taken because of the extraordinary circumstances faced by passengers on the Diamond Princess, and to lighten the burden on the Japanese health care system," said a joint statement from Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Health Minister Patty Hajdu and Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan. "We are working closely with Carnival Cruise lines and the government of Japan to assist in this evacuation."
Those with no symptoms will be flown to CFB Trenton to be assessed, and then they will be sent to a NAV Canada training centre in Cornwall (which is east of CFB Trenton) for 14 days of quarantine. There are about 250 Canadians who were on the ship.
Canadians who are not showing symptoms of COVID-19 infection will be flown from Japan to Canadian Forces Base Trenton, in Ontario, after which they will be assessed and transported to the NAV Canada Training Institute in Cornwall, Ontario, to undergo a further 14-day period of quarantine.
Canadians who were in Wuhan have already been flown back to Canada and are in quarantine at CFB Trenton.
 

PFGEN

GCM
Pretty hellish keeping three and a half thousand people prisoner on a plague ship and watching the internal ventilation system slowly spread the the virus round the cabins. Suppose it keeps it off sacred Japanese soil. No wonder the Yanks got their finger out.
May not be nice for those on board but it's the only control experiment the rest of the world has to see if the Chinese numbers add up or have they been telling us all a load of porkies. Something that has been suspected by many for some time now and I don't mean the tin foil brigade but the likes of the CDC and WHO. Sacrifice for the greater good etc etc.
 
Can't blame her entirely. If she fits the criteria and has felt the need to call why can they not task an ambulance? Are we just sending whichever John Q Paramedic who is at the front of the rank to them? Are they suitably equipped as routine?
If it was a life threatening scenario like a heart attack or something similar, the ambulance will be with the victim in most instances within several minutes in this manor.

Non life threatening emergencies can take longer up to several hours depending on ambulance availability.

Last year, my brother who was staying with us at the time had a life threatening emergency where a long term problem he suffers from caused the muscles in his lungs to collapse. The ambulance took thirteen minutes to arrive. The telephone responder couldn’t apologise enough as she advised me that the crew were blue lighting to us but they were some distance away. She stopped on the phone giving advice and continuously updating us on the ambulance progress until it arrived. My brother after several weeks in hospital come through it all ok and has been in reasonable health since.

At the beginning of this year on January 7th, They sent an ambulance out to me. I had been suffering from severe arthritis particularly in my legs and had been confined to my bed since seven days before Christmas. I was entirely immobile and it was decided to take me in for some more tests and stuff. The difference between me and my brother was that I wasn’t a life threatening emergency victim and the ambulance turned up about two hours later to get me into hospital care.

Those two examples of my brother and myself are both good examples of getting the job done according to the needs of the patient. My brother was at deaths door and they got him there as quickly as they could at the time. I could have laid in bed for another day or two frankly and my arthritis wasn’t going to kill me.

I’m guessing here but the newspaper reported a conversation between this woman and the health authorities. I expect they would have offered to send an ambulance out to her. They wouldn’t have blue lighted it though because she wasn’t in imminent danger of collapsing and dying from a heart attack etc. They would have said to her, wait where you are at home or wherever and we’ll send an ambulance to you. It will be with you any time in the next two or three hours.

So I guessing that once the woman found out she was not going to be immediately blue lighted as an emergency victim to the hospital, she probably decided that as far as she was concerned, it was her health at stake here so bugger keeping her germs to herself, a Uber would just have to do instead.

The offer of a ride according to ambulance transport policy simply wasn’t quick enough, and therefore good enough, for her!
 
Last edited:
In view of the headlines this morning about millions to stay at home if it spreads in the Uk, I wonder when the panic buying will start.........
I have just over a months worth of stuff at home at all times. A habit started in Florida with the threat of hurricanes and continued in Texarrse with the threat of tornadoes ............ and having seen the crap flash to bang time that FEMA has when faced with a problem.

Buying tips based on what I learnt on the county emergency group and have picked up on the way in the US:

Basic stockpile should be covered by flour, sugar, rice, pasta, powdered milk.

Add to that with tinned meat, veggies and fruit.

Don't forget bogroll, salt, pepper, tampons, a means to filter water, means to store water, a couple of propane bottles if you have a camping stove, and a shovel to potentially prepare a shovel recce location at the bottom of the garden - services are operated by humans and if they don't go to work then things like water, sewage and electric may only work sporadically. Sewage and water was always a bit of a problem in Florida after a hurricane due to staff absence; I never had to dig a pit, but it was nice to know I could easily go dig a hole next to the Tee for the 9th hole at the bottom of my garden.

