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MERS Coronavirus warning

The beatings lockdowns will continue until morale obedience improves.

At this point it's looking more and more like an exercise in saving face.

People seem to be paying lip service to the rules when they can, and the timing is most odd with the firebreak ending halfway through half term and just in time for the kids to spread their germs around before they head back to school and get the R number rising

It seems rather pointless
 
They've said the fire break won't be extended, so if they want to reintroduce it they'll have to rename it to something else
I think the song lyrics” I’d like to smash every tooth in your head”* lends itself nicely the utter cockstands who coin ridiculous metaphors like fire break and circuit breaker.
*The Smiths.
 
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Apparently cleaning materials, etc. are on the list. There was a power cut last night near where I live an no-one could buy candles!

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
 
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Sooooo.. The rules increase weekly the observance decreases daily and Covid expands across the world no matter what technique or prophylaxis used.

Knowing what we do, up to this point, with rates of infection and the subsequent death rate etc., if we were to let it rip through the UK starting today what would be the result?

Not taking sides but what are the likely numbers?
 
I went to Tescos in Chepstow, Wales, earlier this evening. Make up is still on sale.

I think that's gov saying to Welsh women that it's essential they wear it.
Every little helps..." Ching ching!"
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I went to Tescos in Chepstow, Wales, earlier this evening. Make up is still on sale.

I think that's gov saying to Welsh women that it's essential they wear it.

Proof that you can still put lipstick on a sheep
 
And here's the Friday and Saturday COVID-19 summaries.
Coronavirus: What's happening in Canada and around the world on Friday
Coronavirus: What's happening in Canada and around the world on Saturday

The vice president of Colombia has tested positive for COVID-19. It appears to be a mild case so far.
In Colombia, Vice-President Marta Lucia Ramirez has tested positive for coronavirus.

The 66-year-old took a test on Thursday ahead of her planned attendance at a conference with provincial governors, according to a statement from her office.

"The Vice-President has no symptoms and is in good health, carrying out the corresponding isolation," the statement said, adding contact tracing would be conducted.

Russia hit a new one day record for infections. They also reported 543 deaths for the month of September, up 21 percent over August.
Meanwhile in Russia, the daily tally of new coronavirus cases has hit a record 17,340, including 5,478 in Moscow, taking the national tally to 1,480,646 since the pandemic began.

On Friday, the Russian capital's health-care department said COVID-19 was the main cause of death for 543 people in Moscow last month, up 21 per cent from August.

The Netherlands have begun transferring COVID-19 patients to Germany to try to reduce the load on their own hospitals.
In Europe, the Netherlands began transferring COVID-19 patients to Germany again on Friday, as hospitals come under increasing strain from a second wave of infections.

Restaurants and pubs will close for two weeks in Poland, and public gatherings will be limited to five people.
Poland will close restaurants and bars for two weeks and limit public gatherings to five people, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday, after new coronavirus infections hit a daily record of more than 13,600.

Romania introduced new restrictions in Bucharest and other cities, after reported 5,028 new cases, a record for that country.
The number of new coronavirus infections in Romania also rose by a daily record, with 5,028 cases added in the past 24 hours, the government said on Friday, as new restrictions were introduced in Bucharest and other cities.

Iran reported a new record of 6,134 cases on Friday, and 335 deaths. New restrictions will be introduced, including state employees working in the office only every other day.
Iran's Health Ministry on Friday reported a record 6,134 new coronavirus cases for the previous 24 hours, bringing the national tally to 556,891 in the Middle East's hardest-hit country. A spokesperson said 335 people had died from the disease in the past 24 hours, bringing total fatalities to 31,985.

According to the country's senior official, Iran is planning on new restrictions, including state employees working every other day in the capital Tehran.

"One decision by the Tehran Coronavirus Taskforce is for staff at state bodies to be cut by 50 per cent next week, and coming to work every other day," task force head Alireza Zali told state news agency IRNA.

India reported 54,366 new cases, and 690 new deaths.
India reported 54,366 new cases on Friday, the fifth day in a row below 60,000 new cases, and 690 deaths in the past 24 hours.

In Ethiopia, the government announced that people can be jailed for up to two years for violating COVID-19 regulations. I should point out that many Western countries have long had jail penalties on the books for violation of quarantine regulations, so this may be just the Ethiopian government pointing out that they have a big stick which they can use if necessary.
In Africa, Ethiopia's attorney general's office has announced people can be jailed for up to two years if they deliberately violate COVID-19 restrictions, amid concern that citizens are becoming lax after a state of emergency was lifted.

The US reported 84,000 new cases on Friday, a new record for them.
More than 84,000 people were diagnosed with COVID-19 across the United States on Friday, according to a Reuters tally, a record one-day increase in infections during the pandemic as the virus surges again nationwide.

