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MERS Coronavirus warning

Great to wakeup this morning to the news of a probable full lockdown next week. All the news presenters smiling etc, absolutely wonderful stuff, just like what PC supa predicted.
 
More panic and fearmongering by Dr John.

A fair bit of raised eyebrows when it comes to ICL compared with Kings College reports and general slagging off the awful press coverage we've endured.

I've made the point before I feel SAGE and the Government are stood on the hillside with their map (report) and that hill over there could be that mountain, but that rivers in the wrong place. But if they ignore that then that other hill must be the right one and they know where they are.
 
I've found this amusing (not at all biased) article from the FT at the start of the month praising Germany:

And from yesterday:

Now I also seem to recall at the start of the panicdemic Germany was a shining example of how to do things right from the off with its low rates of transmission and deaths, so what happened?

I can't believe the German people suddenly all decided to say sod it and not follow the rules, following orders is what they do. So just maybe all these shining examples of countries that had a handle on this from the outset, South Korea, Germany etc only postponed the tide briefly and they are now heading into our March & April?

same happened in Ireland
 

JCC

War Hero
Behind the paywall.
Graphs in this article are interesting and raised a similar question I had when I looked at the Spectators classified report.

'Cases' are higher than the SAGE report says it should be as are admissions so its clearly wrong.
Either they simply arent flapping enough and 1000 a day will be dying by the end of next month or something else is happening? Either way its wrong so why follow it?
"Our neighbour Sweden is often criticised for not locking down, with many pointing to Norway’s lower Covid death rate. What most fail to mention is that we didn’t have a full lockdown either."

"Yes, schools, kindergartens, higher education institutions, hairdressers and gyms were shut, we were encouraged to work from home, non-essential travel was discouraged, and restrictions were imposed on international arrivals. But shops, restaurants and bars stayed open, we did not impose any kind of curfew, and there have been no rules about when or how many times one can go out. As with Sweden, face masks are not mandatory – and very few people wear them."

"Instead, authorities put a strong emphasis on social distancing, the importance of taking care of the vulnerable, and the need to avoid burdening the health system. Norwegians have criticised the confusing Covid-19 messaging from the Swedish health authorities, and many view Sweden’s efforts in this regard as a failure."

"Many in the country came to accept early on that travelling abroad was not an option in 2020. So, we have stayed close to our families and met friends outdoors. As people began to realize there would be nowhere to go, boat sales went up, and by mid-summer the fjords were packed with people from various parts of the country, hopping from island to island. "

"Norway has kept the rate of Covid-19 infections low – it has registered 19,000 coronavirus cases since February, and 281 people have died so far. Over the months, the government has refined its testing and tracking capabilities. The fortnight following the first positive case was uncertain, but when the government tells the people that they need to practice caution, Norwegians listen. There is a deep sense of trust here towards the political system, the government, the leaders, and, most importantly, the information they share with the public. A survey from September shows that seven out of 10 Norwegians trust the government’s coronavirus messaging."
 
Is that indicative of a degree of acquired immunity kicking in?

Here's an article from The Lancet in August, a top British medical publication. Studies of anti-body prevalence in Sweden put it at 7.5% to 10%. Herd immunity is believed to require at least 50% to 70%. I'll let you do the numbers yourself for how long it would take to get to 70% of the population at a rate of 7.5% to 10% every 8 months or so.
community estimates range from 7·5% to 10%


You can get higher individual numbers in isolated cases by for example cherry picking data from health care workers who were exposed through hospital outbreaks due to lack of PPE, but that has no relevance to the theory of herd immunity.

There's also the problem that there is so far no scientific evidence that it is possible for herd immunity to COVID-19 to develop via natural infection. If you have been following some of the recent posts about current studies, you will have seen references to questions about whether people who have had very mild symptoms or were asymptomatic will experience a strong enough immune response to develop lasting immunity and can therefore contribute to herd immunity.

So the idea that herd immunity to COVID-19 across the population will develop naturally, as opposed to the normal means of vaccination (which is what herd immunity normally applies to), is speculation rather than established theory.

The official position of the Swedish authorities is that they have no plans to try to achieve herd immunity through natural infection. Some top officials in the Swedish public health authority may have wanted to do this, but it's not the position of the Swedish government. The official Swedish plan is based on social distancing and relying on the Swedish public to obey the guidelines willingly for the sake of the collective good rather than putting their own personal interests first. If you want to know whether the UK could do the same, well just look at the persons posting on this thread saying that what they care about is whether or not it affects them personally and to hell with the "collective good".

There is however a worldwide plan to develop herd immunity, but through mass vaccination rather than through mass infection. That plan is based on well established scientific and medical knowledge and current progress suggests that a solution will be in hand in a matter of months.
 
The question is whether Sweden is doing something 'right' compared to the UK or if Sweden has got their inevitable deaths out of the way early.

The UK population is a bit less than 7 times bigger than Sweden's so total deaths per capita are broadly comparable. The UK has 680 deaths per million people compared to the Swedes with 587 deaths per million.
There's no evidence to suggest that the number of deaths which have occurred so far has done more than scratch the surface of the number that potentially could occur.