Importantly if you are on any med's make sure you have a couple or three months worth safely put away in a drawer.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Pretty hellish keeping three and a half thousand people prisoner on a plague ship and watching the internal ventilation system slowly spread the the virus round the cabins. Suppose it keeps it off sacred Japanese soil. No wonder the Yanks got their finger out.
14 of the US passengers who have been evac'd from the ship have now tested positive for the virus. Doubling the number of reported U.S cases.

New York Times Report here: Coronavirus Updates: Evacuated Americans Carried Virus From Cruise Ship to Airplane

Fourteen Americans who were evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan on Monday were placed in segregated areas of a chartered flight after they were found to have the new coronavirus shortly before boarding the plane to the United States, American officials said.

The passengers were among more than 300 Americans aboard a cruise ship that was been quarantined in Yokohama for more than 10 days. United States officials initially said they would not allow infected people to board the evacuation flights, but appeared to reverse that decision early Monday.


In other news - from this morning's Economist Int Unit briefing: ( covered here https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/covid-19.298353/post-9839173 )

During the Ebola epidemic of 2014, Japan offered to WHO to supply favipiravir when needed. [7] On October 4, 2014 French nurse who was MSF treated with favipiravir and survived an infection with Ebola virus, which they had contracted in Liberia. [8]

The World Health Organization wrote in a statement that it was ethically acceptable in the course of the Ebola fever epidemic 2014 to use preventive or therapeutic medication without proof of its effectiveness in humans, if promising results could be shown in animal experiments. [9]

In February 2020, favipiravir was tested in China in a first randomized study as an antiviral therapy against the coronavirus COVID-19 . [10] Favipiravir received short-term approval on February 16, 2020 as an effective antiviral against COVID-19 for five years. It is now being produced in China under the name Favilavir.
[11]

So, in summary - an untested drug, approved by WHO for emergency use against Ebola, is being produced (and administered) on COVID-19 cases in Wuhan.

The China Daily piece ( noting the source, as yet unconfirmed by Reuters/AFP or BBC)


Earlier backgrounder from BBC Business reporter here:

 
Last edited:

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
People are picking up on what I said a few days ago regarding shipping and whatnot...


Which will have some very real effects worldwide, and also pose some interesting questions regardless of the viruses continued spread..

Likely it will bring the extent of 'gloabilisation' to the masses, and the shortfalls of such. If you can't get a pair of sunglasses cos they're made in China then ho hum... If you have to delay buying a new car because even a small percentage of the parts are made there then, that's a bit of a nuisance. If your local container port's Chinese built crane breaks down and disrupts everything leading to real world losses then questions will be asked.

For instance Chinese car production dropped by 20% in January... Even though the quarantine only began in the last week of that month.

If they can get in under control relatively quickly then it might just be a blip. if it drags on for weeks or months then highly endebted companies are going to start shutting their plants across the world. Bear in mind though that it is only relatively recently that the majority of the reported 700 million people have been on lockdown. Also that this could well impact upon the continuuing Eurozone crisis, many banks have been creaking for so long that is seems like the new normal... Their loans stop coming in and bad things happen.

Even the companies which have some financial leeway are going to face the choice of decoupling from China as a strategic choice. Viruses tend to reappear seasonally so this isn't merely a short term consideration..

Same too for countries which are dependant upon Chinese based infrastructure... Say they built a railroad with Chow Mein Inc locomotives between Bongobongoland and Bumfuctistan to replace the camels that traditionally plied the trade route.

Those camels then merely become leisure centres, and are probably all dead of VD... Trouble is your Chinese train just conked out for want of a spare anorak widget and the factory making them isn't going back to work any time soon.

Do you diversify away or just hope that people don't starve in between enjoying the camels?
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Interesting study from pre-Wuhan days from John Hopkins...


GCBRs are defined as “those events in which biological agents—whether naturally emerging or reemerging, deliberately created and released, or laboratory engineered and escaped—could lead to sudden, extraordinary, widespread disaster beyond the collective capability of national and international governments and the private sector to control. If unchecked, GCBRs would lead to great suffering, loss of life, and sustained damage to national governments, international relationships, economies, societal stability, or global security.”
All of the focus has been on the CRN foctors of CBRN, yet various intel agencies have been warning of the risk from biological weapons for some time now, particularly as they are potentially deniable.


