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MERS Coronavirus warning

JCC

War Hero
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I spotted that on Guido last night but couldn't find it to post this morning.
But its all down to the 3 week lag.
Every 3-4 weeks it doubles.
I think you'll find in 4 weeks it'll have doubled, ok 6 weeks then.
 
Bootiful


Corvid has hit the Turkey plant in Suffolk (one of many food processing plants lately ) ..begs the question has there been any cases in months ago, as a result of it being in food.

cheers
 

crow_bag

Old-Salt
Bootiful


Corvid has hit the Turkey plant in Suffolk (one of many food processing plants lately ) ..begs the question has there been any cases in months ago, as a result of it being in food.

cheers
I imagine there is more risk of catching it from the packaging than the food, especially after it has been processed and then cooked before being eaten.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 
I think we both have brains and are happy to question the lies we are fed.
 
it’s almost as if the new restrictions are working!
And much faster than the 3/4/6 week lag so that means they can be lifted at once.
Job very much jobbed then.
Hurrah.
 
Well the students who of course know everything are all up in arms over the rules on universities and I've seen people bleating on Twitter that there will soon be a mob insurrection across the country if the government dares to enforce the restrictions. I want to get back to normal jogging as much as anyone but get the impression most of those under 30 are happy to throw their older or vulnerable relatives under a bus just so they can go out on the piss unhindered.
 
I'd imagine there's many >30s fearing for their jobs and futures too.

I'd imagine there is, but the majority seem to be under the impression that the government are using this to make the restrictions permanent to "control" them and steal their liberties forever to some unknown end. I'm pretty sure the government would rather Covid fecked off as much as the rest of us so they can go back to baying like monkeys in a packed out parliament.
 
I'd imagine there is, but the majority seem to be under the impression that the government are using this to make the restrictions permanent to "control" them and steal their liberties forever to some unknown end. I'm pretty sure the government would rather Covid fecked off as much as the rest of us so they can go back to baying like monkeys in a packed out parliament.

If my gym's anything to go by they're not feeling that 'controlled', they're just doing their own thing.

There's no social distancing; they're just in from work and doing the stuff they'd normally do in the gym. All the signs saying 'Covid - Machine Not In Use', which allow for better social distancing are just removed and put back when they've finished.

Gym staff aren't arsed.

Wor Lass is not long back from a run, she tells me there's a massive pack of kids down by the skate park.

It looks like herd immunity might be here quicker than expected.
 
And on the lighter side of things, a town in Romania re-elected their mayor despite his having died of COVID-19 two weeks ago. They thought he had done such a good job of running the town that he deserved re-election. He got 64% of the vote.
Romanian town re-elects mayor who died of COVID-19 earlier this month
Residents of Deveselu, a village of around 3,000 people in southern Romania, have re-elected their mayor by a landslide even though he died two weeks ago from COVID-19 complications, saying he had done a good job and deserved his posthumous victory.

A video shared on social media showed dozens of villagers visiting the grave of Ion Aliman, a Social Democrat, to light candles after voting had ended in Sunday's local elections.

"It is your victory," one man can be heard saying. "Know that you will be proud of us. Rest in peace."

Aliman won his third term as mayor of Deveselu, with 64 per cent of the vote, electoral bureau data showed on Monday.

"He was a real mayor to us," one woman who wore a surgical mask told private television station ProTV in Deveselu. "He took the side of the village, respected all the laws. I don't think we will see a mayor like him again."
 
And here's the COVID-19 summary for Tuesday.
Coronavirus: What's happening in Canada and around the world on Tuesday

The world hit a new milestone as more than one million people have died from COVID-19.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the global total of confirmed coronavirus cases stands at more than 33.2 million, while over 22.9 million have recovered.

The worldwide death toll from the coronavirus has eclipsed one million, nine months into a crisis that has devastated the global economy, tested world leaders' resolve, pitted science against politics and forced multitudes to change the way they live, learn and work.

In Alberta Canada, an outbreak at a hospital in Calgary has force the cancellation of surgeries and required visiting restrictions. Twenty six patients and twenty seven staff have confirmed infections, and more than 100 staff are in isolation. Four patients have died.
In Alberta, where cases have also been rising, the provincial government postponed dozens of surgeries and imposed visiting restrictions at a Calgary hospital because of an outbreak. Twenty-six patients and 27 staff have confirmed infections, and more than 100 staffers are in isolation. Four patients have died.

It's worth recalling that hospitals are a high risk zone for the spread of infections of all sorts.

Also in Alberta, the head of health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw said that herd immunity is not a practical strategy for combatting COVID-19. Herd immunity would require 50 to 70 percent of the public to have become immune as a result of infection, while studies have shown that only one percent or less of the public in Canada have been infected.
Waiting for the public to develop "herd immunity" to COVID-19 is not a practical strategy to fight the pandemic, would put many lives at risk and possibly overload the health-care system, Alberta's top doctor says. (...)

For COVID-19, estimates of that percentage range from 50 to 70 per cent of the population, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, said Monday at a news conference. Studies in Canada, she said, have estimated that only about one per cent or less of the population has been infected.

Colombia will extend selected control measures through October.
Colombia will extend selective quarantines for the duration of October, President Ivan Duque said in a nightly address on Monday, and urged citizens to avoid meeting in large groups.

The country began more than five months of lockdown in March. It entered a much-looser "selective" quarantine phase — allowing dining at restaurants and international flights — at the start of September.

Colombia has reported 818,203 infections of the novel coronavirus, as well as 25,641 deaths.

Mexico has reported the 733,717 case as of Monday, and 76,603 tests. India have reported more than 6 million cases and 95,542 deaths. For both countries the true numbers are certainly much higher as testing is limited.
Mexico's confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 733,717 on Monday, according to updated data from the health ministry, along with a total reported death toll of 76,603.

