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MERS Coronavirus warning

Absolutely

but they are likely to be using a Nightingale soon as they are all under pressure

they have also asked about sending patients to the Republic


of course ignores the fact that the local Republic hospitals are swamped due to Stormont’s failure to stop the spread

Ref the Bold. Presented as opinion or fact?

I wonder did the City revert completely to Normal jogging? ISTR some sort on Nightingale prep down at the Harbour in the conference place but I understood the City was to be the main site.
 
Ref the Bold. Presented as opinion or fact?

I wonder did the City revert completely to Normal jogging? ISTR some sort on Nightingale prep down at the Harbour in the conference place but I understood the City was to be the main site.

Reported in last 24 hours:

NI
722 cases
13 deaths

RoI
720 cases
5 deaths

RoI population is approx 4 times that of NI


They have had huge numbers in NI over the last 1-2 months and only started Restrictions on 14 October.

not that our Government acted in a timely fashion down here
 
That's not as big a deal as it sounds. If you check most people's blood for antibodies against chickenpox there won't be any (assuming they had chickenpox as a child). Those people are still immune to chickenpox as their immune system retains a 'memory' of the chickenpox virus and if they are reinfected their body rapidly produces huge numbers of antibodies.

A bigger deal would be if there is no long term memory of the COVID virus.
With respect to anti-bodies fading, this has been discussed on this thread before as other studies have mentioned it. As you said, this is normal and is not a problem provided the body retains the ability to rapidly manufacture new ones now that it's had prior experience with the virus and stored it in the immune system's "memory".

I haven't read this paper, but in the previous news reports the alarmism came from the person writing the popular news report not understanding what the study was actually saying or trying to measure.

Sero-prevalence studies that were conducted in Canada and several other countries had to take this into account when estimating the overall level of exposure in the community. They did this by using stored blood samples that were taken for other purposes a while ago instead of relying on fresh samples where the anti-bodies may have faded. So, this is a well-known and expected phenomenon.
 
The "fattie" factor does seem to explain some things but for some reason doesn't seem to be talked about. Maybe a flurry when PMBJ went down but I haven't heard much since then.

Japan, Asia, Africa - youth or skinnyness or both?

Are they scared to make an issue of it, or do they feel that it's pointless.

Being somewhat "big-boned" myself I would like to know more.
It's been known from early on that being overweight was a risk factor in having serious COVID-19 symptoms. I don't know all the reasons for that, so I won't try to speculate on why that is, although I do seem to recall that this didn't seem to come as a surprised to anyone in the medical field.
 
That would be the vast majority of the Welsh buggered then.

No wonder they went into lockdown.

I have read that the Japanese (very similar to Sweden) have had so much success with their non-lockdown policy is that they have - in general - healthier BMIs.

Not my Uncle Takihiko; he's a right fat gimp.

Gov should've started a 'don't be fat' campaign.
From what has been reported in the news, what the Japanese were successful with was preventing the virus from spreading widely to begin with. I don't think anyone has reported just what all the reasons for that are, but big factors mentioned so far are that the Japanese are already well drilled in the hand-washing, social distancing, and mask wearing business already, and have been for decades. It's been drilled into them since several plagues went around east Asia about a century or more ago.

There's also cultural factors which contribute to it as well, as the Japanese are less likely to shake hands or stand close to one another, and tend to be more fastidious about cleanliness as well.

When they did have outbreaks they were able to use targetted measures to do things like shut down karaoke bars and nightclubs where the main spread was taking place.

There was public affairs show here recently which discussed how the virus was spreading unevenly (I can find it and post a Youtube copy if anyone asks for it). There is much talk about the "R factor" which says that for example on average one person may give it to two other people, who then give it to four other people etc. That however is on average. What actually will happen is that out of 20 people (to pick some numbers out of the air for illustration), 19 will give it to nobody, but the 20th will give it to 40 people. Then two people out of that 40 will give it to 80, etc. It's not that the issue is simply something about this 20th person's biology, it's more to do with what stage of infection they are at, what sort of activities they undertake, and all sorts of other factors which combine together.

