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MERS Coronavirus warning

The town of Port Roberts US is a small town on the end of a peninsula just south of Vancouver BC. When the border was drawn as a straight line, the tip of the peninsula ended up in the US. It's only road connections lie through Canada. It has existed as a tourist destination for people in Vancouver. With the border closed however, its economy has nothing to sustain it and has pretty well collapsed.
The birth of a ghost town: Point Roberts has lost 80% of its business, hundreds of its residents

'When you walk down [the main street] today, you see nobody and I'm not kidding, nobody," said Brian Calder, director of the Point Roberts Chamber of Commerce. "It's a ghost town."

(...) But now, he said Point Roberts is on the brink of collapse, having lost more than 80 per cent of its business, all from Canadians, according to the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University.

The town may not recover after the border is re-opened, as their traditional clientele may not return if they have gotten used to going elsewhere.
Even if the borders were to reopen tomorrow, Calder believes the damage has been irreparable and he can't envision a road to recovery.

After all, Point Roberts is a summer town built on tradition, he said. Year-after-year, families return to Point Roberts as they have done for generations.

"That's gone and I don't think half of it's coming back because we've broken the tradition," said Calder. "If there is a light at the end of the tunnel, it's like a coal train coming at you. It ain't pretty at all."
 
And as soon as the restrictions are lifted it'll slowly rise again before exploding. It's not like the virus is just going to fcuk off. This is the balance that governments are faced with..how far do you go with restrictions to contain the virus and protect lives and health services versus peoples freedom and the economies.

I certainly wouldn't fancy being a decision maker at the minute. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

But that's the rub when you're selling a pyramid scheme.
R rate, exponential growth, 'following the [brand of] science [we agree with]' and all such nonsense don't take into account all the dead ends that any virus will hit and they will be growing at the same rate. Or faster for the likes of Farmer Jones at the top of the valley who only goes to town once a fortnight and never sees anyone, but was unlucky enough to catch it last time he went to town.
 

exsniffer

Old-Salt
I do not think the country can support the cost of a second complete lock down.
I found this article interesting. It suggests that whether or not to lock down should be a matter of personal choice with each individual deciding how much risk from the virus he is willing to accept. Those who choose to lock down should be supported by Disabled Living allowance whilst the rest crack on with keeping the economy afloat

 
And as soon as the restrictions are lifted it'll slowly rise again before exploding. It's not like the virus is just going to fcuk off. This is the balance that governments are faced with..how far do you go with restrictions to contain the virus and protect lives and health services versus peoples freedom and the economies.

Prof Giesecke spoke about this in an interview with UnHerd back in April. He said the UK started off correctly and then the ICL report was published and we knee-jerked.

He asks "How are you going to climb down?" He goes onto say "You will have to ease restrictions one-by-one and see what happens - ooh ooh - we need to reimpose that one".

We need a policy which minimises the deaths, but is sustainable for the long term.

Anyone any idea when the vaccine roll-out is going to happen? Next spring? Summer?
 
Prof Giesecke spoke about this in an interview with UnHerd back in April. He said the UK started off correctly and then the ICL report was published and we knee-jerked.

He asks "How are you going to climb down?" He goes onto say "You will have to ease restrictions one-by-one and see what happens - ooh ooh - we need to reimpose that one".

We need a policy which minimises the deaths, but is sustainable for the long term.

Anyone any idea when the vaccine roll-out is going to happen? Next spring? Summer?

"Challenge trials" are scheduled to begin in January at the Royal Free Hospital in London, patients will be inoculated with a vaccine developed by Imperial College, and then exposed to coronavirus.

Oxford University is also intending to use a similar "challenge trial" to test whether people have protective immunity from the disease if they have been previously infected.

Both groups of researchers are currently hunting for a "salvage therapy" that would be given as a last resort if the vaccine did not work before they can begin the trials and will need approval.
 

This guy doesn't understand statistics either. Or even how research works, as generally the large groups conducting the research on these topics will have statisticians performing the analysis, whilst the good studies would have pre-registered which involves laying out the planned analysis too. And no idea why he's banging on about t-tests or p-values as it's clear he doesn't really understand either.

Edit: Oh I see why - he's asking for donations.
 
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JCC

War Hero
This guy doesn't understand statistics either. Or even how research works, as generally the large groups conducting the research on these topics will have statisticians performing the analysis. And no idea why he's banging on about t-tests or p-values as it's clear he doesn't really understand either.