Authorities reported 3,400 new cases along with 173 deaths on Monday, but the true figures are likely significantly higher because of little testing.

On Monday, India hit more than six million confirmed cases of coronavirus in the country and the death toll reached 95,542 with 1,039 more deaths added. There are currently 962,640 active cases of the virus according to government data.
 
Ontario's current wave of COVID-19 infection is expected to peak on October.
Ontario's 2nd wave of COVID-19 forecast to peak in October

Researchers have outlined four scenarios on how the second wave will play out here. I should point out that these scenarios are for planning purposes rather than saying that there are only four possible paths the pandemic could follow.

Best case scenario is where it follows the same path as in Ontario during March and April, where numbers rose rapidly but then also fell rapidly after a lockdown.
The best-case scenario would mimic Ontario's first wave in March and April, when case numbers increased rapidly but were then reined in by a lockdown.

In the two medium cases the second wave resembles what happened in Melbourne Australia or Michigan US.
Two moderate scenarios would resemble how a second wave hit jurisdictions comparable to Ontario: the Australian state of Victoria (home to Melbourne, a city of five million), and the U.S. state of Michigan.

The worst case scenario is a second wave which resembles the first wave seen in Italy.
... the modellers' worst-case scenario: a second wave as severe as the first wave that hit Italy when the pandemic began.


Under the best case scenario ICU capacity is not pressed to the point where normal surgeries need to be cancelled.

Under the medium scenarios, ICU capacity is pushed to the point where surgeries, including high risk cancer surgeries, have to be postponed.

The consequences of the worst case scenario were not detailed.

They mention that the second wave in Spain and France started among younger age groups but spread to the elderly. The said that this seems to be happening in Ontario as well.
"The second wave in Spain and France started in the younger populations, but it is spreading to the elderly and the people who are more at risk of ending up in the intensive care unit or in the hospitals," said Barrett in an interview with CBC News.

"It is just a matter of time until this virus, if it's affecting the young populations, spreads into the elderly population," she said. "We're already starting to see that happening in Ontario."

The number of people age 70 or over in Ontario with an active case of COVID-19 is now 227, an increase of 34 percent in one week.
The latest figures from the province's Ministry of Health show 227 people aged 70 or older with an active confirmed case of COVID-19. That number has increased 34 per cent in the space of a week.

Ontario has roughly 2,000 ICU beds, and more are being added. Typically 2/3rds are occupied by people who have nothing to do with COVID-19. Taking in to account that ICUs can't actually operate at 100% of capacity, if only 100 people with COVID-19 require ICU care this competes with other uses, such as scheduled (non-emergency) surgery.
Ontario has around 2,000 intensive care beds, and the province plans to add 139 in October. The province's ICU beds are typically two-thirds occupied by patients whose cases have nothing to do with COVID-19, whether it's a heart attack, car accident, or another critical illness.

Since ICUs can't actually function at 100 per cent occupancy full time, the researchers calculate that Ontario has around 475 beds available for non-emergency surgery patients and COVID patients. When scheduled surgeries are running at full pace, those patients take up all but 100 of those beds.

Their conclusion: if more than 100 people with COVID-19 need ICU care, they'd be competing for space with scheduled surgery cases.

"Then we would have to make decisions in terms of who to treat," said Sander. "Do we admit COVID patients or do we do (non-emergency) surgery?"

So, if Ontario's second wave follows the Melbourne scenario, 350 to 400 COVID-19 cases will require ICU beds at the peak in late October.
The projections suggest if Ontario's second wave follows what happened in the Australian state of Victoria — a sharp spike in new infections that drops off quickly after a strict lockdown — some 350 to 400 people will need an ICU bed at peak demand in late October.

If it follows the Michigan scenario, peak demand for ICU beds will be more than 200, but the demand will be extended over a longer period of time than in Melbourne.
If the second wave in this province plays out as Michigan's did — a rise in new infections that levels off but doesn't slow down for a long time — the forecast is for more than 200 patients with COVID-19 in the ICUs from late October onwards.

There are currently 28 COVID-19 cases in ICU in Ontario at present.
Figures published Sunday by the Ministry of Health show 28 ICU patients with a confirmed case of COVID-19.

In the first wave demand peaked at 264 ICU beds.
In Ontario's first wave, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU peaked at 264, while the number of people in hospital at one time peaked at 1,043. Non-emergency surgeries were postponed across the province.

ICU occupancy rate is more important than general hospitalisation rates because it is easier to free up or expand general hospital beds than it is ICU beds.
The modellers say ICU occupancy numbers will be of more critical concern than total hospitalization numbers because Ontario's hospital system can far more easily free up general ward beds than it can make space in intensive care.

The issue is not so much beds and ventilators as it is trained and experience staff. The latter aren't something that can be expanded at short notice.
That's less about the available beds and ventilators, and more about the having enough doctors and nurses capable of the specialized care that ICU patients need.

"You can't just train people overnight to do this type of thing," said Sander. "You can buy a lot of beds and you can buy a lot of ventilators, but you can't get these highly qualified staff on the ground within a very short period of time."

The effects on staff are another bottleneck in a second wave. Many of the people working in hospitals have children. A widespread outbreak among younger age groups will result in them bringing their infections home and giving it to their parents, causing serious staff shortages in hospitals at a time when they're already under stress due to staff limitations.
Barrett agrees that human resources are the key limiting factor, and is concerned about how the second wave could hit hospital staff and their families.

"The majority of people working in hospitals are in their 30s, 40s and 50s, so many of them have children who go to school," she said. "If there is a massive outbreak amongst the younger population and school children, that's a whole sector of our health workforce that won't be able to come to work."
 

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