There are several characteristics likely to be common to GCBR-level pandemic pathogens. Irrespective of the biological class of a pathogen, several attributes are likely to be essential components of any GCBR-level pathogen. These traits include efficient humanto-human transmissibility, an appreciable case fatality rate, the absence of an effective or widely available medical countermeasure, an immunologically naïve population, virulence factors enabling immune system evasion, and respiratory mode of spread. Additionally, the ability to transmit during incubation periods and/or the occurrence of mild illnesses would further augment spread

Hence if it is naturally occuring it, by chance, has all of the characteristics of an effective bioweapon.
 
I have just over a months worth of stuff at home at all times. A habit started in Florida with the threat of hurricanes and continued in Texarrse with the threat of tornadoes ............ and having seen the crap flash to bang time that FEMA has when faced with a problem.

Buying tips based on what I learnt on the county emergency group and have picked up on the way in the US:

Basic stockpile should be covered by flour, sugar, rice, pasta, powdered milk.

Add to that with tinned meat, veggies and fruit.

Don't forget bogroll, salt, pepper, tampons, a means to filter water, means to store water, a couple of propane bottles if you have a camping stove, and a shovel to potentially prepare a shovel recce location at the bottom of the garden - services are operated by humans and if they don't go to work then things like water, sewage and electric may only work sporadically. Sewage and water was always a bit of a problem in Florida after a hurricane due to staff absence; I never had to dig a pit, but it was nice to know I could easily go dig a hole next to the Tee for the 9th hole at the bottom of my garden.

Importantly if you are on any med's make sure you have a couple or three months worth safely put away in a drawer.
Sounds sensible to me but like you I've been through the after effects of a few hurricanes in Florida and tornadoes and ice storms in Indiana.

Back in England and keep a good stock of food and ready with containers for water etc

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk
 
(...) For instance Chinese car production dropped by 20% in January... Even though the quarantine only began in the last week of that month. (...)
Chinese New Year was in January. It's the biggest holiday of the year in China and many other parts of east Asia. Pretty much everything shuts down as the workers go home to wherever it is they came from to spend the time with their families. This happens every year.

This year the holiday was extended due to the coronavirus outbreak, in an attempt to try to contain it.

I was earlier reading about how Samsung's factories in Vietnam were running into problems because they depend on parts from suppliers in China. Samsung has huge operations in Vietnam, because labour is cheaper there than in China. However, many of them are simply assembling parts that are made in China. There were reportedly similar problems in India.
 

Flight

LE
Book Reviewer
Chinese New Year was in January. It's the biggest holiday of the year in China and many other parts of east Asia. Pretty much everything shuts down as the workers go home to wherever it is they came from to spend the time with their families. This happens every year.
20% down on last January's figures...

Actually more than that but can't find the graph I was looking at...

The February figures thus far had flatlined... I'll see if Ican find it...
 
I’m guessing here but the newspaper reported a conversation between this woman and the health authorities. I expect they would have offered to send an ambulance out to her. They wouldn’t have blue lighted it though because she wasn’t in imminent danger of collapsing and dying from a heart attack etc. They would have said to her, wait where you are at home or wherever and we’ll send an ambulance to you. It will be with you any time in the next two or three hours.

So I guessing that once the woman found out she was not going to be immediately blue lighted as an emergency victim to the hospital, she probably decided that as far as she was concerned, it was her health at stake here so bugger keeping her germs to herself, a Uber would just have to do instead.

The offer of a ride according to ambulance transport policy simply wasn’t quick enough, and therefore good enough, for her!
I would agree with you except any of the accounts I have read seem to suggest that this was not the case.
 
"
Like many other American staples and luxuries, L.O.L. Surprise! dolls are made in China. Chatsworth-based MGA Entertainment has them manufactured in Guangdong province, trucked to the port in Yantian Harbor, loaded on ships and brought to the United States, where the popular toys are distributed to retailers and scooped up by eager children. The process went smoothly for years.

Then the coronavirus outbreak hit, and the supply chain stuttered.

The situation is “a disaster, frankly,” MGA Chief Executive Isaac Larian said. Production of his company’s toys has dropped 60% compared with this period last year. To get by, he said, he is filling only partial toy orders — “if a retailer wants 100,000 pieces, we’re giving them 15,000 or 20,000.”

Businesses of all stripes in California and nationwide are feeling pain from the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed 1,775 people and infected more than 71,300 others worldwide, mostly in China.


Activity at Chinese factories has slowed or stopped. Fewer cargo ships from China are docking at Southern California ports. Chinese visitors’ spending in Los Angeles could plunge nearly $1 billion this year.

