MERS Coronavirus warning

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LE
Book Reviewer
Any matheticians care to work out the likely accuracy of the test? Assume a 50% chance that one in 5000 ( has to be an early case) could test negative 6 times?

I make it about 85%.
 
COVID 19 it has now been diplomatically named. CO" stands for "corona", "VI" for "virus" and "D" for "disease", while "19" was for the year, as the outbreak was first identified on December 31.

WHO chief has indicated that the name was chosen to avoid references to a specific geographical location, animal species, or group of people in line with international recommendations for naming, and aimed at preventing stigmatisation. They have called for sharing of virus samples, and speeding up research into drugs and vaccines. It could take up to 18 months for the first vaccines to be ready.

China has in the past managed to get itself a bad rep by being secretive about big infections and covering up 'bad press’. This does not encourage one to generally believe news coming from China about the spread, or cause.

Given its ruthless drive to become the worlds leading superpower it does however, unfortunately encourage belief in reports of the virus having possibly escaped from a research facility.

What is indisputable is that the cover-up, instead of transparency and a united WHO effort to identify and try to attack the virus early in its development, has allowed it to gain ground and perhaps spread further and faster than it possibly should have.

A key unknown which scientists are working on is how contagious the coronavirus is. Unlike flu, at present there is no vaccine for the new coronavirus. Most at risk are vulnerable members of the population like elderly or those who have existing respiratory or compromised immunity. Present advise is increased attention to basic hygiene, increased hand-washing, and avoiding other people if you, or they are feeling unwell.

China is now taking serious steps to try and contain the outbreak.

Recent news.
 
Any matheticians care to work out the likely accuracy of the test? Assume a 50% chance that one in 5000 ( has to be an early case) could test negative 6 times?

I make it about 85%.
I think the test is pretty reliable and accurate. Much more than 85% (show workings!).

According to the CDC it does not generate false positives or false negatives.

Some tests were “inconclusive” possibly as a result of one of the three reagents being duff. The CDC has corrected for this.

I guess there is also the issue of some tests being botched through inexperienced staff, testing in a hurry, volume of testing, poor systems etc.

The fact that that bloke tested negative six times is probably because he was negative at the times of testing and caught it later.
 

skid2

LE
Book Reviewer
I see the Blitz/Dunkirk spirit on the ship has gone walkies. Johnson being held responsible for doing nothing, not swapping places.
 

Pop Smoke

Swinger
The Beeb are reporting the first African case in Egypt.

“Egypt's health ministry on Friday confirmed the first case of the coronavirus in Africa.
The ministry described the person as a foreigner, but did not disclose the nationality.
It said it had notified the WHO, and the patient had been placed in isolation in a hospital.
Experts had earlier warned that it may not be long before the first case was confirmed in Africa, given its increasingly close ties to China.”
 

PFGEN

GCM
The Beeb are reporting the first African case in Egypt.

“Egypt's health ministry on Friday confirmed the first case of the coronavirus in Africa.
The ministry described the person as a foreigner, but did not disclose the nationality.
It said it had notified the WHO, and the patient had been placed in isolation in a hospital.
Experts had earlier warned that it may not be long before the first case was confirmed in Africa, given its increasingly close ties to China.”
Somebody pointed out today that a lot of your African Chinese are there on long contracts and won't have been allowed out for a holiday. No idea how much truth there is in this but if true it might explain why we haven't seen the virus take off in Africa....yet.
 
The Beeb are reporting the first African case in Egypt.

“Egypt's health ministry on Friday confirmed the first case of the coronavirus in Africa.
The ministry described the person as a foreigner, but did not disclose the nationality.
It said it had notified the WHO, and the patient had been placed in isolation in a hospital.
Experts had earlier warned that it may not be long before the first case was confirmed in Africa, given its increasingly close ties to China.”
It will travel through Africa faster than an Australian bush fire and with more devastation.
 