If you can find who that 20th person is and more importantly under what circumstances they will spread it, you can be a lot more selective in how you apply your restrictions. The analogy given was that when the holes in the Swiss cheese all line up, that's when you get a major transmission event. The Japanese public health officials are apparently very experienced at finding where the holes in the cheese line up and focusing on that.

One thing they do in east Asia differently than we do here is that their tracing system traces backwards much more deeply than we do here. That is, when someone tests positive we look for all the contacts that they may have had while infectious. In east Asia they look backwards to find where that person might have got the infection from, and then trace forwards from there. They find where the holes in the cheese lined up and so catch a lot more cases that way, which is a lot more effective at breaking the transmission chain.

The recommendation of the public health professionals which were interviewed in the video that I mentioned was for us to adopt this sort of "backwards tracing" here as well. However, it's not simple to do, it's a lot more labour intensive, and takes experience to get it right. Also, very often the public health system will look at credit (and I assume debit) card and cell phone information to try to track people down, so it's quite intrusive as well.

However, this is very likely a major factor in how the east Asian countries have been successful at keeping infection levels low.
 

Winnet

War Hero
From what has been reported in the news, what the Japanese were successful with was preventing the virus from spreading widely to begin with. I don't think anyone has reported just what all the reasons for that are, but big factors mentioned so far are that the Japanese are already well drilled in the hand-washing, social distancing, and mask wearing business already, and have been for decades. It's been drilled into them since several plagues went around east Asia about a century or more ago.

There's also cultural factors which contribute to it as well, as the Japanese are less likely to shake hands or stand close to one another, and tend to be more fastidious about cleanliness as well.

When they did have outbreaks they were able to use targetted measures to do things like shut down karaoke bars and nightclubs where the main spread was taking place.

There was public affairs show here recently which discussed how the virus was spreading unevenly (I can find it and post a Youtube copy if anyone asks for it). There is much talk about the "R factor" which says that for example on average one person may give it to two other people, who then give it to four other people etc. That however is on average. What actually will happen is that out of 20 people (to pick some numbers out of the air for illustration), 19 will give it to nobody, but the 20th will give it to 40 people. Then two people out of that 40 will give it to 80, etc. It's not that the issue is simply something about this 20th person's biology, it's more to do with what stage of infection they are at, what sort of activities they undertake, and all sorts of other factors which combine together.

If you can find who that 20th person is and more importantly under what circumstances they will spread it, you can be a lot more selective in how you apply your restrictions. The analogy given was that when the holes in the Swiss cheese all line up, that's when you get a major transmission event. The Japanese public health officials are apparently very experienced at finding where the holes in the cheese line up and focusing on that.

One thing they do in east Asia differently than we do here is that their tracing system traces backwards much more deeply than we do here. That is, when someone tests positive we look for all the contacts that they may have had while infectious. In east Asia they look backwards to find where that person might have got the infection from, and then trace forwards from there. They find where the holes in the cheese lined up and so catch a lot more cases that way, which is a lot more effective at breaking the transmission chain.

The recommendation of the public health professionals which were interviewed in the video that I mentioned was for us to adopt this sort of "backwards tracing" here as well. However, it's not simple to do, it's a lot more labour intensive, and takes experience to get it right. Also, very often the public health system will look at credit (and I assume debit) card and cell phone information to try to track people down, so it's quite intrusive as well.

However, this is very likely a major factor in how the east Asian countries have been successful at keeping infection levels low.

Doing the basics as a community has its benefits .
 
Reported in last 24 hours:

NI
722 cases
13 deaths

RoI
720 cases
5 deaths

RoI population is approx 4 times that of NI


They have had huge numbers in NI over the last 1-2 months and only started Restrictions on 14 October.

not that our Government acted in a timely fashion down here

Touche. Thats quite marked, certainly more than I expected. I have to confess I haven't been watching anything except the ZOE app with any regularity recently and its not the most useful for international comparisons or in fact intra national comparisons with my region as everywhere outside Belfast, Ards and North Down and Lisburn and Castlereagh has insufficient data for the mapping.