Also in the US, researchers at the University of Washington say that the US could see 500,000 COVID-19 deaths by February.
The spike of 84,218 cases — breaking the record of 77,299 set on July 16 — comes as University of Washington researchers forecast that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 could reach a total of 500,000 by February.

The Czech Republic hit a new record of 15,252 cases on Friday. The number of hospitalisations also hit a new record of over 5,000, putting hospitals under pressure.
Coronavirus infections in the Czech Republic have hit a record high, soaring to over 15,000 in one day for the first time.

The country's health ministry says the day-to-day increase of confirmed cases in the hard-hit country reached 15,252 on Friday. The previous record of 14,968 was set on Wednesday. (...)

The number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital has surpassed 5,000 for the first time, putting the health system under pressure.

The president of Poland tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday.
In Poland, President Andrzej Duda has tested positive for coronavirus, his spokesperson said on Saturday. The spokesperson, Blazej Spychalski, said on Twitter that the 48-year-old conservative leader was tested the day before and his result was positive. He said the president feels all right and is in isolation.

Protesters in Italy, unhappy with the new curfew, fought with Police in Naples.
In Italy, protesters angered over new coronavirus restrictions, including a new regional curfew, clashed with police in the city of Naples on Friday night. Some threw rocks and smoke bombs, and police officers responded with tear gas. The protesters numbered several hundred, according to local media.

The mayor of Istanbul tested positive for COVID-19.
In Turkey, the mayor of Istanbul has tested positive for COVID-19, a spokesperson for the city municipality said Saturday.

In Sri Lanka the government closed several fishing harbours and fish markets after an outbreak in the main fish market in Colombo. Hundreds of fishermen and traders are being tested. The curfew in parts of Colombo has also been widened.
Authorities in Sri Lanka on Saturday closed at least two fishery harbours and many stalls on Colombo's outskirts after a surge of 609 cases linked to the country's main fish market. Hundreds of traders and fishermen are being tested. The government also widened the curfew in parts of Colombo.
 
if we were to let it rip through the UK starting today what would be the result?

Not taking sides but what are the likely numbers?

No-one's saying 'let it rip'. In fact in the open letter published in the BMJ by Prof Bohpal, he reckons the term 'let it rip' is used by people wishing to shut down the conversation.

The counter strategy, in broad terms, is to PROTECT THE VULNERABLE and still do the stuff like track 'n' trace (if possible), test and isolate where necessary, hygiene, social distance, and limit large gatherings. Enough to slow the spread, but definitely not stop it, or lock down.

What would be the likely numbers? I don't know but Sweden and Japan have done the above and Japan's done excellently.
 
Here's more detail on the situation in the US.
U.S. sets single-day record for COVID-19 cases during new surge

The US topped 84,000 new cases on Friday, and researchers at the University of Washington project that the US could exceed 500,000 deaths by February, more than doubling the current total.
More than 84,000 people were diagnosed with COVID-19 across the United States on Friday, according to a Reuters tally, a record one-day increase in infections during the pandemic as the virus surges again nationwide.

The spike of 84,218 cases — breaking the record of 77,299 set on July 16 — comes as University of Washington researchers forecast that the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 could reach a total of 500,000 by February.

The factors driving the current increase seem to be colder weather causing people to spend more time indoors, laxer observance of pandemic restrictions, and students returning to schools and universities.
Health experts have not pinpointed the reason for the rise but have cited such factors as colder temperatures driving people inside, fatigue with COVID-19 precautions and students returning to schools and colleges.

However, if nearly everyone wears masks, then the increase in the death total could be cut in half.
The number of possible deaths could drop by 130,000 if 95 per cent of Americans would cover their faces, the IHME said, echoing a recommendation by Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Keep in mind with the above projections that they will be based on people behaving certain ways. Once rising deaths start making the headlines people tend to modify their behaviour regardless of whether regulations require them to or not.

Eighteen states set new records in terms of new cases. There are now 41,000 people hospitalised with COVID-19, up by 34 percent from the 1st of October.
Eighteen states have reported their highest daily numbers of hospitalized COVID-19 patients since the pandemic started and on Friday the number of COVID-19 patients in U.S. hospitals climbed to a two-month high.

There are now more than 41,000 hospitalized patients with coronavirus across the country, up 34 per cent from Oct. 1, according to a Reuters analysis.

On a per capita basis, the worst state is North Dakota, followed by South Dakota, Montana, and Wisconsin. Tennessee has seen a 40 percent increase in hospitalisations, although the news report wasn't clear whether this was based from the 1st of October like the rest of the numbers.
North Dakota — with 887 new cases on both Thursday and Friday — remains the hardest-hit state, based on new cases per capita, followed by South Dakota, Montana and Wisconsin, according to a Reuters tally.

In Tennessee, hospitals in Nashville said they have experienced a 40 per cent increase in patients admitted for COVID-19.
The worst part of the US at present happens to be in Steamboat's neighbourhood, although I don't know if his state is seeing a serious problem yet.

