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MERS Coronavirus warning

How do you explain the increasing new infections then. As I said, it's defined as exponential if it's above 1.

I've explained the increase in new infections. They will increase, they will kill more people; the virus is now endemic and seasonal, just the flu. Have a google for Prof Heneghan; he'll explain it better than I.

We won't see anything like we saw in spring though.

We already accept tens-of-thousands of flu deaths.
 
As I said, it's defined as exponential if it's above 1.

When hospital admissions start doubling every several days, that matters. Test numbers not so much.

From the BBC:

1a.jpg


 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
Here's a link to the NCSC's (National Cyber Security Centre's) information on the security of the Track and Trace application.


Wordsmith
 
That’s pretty much my thoughts - evidence not there to rely on heard immunity; cannot destroy the economy because who wants to be alive, but live in a world resembling Mad Max; vaccinations not sure about!

Basically I think we’re going to have to weather this thing as best we can, whilst taking sensible damage limiting precautions such as isolating when sick, social distancing etc, and deal with, and accept, the fallout however unpleasant it may be.

Thanks for the reply and taking it as intended.
:)
Blurp seems to have seen his arse about it for some reason??
 
Here's a link to the NCSC's (National Cyber Security Centre's) information on the security of the Track and Trace application.


Wordsmith
I am not allowed to have it on my work phone nor if I had it on my own phone can I carry it with me due to concerns about my movements 'being tracked'.

Yes that's what it is, nothing else.

It is not at all because the Bosses (who bravely ran home to cower under their tables at the start when we really didn't know how bad it was going to be - they were too important to be exposed) think we're thick and know that as we do deal with the plague carrying public an awful lot of Police will be told to stay at home on full pay with 0 sick days.

That was one real positive about the early days of the lockdown. They stopped sending pointless emails about how important they are and we could crack on.
 

oldbaldy

LE
Moderator
Here's a link to the NCSC's (National Cyber Security Centre's) information on the security of the Track and Trace application.


Wordsmith
I asked my 18 year old granddaughter of she would be downloading it, the answer was on the lines of 'no chance'!
 
I asked my 18 year old granddaughter of she would be downloading it, the answer was on the lines of 'no chance'!

I won't be downloading it as my 'phone is ancient. I only use it for emergencies and I think it works by clockwork. I have to admit that I do not know anyone who has started using this app.

I will be rapidly told if I need to self isolate, I think.
 

oldbaldy

LE
Moderator
I won't be downloading it as my 'phone is ancient. I only use it for emergencies and I think it works by clockwork. I have to admit that I do not know anyone who has started using this app.

I will be rapidly told if I need to self isolate, I think.
Granddaughter had a new iphone earlier this week, she's lucky in that she had her A levels this year, didn't want to go to Uni & has a job, which she enjoys. She still won't download though!
 
The opinion world wide has been nearly universal that serious measures are needed to control the virus. Countries such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and others jumped on the problem right away and didn't let it get out of hand. Other countries didn't react until it was too late to do anything other than lockdown for a few weeks.

I don't know of any country however that hasn't seen a serious economic impact from the pandemic. There's no "choice" between economic damage and death. It's a choice between economic damage and large numbers of deaths or economic damage and small numbers of deaths.
Not from the UK stats I have seen. There is no reason why the population under 50 can't go about their lives as normal.

Also, what I'm getting from your posts is that whatever happens over the next few months is proof that your position is right. Lots of deaths = we should have had more stringent measures. Few deaths = proof the measures imposed worked.

I'm not accusing you of being a conspiracy theorist but that's what this has reminded me of, a conversation with a family member about September the 11th who was convinced that Bush and the CIA had done it as an inside job. Evidence supporting their idea was accepted at face value and evidence disproving their idea was actually evidence of just how far the conspiracy went to fake it.
 
Popped in to the pub after work for a quick Friday pint and a natter. That was a mistake.

Multiple bouncers on the door at just gone 5pm (although I suppose it is a Friday night). Required to complete the registration information before being allowed in, then shown to a table by one of the door staff. Masks on inside unless actually sat down at a table. Table service only to order, then escorted up to the till to pay and then back to seat and wait for drinks to be delivered.

It was more stressful than being sat in the staff room and we reckoned it would have been better to have a brew after work and then go straight home. Plenty of young ones getting steadily hammered, I wouldn't fancy being in there when they call time.

The kebab shop will do a roaring trade tonight though.
 
Popped in to the pub after work for a quick Friday pint and a natter. That was a mistake.

Multiple bouncers on the door at just gone 5pm (although I suppose it is a Friday night). Required to complete the registration information before being allowed in, then shown to a table by one of the door staff. Masks on inside unless actually sat down at a table. Table service only to order, then escorted up to the till to pay and then back to seat and wait for drinks to be delivered.

It was more stressful than being sat in the staff room and we reckoned it would have been better to have a brew after work and then go straight home. Plenty of young ones getting steadily hammered, I wouldn't fancy being in there when they call time.

The kebab shop will do a roaring trade tonight though.

Depressing. May as well stay home.
 
Depressing. May as well stay home.
Our thoughts exactly. The only people who should be in there are the 18-22 year olds who don't have a mate's gaff to invade. Everyone else should have bought a crate and nominated someone's sofa as the designated pub for the evening. £18 gets a crate of lager or 5 pints in the pub, plus no masks, a bit of a no brainer.

Top marks to the young bloke behind us who was chatting up a lass by claiming to be a COVID inspector and claiming he had the power to shut down any school or work premises in the area.
 
Lots of deaths = we should have had more stringent measures. Few deaths = proof the measures imposed worked.

I think that the discussion in this thread has become a little polarised, at least on the face of it.

Fewer deaths are a result almost certainly of improved medical practice and treatments but also with the addendum that a lot of the most vulnerable have been killed. It is unlikely that the pathogen has become less virulent. R0 was reduced by the lockdown to below maintenance level. That is generally accepted.

From there, there has been a failure in some to see the new emergence now of lag phase into log phase as a result of R0 going above 1.* In addition, there has been a failure to accept that the vulnerable is not merely the elderly but includes a wide range of co morbid persons ranging from type 2 diabetes to immuno suppressed but also likely hyper immuno responsive like the allergic.

Whilst I cannot speak for others, the flattening of the curve really did work and it is likely that there will be a second tranche of deaths if the virus is not controlled. However, I am not one to support overly strict state control and would not imply that more stringent controls would necessarily work ( they wouldn't. Part human nature. Part the way in which viruses spread).

All I would ask is that the current levels of restriction be obeyed. Sadly, I do not think they will be.

* Whether locally or nation wide although policy is now targeting local levels of R0.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
2,000 Covid deaths in Wales since April.

NHS Nurse whose husband nearly died: 'Please stop and think '
 

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