Lardbeast
LE

...Swedens death rate is low even though cases are rising. And to be fair, so is the UK at present.
Is that indicative of a degree of acquired immunity kicking in?
...Swedens death rate is low even though cases are rising. And to be fair, so is the UK at present.
Its the Mail but.... "New month long lockdown coming next week"Any source?
I've found this amusing (not at all biased) article from the FT at the start of the month praising Germany:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publicationwww.ft.com
And from yesterday:
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Germany’s Christmas markets threatened by coronavirus
The crisis means most of the country’s 3,000 Christmas markets will be canceled this year.www.politico.eu
Now I also seem to recall at the start of the panicdemic Germany was a shining example of how to do things right from the off with its low rates of transmission and deaths, so what happened?
I can't believe the German people suddenly all decided to say sod it and not follow the rules, following orders is what they do. So just maybe all these shining examples of countries that had a handle on this from the outset, South Korea, Germany etc only postponed the tide briefly and they are now heading into our March & April?
"Our neighbour Sweden is often criticised for not locking down, with many pointing to Norway’s lower Covid death rate. What most fail to mention is that we didn’t have a full lockdown either."Behind the paywall.
Graphs in this article are interesting and raised a similar question I had when I looked at the Spectators classified report.
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Coronavirus: What's the TRUTH behind England's second wave?
Professor James Naismith, an Oxford University expert who wasn't involved with either study said: 'We can be almost certain that we will see an increase in the number of deaths per day from Covid-19.'www.dailymail.co.uk
'Cases' are higher than the SAGE report says it should be as are admissions so its clearly wrong.
Either they simply arent flapping enough and 1000 a day will be dying by the end of next month or something else is happening? Either way its wrong so why follow it?
I think that Sweden with their smaller population, having no lockdown and practising
social distancing etc paid off, whether it would have worked for the UK is anybody's
guess
Is that indicative of a degree of acquired immunity kicking in?
community estimates range from 7·5% to 10%
There's no evidence to suggest that the number of deaths which have occurred so far has done more than scratch the surface of the number that potentially could occur.The question is whether Sweden is doing something 'right' compared to the UK or if Sweden has got their inevitable deaths out of the way early.
The UK population is a bit less than 7 times bigger than Sweden's so total deaths per capita are broadly comparable. The UK has 680 deaths per million people compared to the Swedes with 587 deaths per million.
Here's an article from The Lancet in August, a top British medical publication. Studies of anti-body prevalence in Sweden put it at 7.5% to 10%. Herd immunity is believed to require at least 50% to 70%. I'll let you do the numbers yourself for how long it would take to get to 70% of the population at a rate of 7.5% to 10% every 8 months or so.
You can get higher individual numbers in isolated cases by for example cherry picking data from health care workers who were exposed through hospital outbreaks due to lack of PPE, but that has no relevance to the theory of herd immunity.
There's also the problem that there is so far no scientific evidence that it is possible for herd immunity to COVID-19 to develop via natural infection. If you have been following some of the recent posts about current studies, you will have seen references to questions about whether people who have had very mild symptoms or were asymptomatic will experience a strong enough immune response to develop lasting immunity and can therefore contribute to herd immunity.
So the idea that herd immunity to COVID-19 across the population will develop naturally, as opposed to the normal means of vaccination (which is what herd immunity normally applies to), is speculation rather than established theory.
The official position of the Swedish authorities is that they have no plans to try to achieve herd immunity through natural infection. Some top officials in the Swedish public health authority may have wanted to do this, but it's not the position of the Swedish government. The official Swedish plan is based on social distancing and relying on the Swedish public to obey the guidelines willingly for the sake of the collective good rather than putting their own personal interests first. If you want to know whether the UK could do the same, well just look at the persons posting on this thread saying that what they care about is whether or not it affects them personally and to hell with the "collective good".
There is however a worldwide plan to develop herd immunity, but through mass vaccination rather than through mass infection. That plan is based on well established scientific and medical knowledge and current progress suggests that a solution will be in hand in a matter of months.
Well the fact there have been less that 10 confirmed cases of people contracting COVID-19 twice in the entire world there must be some form of immunity.there is no evidence of long term immunity!
there wasn’t in February/March when Boris decided to follow the herd immunity idea and there still isn’t.
There's also no evidence that the projected worst case deaths will happen. The second wave of deaths has been predicted since June and might possibly happen in November/December.There's no evidence to suggest that the number of deaths which have occurred so far has done more than scratch the surface of the number that potentially could occur.
If by "long term" we mean a year or more as opposed to a few months, I think that some of the current studies suggest it's a matter of whether the immune system is stimulated enough to develop the full range of responses.there is no evidence of long term immunity!
there wasn’t in February/March when Boris decided to follow the herd immunity idea and there still isn’t.