Edit: Oh I see why - he's asking for donations.


I think what I took out of an article by a journalist was information that pointed towards:-

 
Professor Gupta pointed out on Question Time that we don't lock down for the flu, or other viruses, which also have long term consequences for the young.

It's like it's a massive over-reaction, far disproportionate to the risks, and will have far-reaching consequences for the majority of the kids.

We have a vaccine for influenza. And for other viruses - when measles was endemic before vaccines and in outbreaks quarantines were regularly imposed. Public health measures were imposed for other outbreaks before vaccines were available for them.

Covid 19 is far more serious than influenza - the science is very clear on this and in the public domain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
We have a vaccine for influenza. And for other viruses - when measles was endemic before vaccines and in outbreaks quarantines were regularly imposed. Public health measures were imposed for other outbreaks before vaccines were available for them.

Covid 19 is far more serious than influenza - the science is very clear on this and in the public domain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Except when an ineffective flu vaccine in 2017/18 resulted in 50k non serious deaths?
 
Prof Giesecke spoke about this in an interview with UnHerd back in April. He said the UK started off correctly and then the ICL report was published and we knee-jerked.

He asks "How are you going to climb down?" He goes onto say "You will have to ease restrictions one-by-one and see what happens - ooh ooh - we need to reimpose that one".

We need a policy which minimises the deaths, but is sustainable for the long term.

Anyone any idea when the vaccine roll-out is going to happen? Next spring? Summer?
One of the SAGE scientists claimed yesterday that there'll most probably be a 3rd wave and he's not banking on a vaccine anytime soon.

Survival of the fittest unfortunately looks to be the way forward.
 
Except when an ineffective flu vaccine in 2017/18 resulted in 50k non serious deaths?
Do we lockdown every Winter then on the chance that the vaccine doesn't work for Influenza?
 
"Challenge trials" are scheduled to begin in January at the Royal Free Hospital in London, patients will be inoculated with a vaccine developed by Imperial College, and then exposed to coronavirus.

Oxford University is also intending to use a similar "challenge trial" to test whether people have protective immunity from the disease if they have been previously infected.

Both groups of researchers are currently hunting for a "salvage therapy" that would be given as a last resort if the vaccine did not work before they can begin the trials and will need approval.

Yes, I read about the challenge trials; they want young, healthy volunteers.

These people are not at risk of the corona.

I understand there'll be a complex process far beyond my understanding, but until they start testing it on the over 70s, I suspect from the little I know, we're not very close to something approaching a solution.
 
We have a vaccine for influenza. And for other viruses - when measles was endemic before vaccines and in outbreaks quarantines were regularly imposed. Public health measures were imposed for other outbreaks before vaccines were available for them.

And if you wanted to immigrate to the USA you'd have to spend time on a quarantine island before they'd let you on the mainland.

Not sure how this is relevant to the discussion of a long term strategy in the absence of a vaccine in the near future.


Covid 19 is far more serious than influenza - the science is very clear on this and in the public domain.

That all depends. If you're young, it's not a threat at all; flu is more dangerous. The average age of covid deaths is someone in their 80s.
 
As said before, Spain doesn't give figures over a weekend as it's difficult to ensure the correct data is being collected. It usually comes as a bit of a shock when the Monday figures are released but the new cases recorded since Friday at 31,758 does stagger one a bit.

Deaths since Friday have numbered another 179 which makes it 359 over the last 7 days.
 
As said before, Spain doesn't give figures over a weekend as it's difficult to ensure the correct data is being collected. It usually comes as a bit of a shock when the Monday figures are released but the new cases recorded since Friday at 31,758 does stagger one a bit.

Deaths since Friday have numbered another 179 which makes it 359 over the last 7 days.
Looks like Spain is having a rough time again.
Difficult here to get accurate figures over the weekend & Monday.
A truer picture is at least Tuesday.
 
Do we lockdown every Winter then on the chance that the vaccine doesn't work for Influenza?
Weird, eh.
Its as though we know it happens and that destroying everything else to protect the few would be counter productive?
 
Weird, eh.
Its as though we know it happens and that destroying everything else to protect the few would be counter productive?
It also suggests there is an acceptance of risk and individuals take whatever measures they feel are appropriate.
 

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