The northeastern US was the only part of the country without a big surge in new cases, although the trend is still upwards.
The Northeast remains the one region of the country without a significant surge in cases, but infections are trending higher. Boston public schools shifted to online-only learning this week.
I suspect this is mainly due to people having learned the hard way in the late winter and early spring there, and are still applying a high degree of caution. I know someone who is currently in that part of the US on medical business, and she recently told me that restrictions are still quite tight, and people there are generally staying home and spending as little time in shops as possible. Toilet paper is disappearing off the shelves and people are preparing for another lockdown, although one hasn't been announced yet.
 
Sooooo.. The rules increase weekly the observance decreases daily and Covid expands across the world no matter what technique or prophylaxis used.

Knowing what we do, up to this point, with rates of infection and the subsequent death rate etc., if we were to let it rip through the UK starting today what would be the result?

Not taking sides but what are the likely numbers?
Genuinely impossible to say as we have no reliable data on prevalence of infection. The Imperial College paper that had a major impact on policy reckoned on 510,000 deaths if nothing was done.

We can say that the under 60s are pretty much safe, excluding those that have serious health conditions. Above that age it becomes harder to tell which deaths would have happened anyway but have COVID on the death certificate, which deaths have been hurried up by COVID by a few months and which deaths are genuinely a departure from normal jogging and the casualty might have lived another decade+.

Excess deaths is a pretty good indicator and, the last I heard, we are about normal compared to the 5 year average.

I reckon that we will reach the stage that the majority of society have been infected before an effective and safe vaccine is rolled out. Nothing will stop that, the same way that colds and the flu are still spreading throughout society.

All of the above is my own opinion and not specifically backed up by evidence.
 
Also from the US, residents of the Northwest Angle, a small bit of the northern US which is accessible by road only through Canada are bemoaning their fate of being cut off from the rest of the US by the closure of the border.
Cut off from their own country, U.S. residents of Northwest Angle bemoan law denying other Americans access

The Northwest Angle is part of Minnesota, but the only road to it passes through Manitoba. The rest of Minnesota is on the other side of a lake. The 120 residents depend on the tourism business, based mainly on sport fishing. As sport fishing is not considered essential business, American tourists cannot cross the Canadian border to get to it.

Residents and Minnesota congressmen have been pleading with Canada to let Americans pass through, but Ottawa has been ignoring them. Polls in Canada show that Canadians view Americans as being unwanted at this time, and there have been too many negative press stories about Americans abusing transit privileges to and from Alaska.
 
The Canadian government announced plans to buy 75 million doses of a vaccine to be made in Canada.
Trudeau announces plan to purchase 76 million doses of Canadian-made COVID-19 vaccine

The vaccine is being developed by a Canadian company called Medicago in partnership with UK pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline.

The vaccine will be made in a new plant to be built by Medicago in Quebec, which will be capable of making 100 million doses in 2021.
Trudeau said the government has signed a contract to procure 76 million doses from the Quebec City-biotech company Medicago.

Medicago is developing the vaccine in partnership with the British drug company GlaxoSmithKline. The two companies have said its pre-clinical results show the vaccine demonstrated a "high level of neutralizing antibodies following a single dose."

If the vaccine also performs well in a clinical setting, the companies are on track to make it available in the first half of 2021. Medicago has said it has the manufacturing capacity to produce as many as 100 million doses in 2021.

Medicago have been given a contract for $173 million to develop the vaccine and to build the new plant to produce it. Another company, in Vancouver, have been given $18.2 million to produce another vaccine.
The federal government is spending $173 million to help Medicago develop the vaccine and build a large plant in Quebec to produce it. Trudeau also announced an $18.2 million investment in Vancouver-based Precision NanoSystems, which offers technology to produce vaccines and therapeutic drugs.

Canada has signed 5 other contracts with companies such as AstraZeneca, Moderna and Pfizer for other vaccine varieties. The government are ordering multiple different vaccines to be sure of having a supply if some of them don't work out.

Health care workers and people living in care homes will have first priority on any vaccines.
Trudeau said he's hopeful that vaccines can be deployed in the early part of 2021. He said that, to start, front line health care workers and vulnerable populations, such as seniors living in long-term care homes, will have priority access.

The story also discusses the purchase of rapid tests which I won't go into detail on here, but I will quote a few numbers on test accuracy as that was recently discussed on this thread.

Regular PCR tests are close to 100% accurate if done properly, but they take time to do and can be a bottleneck.

Rapid tests however are less accurate. The Panbio test mentioned in the story is 93.3 percent accurate. This means that 6.7 percent of people who were infected and experiencing symptoms over the previous 7 days will test negative when they were in fact positive.

This would appear to limit the usefulness of rapid tests to situations where it was not critical for the results to be correct.
 

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