The pattern we are seeing this autumn is the same pattern that we saw in the spring. Increased outbreaks across the community are followed by rising hospitalisations which are followed by rising deaths, and also increasing numbers of care home outbreaks.

What is happening now as opposed to the spring is that this is happening at a slower pace. This is very likely due to the various control measures which act to limit the rate at which infection can spread, and also by greater experience among the population at large (at least among those who have enough brain cells to apply the experience) in putting those measures into practice.
 

Himmler74

On ROPS
On ROPs
Here's an article from The Lancet in August, a top British medical publication. Studies of anti-body prevalence in Sweden put it at 7.5% to 10%. Herd immunity is believed to require at least 50% to 70%. I'll let you do the numbers yourself for how long it would take to get to 70% of the population at a rate of 7.5% to 10% every 8 months or so.



You can get higher individual numbers in isolated cases by for example cherry picking data from health care workers who were exposed through hospital outbreaks due to lack of PPE, but that has no relevance to the theory of herd immunity.

There's also the problem that there is so far no scientific evidence that it is possible for herd immunity to COVID-19 to develop via natural infection. If you have been following some of the recent posts about current studies, you will have seen references to questions about whether people who have had very mild symptoms or were asymptomatic will experience a strong enough immune response to develop lasting immunity and can therefore contribute to herd immunity.

So the idea that herd immunity to COVID-19 across the population will develop naturally, as opposed to the normal means of vaccination (which is what herd immunity normally applies to), is speculation rather than established theory.

The official position of the Swedish authorities is that they have no plans to try to achieve herd immunity through natural infection. Some top officials in the Swedish public health authority may have wanted to do this, but it's not the position of the Swedish government. The official Swedish plan is based on social distancing and relying on the Swedish public to obey the guidelines willingly for the sake of the collective good rather than putting their own personal interests first. If you want to know whether the UK could do the same, well just look at the persons posting on this thread saying that what they care about is whether or not it affects them personally and to hell with the "collective good".

There is however a worldwide plan to develop herd immunity, but through mass vaccination rather than through mass infection. That plan is based on well established scientific and medical knowledge and current progress suggests that a solution will be in hand in a matter of months.

there is no evidence of long term immunity!

there wasn’t in February/March when Boris decided to follow the herd immunity idea and there still isn’t.
 

Chalkythedog

Old-Salt
It's not often you get a ringside seat at the spectacle of a country self destructing. In a vain attempt to live forever we are spending our children's future. They will have no jobs and no money. What a thing to do.
 

crow_bag

War Hero
there is no evidence of long term immunity!

there wasn’t in February/March when Boris decided to follow the herd immunity idea and there still isn’t.
Well the fact there have been less that 10 confirmed cases of people contracting COVID-19 twice in the entire world there must be some form of immunity.

And as for evidence of any immunity being "long term" the virus has only been known about for 10-11 months, surely we will need to be monitoring for people getting reinfected over a number of years to see how long any immunity lasts.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 
There's no evidence to suggest that the number of deaths which have occurred so far has done more than scratch the surface of the number that potentially could occur.
There's also no evidence that the projected worst case deaths will happen. The second wave of deaths has been predicted since June and might possibly happen in November/December.

The UK government clearly stated that the elderly are the ones at risk, yet are not asking the elderly to shield themselves. The UK government clearly stated that the young are at minimal risk, yet are telling young adults not to go outside.

Unless of course they are going outside for food, medical appointments, education, exercise or work if they cannot work from home. I'm quite relieved, I thought the lockdown might affect me but it's very much life as normal.
 
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When the first wave started we were told there would be a world class test, track and trace system in place within weeks.
It never happened.
Despite the considerable amount of public cash spunked up against the wall.

Now, in the second wave, we are told there will be a 10-15 minute test available.
Should we hold our collective breath for this test to materialise this autumn/winter?
Or ever?

The not-a-lockdown won't change how me and the missus will live. I've been working from home since this started. She's been going to work at the hospital. I've been doing Dad's shopping and ours.

It won't change how any of our 3 kids and their partners are living either.

How many others are in the same position? So apart from the pub/restaurant/gym crowd, who will change their behaviour?
 
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there is no evidence of long term immunity!

there wasn’t in February/March when Boris decided to follow the herd immunity idea and there still isn’t.
If by "long term" we mean a year or more as opposed to a few months, I think that some of the current studies suggest it's a matter of whether the immune system is stimulated enough to develop the full range of responses.

With a very mild or asymptomatic case there may not be enough of an immune response for more than short term (a few months) immunity. We don't know the answer for absolute certainty on this, but recent studies seem to be pointing in that direction. In that case of course, herd immunity through natural infection would be a mirage.

If someone gets more seriously ill, not necessarily hospitalised but ill enough to really feel it, then the full range of immune response is likely elicited and longer term immunity ensues (assuming you don't die of course). Scientists seem fairly confident about this so far.

Vaccines normally have additives which are intended to stimulate a stronger immune response when used in conjunction with the actual vaccine element. There has been mention of this in reports on vaccine developments.
 

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