Is there a ZOE App equivalent in ROI (or anywhere else for that matter).
 
If this happens it will be interesting to see who goes where from where. Altnagelvin would be quite far from Belfast but I'm struggling to think of an equivalent hospital closer in the South. Shipping patients across the border in preference to using the Nightingale option is saying something about the attitude of the Medical establishment to the whole Nightingale concept.
 
Touche. Thats quite marked, certainly more than I expected. I have to confess I haven't been watching anything except the ZOE app with any regularity recently and its not the most useful for international comparisons or in fact intra national comparisons with my region as everywhere outside Belfast, Ards and North Down and Lisburn and Castlereagh has insufficient data for the mapping.


Is there a ZOE App equivalent in ROI (or anywhere else for that matter).
Which makes you wonder where they get the info

not current about currently but about 2 weeks ago Derry Strabane had the highest rates in the U.K. and it was well publicised here

the HSE covid hub or the Irish covid tracker app
 
If this happens it will be interesting to see who goes where from where. Altnagelvin would be quite far from Belfast but I'm struggling to think of an equivalent hospital closer in the South. Shipping patients across the border in preference to using the Nightingale option is saying something about the attitude of the Medical establishment to the whole Nightingale concept.

well all the hospitals close to the border are at full tilt

Sinn Fein protested against the British Army helping months ago
 
Which makes you wonder where they get the info

not current about currently but about 2 weeks ago Derry Strabane had the highest rates in the U.K. and it was well publicised here

the HSE covid hub or the Irish covid tracker app

ZOE App serves a different function to the government apps. Its a research effort to try and predict illness accurately from symtoms. You report your location and how you currently feel daily with a few questions to summarize your activity weekly. If you have a test you can voluntarily put your test details into the app also. My only test so far was triggered by me saying I felt a bit crook and the app told me to apply for a test and gave me a particular set of things to enter when applying. Result was negative and I entered that into the app. They show anonymised locations for the voluntarily reported positive tests in the app (which do show across NI even where there is insufficient data for the ordinary map). Its this that I have been watching most. I'd share a screen shot with you but I managed to knacker my phone this afternoon and its only on the app as reward for contributors.
 
well all the hospitals close to the border are at full tilt

Sinn Fein protested against the British Army helping months ago

Thats what I mean. What practical use is moving patients from Altnagelvin to say Dublin or Cork?

I can't remember what form the assistance was to take but nobody in the Orange bits would really have been fussed if it only applied to them. If that left more capacity in whatever was acceptable to Republicans then so be it. SF's biggest sin IMHO was insisting on a 6 week (?) lock down to separate themselves from the DUP. It made early adoption of more appropriate measures less likely.
 
Thats what I mean. What practical use is moving patients from Altnagelvin to say Dublin or Cork?

I can't remember what form the assistance was to take but nobody in the Orange bits would really have been fussed if it only applied to them. If that left more capacity in whatever was acceptable to Republicans then so be it. SF's biggest sin IMHO was insisting on a 6 week (?) lock down to separate themselves from the DUP. It made early adoption of more appropriate measures less likely.
Except to make a difference should have been done in Derry in September
 
With regards to the previously posted story on declining anti-bodies, here's a CBC story on it.
Scientists find signs of waning antibody immunity to COVID-19 over time in England

The CBC story does mention that immunity is complex and is helped by T cells and B cells as well as anti-bodies. The T and B cells stimulate the quick production of new anti-bodies when re-exposed to the virus again. However, with other coronaviruses immunity declines at the same rate as anti-bodies. I'm not entirely sure if this refers to just immediate immunity, or whether this refers to T and B cell response as well. The full answer might be a bit more complicated than will fit into a news story.
Although immunity to the novel coronavirus is a complex and murky area and may be assisted by T cells as well as B cells, which can stimulate the quick production of antibodies following re-exposure to the virus, the researchers said the experience of other coronaviruses suggested immunity might not be enduring.