Pop Smoke

Swinger
It will travel through Africa faster than an Australian bush fire and with more devastation.
Agreed. As with China though I doubt we will get to see the full picture if it goes through the continent like a dose of salts. The Chinese authorities have the ability to test/report on a scale that would paint a clearer picture of what is happening but are obviously choosing not to. The myriad of African nations with scant testing/reporting facilities don't have a chance. In fairness I’d be surprised if it’s not taken off there already
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
I think there is a case for seeking out the right kind of doctor.

An uncle of mine who had served in Italy, Greece and the old Tripolitania area and particularly Libya for about ten years post ww2 suffered from extreme tiredness and shaking with hot and cold fevers. It was always described as flu by the local English doctors. This went on for years. Happened a couple of times a year then calmed down.

In the early seventies, it got really bad one year and I 'phoned the on call doctor who happened to be Indian or Pakistani in appearance. He took one look and diagnosed it as malaria.. Whilst quite a long course of treatments followed, he never suffered from this illness again which had caused him and us lots of worry.

I think doctors are like the rest of us. If they don't come across a job spec regularly, they get rusty and eventually forget their training.
To be fair, oriental bugs are a breed apart - if you never see them, you don't expect them.

@bumhole - You're not disrespecting a GP to take the case to a specialist - they'll be glad to have you off their slop chit :)

( and yes, a lot of British doctors are sublimely unaware that Italy (and parts of southern France e.g the Camargue) have both malarial mozzies and West Nile fever.)


West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is related to Japanese encephalitis, St. Louis encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses. As the names of the viruses imply, WNV can cause encephalitis, however, as with most infectious diseases, clinical disease is relatively rare. Approximately 75% of infections are asymptomatic, 25% will be an influenza-like fever (known as West Nile fever [WNF]), ~1% will be neurologic disease (known as West Nile neurologic disease [WNND]) and ~0.1% will proceed to a fatal neurologic infection.

Image result for West Nile fever in Europe
www.ecdc.europa.eu

EU neighbouring countries reported 53 human cases in Serbia (27), Israel (10), Turkey (10) and North Macedonia (6). To date, 50 deaths due to West Nile virus infection have been reported by Greece (34), Romania (8), Italy (4), Cyprus (1), Bulgaria (1), North Macedonia (1) and Serbia (1).22 Nov 2019
 
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holyphuc

Clanker
COVID 19 it has now been diplomatically named. CO" stands for "corona", "VI" for "virus" and "D" for "disease", while "19" was for the year, as the outbreak was first identified on December 31
The last one ended up being called Spanish flu despite starting in the US, what should the nickname for this one be?
 
At this time, it does not seem to be as serious as, say flu, however various viral strains have suddenly turned seriously lethal, then have spread incredibly rapidly with huge kill rates.

The Spanish Flu was estimated to have killed 25–39 million. Various later estimates varied from 50 million or less than 3% of the global population to as high as 100 million, more than 5%. What has changed is the ability of carriers to travel rapidly between countries and continents, and the speed at which this happens globally.

At this COVID 19’s lethality is still being ascertained. It is known troubling viruses have usually originated in animal hosts. Ebola, flu, SARS/severe acute respiratory syndrome MERS/Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome are caused by coronaviruses that came from animals. The problem is that here is no vaccine, and a gap until one comes, should it mutate into something more lethal.

We are receiving a warning, let's hope this one like some of the others can be contained.
 
A couple of links:

A little old now but an article on the Cruise ships. Be ready to read it straight away if you follow the link. Only so many free articles a month.


A couple that popped up elsewhere.

China has launched an app so people can check their risk of catching the coronavirus


To fight coronavirus spread, U.S. may expand 'social distancing' measures
 
Fantastic!


Can't wait for the supportive gig at Wembley, now where's Geldof these days?
He was on Steve Wright a week or so ago, new album and Boomtown Rats tour in the offing.

Can’t we redistribute some of the afflicted to Iraq, Iran and other points of interest?

Africa will be dire if this kicks off, especially in the back country, it will be well spread before the city based governments know what has hit them. If COV takes a day trip to the DRC and it has a blind date with Ebola then it will really give WHO something to think about.
 

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