U.S. shoppers might start seeing items missing from store shelves as early as mid-April, analyst Edward J. Kelly of Wells Fargo Securities said in a note to clients last week. Big-box retailers such as Walmart and Target “could be the first to experience out-of-stock issues” because they restock more quickly, he wrote.

Should the epidemic be quickly contained, the overall effect on California’s economy will be short-term with minimal job losses, said Lynn Reaser, chief economist of the Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University.

“Most of the damage will be toward the bottom lines of these companies,” Reaser said. “There’s therefore no need to implement long-term layoffs of the types of employees involved in California.”



Still, she said California’s technology firms may probably see a drop in sales and profits, especially those dependent on parts coming from China and those reliant on the sale of goods and services to China.

Larian, however, fears the virus could “cause a major downturn on the whole consumer-goods business — electronics, shoes, apparel.”

The timing of the outbreak was key because workers at Chinese plants had returned to their hometowns for two weeks to celebrate the Lunar New Year on Jan. 25, and “now they’re stuck, they cannot come back to the factories” because of quarantines, Larian said.

“Some of the factories that did open can’t get raw materials, like fabric and plastics, to make the products. And if they can make products, they can’t get them on the road to the ships because the quarantines mean you can’t travel from one area to another,” he said.

Rival toymaker Mattel Inc. in El Segundo also cited that problem Friday in announcing that its Chinese factories and those of its contract partners, which were supposed to restart production Feb. 3, would stay shut until Monday.

“We do expect production delays,” Mattel Chief Financial Officer Joseph Euteneuer said on a call with analysts. “While none of our manufacturing is located in the Wuhan province” where the coronavirus outbreak started, “the ability of the manufacturing workforce to return to work after the Lunar New Year holiday is being impacted.”

One of those workers is Li Jianchao, who works in a factory that makes stuffed animals and dolls in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan but traveled to the Jiangxi province in central China, 500 miles away, for the holiday. For the last few weeks, he’s had no luck contacting his boss about returning to work.

“At first, he said he would get back to us when he knew he could resume the operation,” Li said. “Then he stopped taking anyone’s phone calls.”


It’s a problem felt across industries. Apple Inc.'s manufacturing partners, such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., also known as Foxconn, imposed quarantines on workers returning from the holiday this month, causing a halt in device assembly operations.

“We see that the number [of virus cases] don’t seem to be ebbing,” said Gerrit Schneemann, senior smartphone analyst at the research firm IHS Markit. “It feels like this will continue on at least for a couple more weeks.”

The delays “will be a shock to the system and disrupt the supply chain further for Apple on both its core iPhone franchise and AirPods unit production, which is already facing a short supply,” analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said in a recent note.

Apple confirmed those concerns Monday when it warned investors it would miss its revenue guidance for the first quarter. The company blamed the shortfall on a shortage of iPhones caused by production bottlenecks in China and on lower demand within the country.

China makes 80% of the world’s smartphones and tablets and it exports 55% of the world’s handsets and computers, according to research from the Swiss bank UBS.

Earlier this month Facebook Inc. stopped taking new orders for its back-ordered Oculus Quest virtual reality headset due to delays in hardware production from the viral outbreak.

Amazon.com urged Chinese third-party sellers on its Marketplace section to alert buyers of the likely disruption of orders and to consider setting their status to vacation mode to avoid incurring poor customer ratings, according to messages to sellers viewed by The Times.

Qualcomm Inc., the San Diego-based chip manufacturing giant, warned shareholders on an earnings call that the virus had introduced “significant uncertainty” into the company’s overseas supply chain, with Chief Executive Steve Mollenkopf calling the outbreak an “unprecedented situation.”


Chui Yin Chau, a virtual and augmented reality industry analyst with Greenlight Insights, said there was no clear end in sight to the turmoil.

“When we talk to manufacturers, they cannot give an estimate” of when they might be able to return to full production capacity, Chau said. “Most of them are starting to resume production this week, but it still depends on many, many external factors, so they cannot guarantee anything.”

The effect on supply chains extends to the Port of Los Angeles — along with the dockworkers, truck drivers and the vast warehouse and distribution network that rely on it — all of which already had been disrupted in recent months by the U.S.-China trade war, said Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director.

He estimated that overall, there would be 80 fewer sailings of ships from China to the United States, and 350,000 fewer shipping containers received, in the coming weeks. The number of cargo containers received at the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach would drop by one-fifth.