"We can see the antibodies and we can see them declining and we know that antibodies on their own are quite protective," Wendy Barclay, head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, told reporters.

"On the balance of evidence I would say, with what we know for other coronaviruses, it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity at the population level."

According to another researcher who was not involved in the study, the issue seems to be that very mild cases may not produce lasting immunity as it may not stimulate the immune system enough to produce lasting immunity.
University of Calgary microbiologist Craig Jenne, who was not involved in the research, said antibodies can start to fade in as little as eight weeks.

"People who get mildly sick, the body doesn't seem to think it's that severe, and we don't put a lot of resources into overcoming [it]," Jenne said. "Unfortunately [in] those people, it looks like the immunity fades much quicker."

Those for whom COVID-19 was confirmed with a gold standard PCR test had a less pronounced decline in antibodies, compared to people who had been asymptomatic and unaware of their original infection.

If I understand the explanation, it seems that if you get a very mild case you may be immune for a few months and then get another mild case, and so on repeatedly as you are not actually sick enough to develop a full immune response which can produce lasting immunity (lasting more than a few months that is).

However, they didn't see this same decline in health care workers. This may be because repeated exposure does eventually produce lasting immunity. (By "lasting" I don't mean permanent, just for a longer time period). I suppose it's also possible that health care workers who are repeatedly exposed may, by chance, eventually get a severe enough case to stimulate lasting immunity.
There was no change in the levels of antibodies seen in health-care workers, possibly due to repeated exposure to the virus.

So it may be that someone who only experiences a very mild case loses immunity within a few months, but that repeated exposure may produce lasting immunity, either directly through repeated exposure or through eventually getting a more serious case. By "more serious case" I don't necessarily mean being hospitalised, I just mean it's bad enough that you definitely feel the effects and are not having a good time.

This waning immunity is not expected to affect a successful vaccine. As I understand it, various things are added to the vaccine itself to provoke a stronger immune response.
The rapid waning of antibodies did not necessarily have implications for the efficacy of vaccine candidates currently in clinical trials, Imperial's Barclay said.

"A good vaccine may well be better than natural immunity," she said.

Jen Gommerman, a professor of immunology at the University of Toronto, is studying antibody levels in response to the spike protein of the coronavirus in the saliva of people who recovered from COVID-19.

"If we can make a good antibody response to the virus, we should be able to make a good antibody response to the vaccine, and that antibody response should be reasonably durable," Gommerman said.

So the conclusion seems to be that if you had a mild or asymptomatic case, you may not get long term immunity and may be subject to reinfection some months later. You therefore may still need to be vaccinated to gain the benefits of longer term immunity.

This is interesting, but definite answers probably won't come for some time yet. Overall though, it doesn't seem to affect a strategy based on developing a vaccine.
 
Tricky one for the BCs this:

It dumps on the latest unreviewed bit of nonsense from Imperial Clown College, it uses the naughty words 'herd immunity' which Branch Covidians really, really don't like.

But it says their lockdown was good.

But only because it was so ineffective it made it worse and more people were infected than necessary, resulting in effectively (BC other favourite phrase) 'letting it rip'.

Meanwhile in the Gruniad an actual article has crept in:
 

TamH70

MIA
Tricky one for the BCs this:

It dumps on the latest unreviewed bit of nonsense from Imperial Clown College, it uses the naughty words 'herd immunity' which Branch Covidians really, really don't like.

But it says their lockdown was good.

But only because it was so ineffective it made it worse and more people were infected than necessary, resulting in effectively (BC other favourite phrase) 'letting it rip'.

Meanwhile in the Gruniad an actual article has crept in:

Yeah, a judge, or to be more accurate an ex-judge.

I'd like to see his qualifications in epidemiology before I take his opinion with anything other than an Exxon Valdez load-level of sodium chloride.
 

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