The virus also means fewer Chinese people are visiting Southern California. Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, forecasts a loss of up to 325,000 Chinese visitors to Los Angeles this year owing to the outbreak, resulting in a drop of $921 million in direct spending. But overall visitor spending in L.A. is still expected to rise.

More than 100,000 people were scheduled to converge on Barcelona, Spain, next week for the world’s largest phone show, Mobile World Congress, but that event was canceled Wednesday due to the virus.

David Schwartz, a gaming historian and history professor at University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on Las Vegas is still unclear and that a better read will come in March when detailed data on gambling spending for January and February will be released. He said spending on Baccarat, a card game favored by Chinese gamblers, will be telling.

“The question is if it spreads, does it lead to a shift in travel behavior,” he said. “If it is contained and goes away pretty quickly, it’s not going to be a big impact.”

Some of Las Vegas’ biggest casino owners, such as Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts International, may suffer the biggest blows because they also own resorts in Macau, an autonomous region of China where casinos have been shuttered.

Americans, meanwhile, are cutting back on travel for fear of infection. Travel Leaders Network, a group of 5,700 travel agencies in North America, said it surveyed nearly 400 travel advisors and found that about one-third reported a high to moderate number of cancellations to China and other parts of Asia.

Anoosheh Oskouian, chief executive of Ship & Shore, a Signal Hill provider of pollution-abatement equipment, said she won’t travel to China to check on operations at a manufacturing facility for fear of getting the virus.

The firm became a co-owner of a plant in China late last year to offset the costs of higher tariffs on products it imports.

“This is the first time we are manufacturing everything there and I’m not able to go back,” Oskouian said. “I’m supposed to be in China right now. We’re almost completely out of touch with the people we should be in regular contact with. It’s one of those problems where it’s hard to develop a solution.”

A broad swath of U.S. firms that sell goods and services in China also are losing sales due to the virus.

McDonald’s Corp., Nike Inc. and Starbucks Corp. already have closed scores of stores in China. The apparel firm Under Armour Inc. said the outbreak would cause its sales to drop by $50 million to $60 million.

Skechers USA Inc., the Manhattan Beach-based footwear maker, also reported “a significant number of temporary store closures” and said its comparable store sales in China — or those of stores open at least a year — were “below average.”

Walt Disney Co. has temporarily shut down its theme parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong, which is expected to cut $175 million from its second-quarter operating income.

The coronavirus also has effectively shut down mainland China’s booming cinema industry, with almost all theaters in the country closed, and Chinese and U.S. studios have felt the effects of the pause.

During the Spring Festival holiday, which ran Jan. 24 through Feb. 12, box-office sales totaled about $3.94 million, down nearly 100% from $1.5 billion the same holiday period a year ago, according to Artisan Gateway, a consultancy that follows the Chinese film industry.

For studios outside China, including Hollywood companies that often rely on the country’s massive population to pad results for their movies, the market has virtually vanished temporarily due to the outbreak. Imported films have grossed a mere $37.8 million at Chinese theaters so far this year, down 86% from the same period in 2019, according to Artisan Gateway data.

Tesla Inc., meanwhile, shut down its new Shanghai assembly plant from Feb. 2 to Feb. 10, but it’s unclear how much production has resumed. The Fremont automaker was aiming to build 150,000 electric cars at the facility this year.

“It is unknown whether and how global supply chains, particularly for automotive parts, may be affected if such an epidemic persists for an extended period of time,” Tesla said in its newly issued 2019 annual report.

Overall, the virus will disrupt production of at least 1 million vehicles across the industry, the China Assn. of Automobile Manufacturers said.

Even if the outbreak stabilized today, “it’s probably three weeks before you get real visibility” on its effect on the carmakers “and everyone has their own plans to either throttle down or ramp up capacity,” said Dan Hearsch, a managing director at the consulting firm AlixPartners.

Earlier this month, European commercial aircraft maker Airbus temporarily closed a final assembly line for its A-320 aircraft in Tianjin, China, but the company said Thursday it had been authorized by Chinese authorities to reopen the line. Airbus did not specify when it would restart or how the closure affected its business.

“Airbus is constantly evaluating the situation and monitoring any potential secondary effects to production and deliveries and will try to mitigate via alternative plans where necessary,” Airbus said.

Due to tight government regulations, the U.S. aerospace industry does not typically import components from China, though materials from China can be made into parts elsewhere in the world and eventually used in U.S. planes and other vehicles."

From LA times.
 

New Posts

Latest Threads

Top