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MERS Coronavirus warning

The most likely reason for a greater proportion of black and Asian people being infected than white people would be that a greater proportion of the former live in densely populated urban areas where the virus can more easily spread.

Which would have been a great answer if the graph from the ONS was showing infections, unfortunately it is showing deaths.

Those figures are also from early in the pandemic, when infection was mainly in a few large cities, again with a high minority population.

The UK population is very roughly split between 85% urban living and 15% rural living.

With the best will in the world, and whilst it may appear that some UK Cities have high BAME populations, I refuse to believe that any city in the UK has a BAME population that is 4 - 5 higher than a white population.

823.jpg

I'm afraid that your likely reason does not hold much water for me and there must be other reasons / factors for the numbers in the above ONS graph.
 
Which would have been a great answer if the graph from the ONS was showing infections, unfortunately it is showing deaths.
Areas with more infections will see more deaths.

The UK population is very roughly split between 85% urban living and 15% rural living.

With the best will in the world, and whilst it may appear that some UK Cities have high BAME populations, I refuse to believe that any city in the UK has a BAME population that is 4 - 5 higher than a white population.

View attachment 507067

I'm afraid that your likely reason does not hold much water for me and there must be other reasons / factors for the numbers in the above ONS graph.
There's urban areas and then there's urban areas. Densely packed areas, areas where people use public transit extensively, areas which see a lot of travellers passing through, areas where a lot of the people work in hospitals and shops, areas where housing is especially expensive compared to income, etc., are more conducive to transmitting the virus than the suburbs.

People looking to blame "racism" for certain ethnic groups having a higher rate of death than others are barking up the wrong tree when there well known risk factors which happen to coincide with population patterns and which have nothing to do with "racism".
 
This is something else that's been bugging me. If there is a massive increase in deaths between now and February I will happily hold my hands up and admit I got it wrong. I get the feeling that if there is a massive spike in deaths you will (justifiably) say "I told you so" but if nothing much happens you will argue that it was the policies put in place that prevented those deaths.

Basically, I get the feeling that you and several other people on here are arguing a 'heads I win, tails you lose' situation. Is there anything that will make you change your mind and accept that COVID isn't as dangerous as you currently think?
We don't have to look into the future to see what happens when control measures are largely abandoned. We just have to look at South America where infections and deaths skyrocketed when they decided that enough was enough and gave up trying. Peru is a good example to look at.

Public health officials have been saying for well over a month that they expected infection rates would rise when the autumn arrived, kids went back to school, and people started moving around an interacting more.

However, the public health officials where I am have been saying that they think we can keep it under control, but it will be a constant battle over the winter, testing, tracking, tracing, and dialling control measures up and down as required.

We were supposed to have been spending the summer getting ready for this. Now we'll find out if our preparations were adequate.
 
Not as ridiculous as it sounds. If a child has symptoms that indicate possible COVID-19 infection (dry cough, high temperature etc.) then said child should stay at home and have a COVID test. If test is positive then a large number of children should be sent home from school.

It's a choice between testing young ones with possible COVID symptoms and keeping the majority of kids in school or not testing them and sending huge chunks of the school population home for 2 weeks on the grounds that someone might have COVID. Then everyone in the family of those kids kept home from school also get 14 days quarantine with impact on jobs etc. The testing is the better option in my opinion.

Edit - just for a sense of scale, I don't think my current place has had fewer than 8 kids off per day with potential COVID infections and waiting for a test. Plus the first month or so is sniffles time as the little horrors all come back with a variety of colds that spread like wildfire.
It's important to keep school infections under control not just to keep the kids from spreading it to each other, but also to keep them from spreading it to the teachers. No teachers, no school.
 
Areas with more infections will see more deaths.

Absolutely. That is not in dispute.

People looking to blame "racism" for certain ethnic groups having a higher rate of death than others are barking up the wrong tree

Absolutely - And if you think I was alluding to racism, it is you that is barking up the wrong tree. Have a scan through the BBC or Guardian to see where the racism aspect is coming from.

What I was alluding to, using the ONS graph...

823.jpg

... is that there must be reasons / factors for those figures in the graph, that have nothing to do with racism or density of population.

  • Genetics
  • Obesity levels
  • Any others that we cannot talk about because of '' racism ''
 
Here's the COVID-19 summary for Thursday.
Coronavirus: What's happening in Canada and around the world on Thursday

Currently there have been more than 32 million infections around the world, and more than 979,000 deaths.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the global total of confirmed coronavirus cases stands at more than 32 million. More than 979,000 people have died, while over 22 million have recovered.

In the EU, officials are urging member states to slow the spread of infection in order to avoid another lockdown. Some countries are reporting more cases now than the did during the peak earlier in the year. I will add that the two sets of numbers are not strictly comparable due to testing being more available for low priority cases now.
European Union officials urged member nations Thursday to move quickly to slow the latest wave of COVID-19 infections to avoid a repeat of the broad lockdowns that paralyzed the continent's economy in the spring.

EU health commissioner Stella Kyriakides said the most recent risk assessment showed that some countries are reporting more cases now than they did during the pandemic's earlier peak in Europe.

"We are at a decisive moment. All member states must be ready to roll out control measures, immediately and at the right time, at the very first sign of potential new outbreaks," Kyriakides said. "This might be our last chance to prevent a repeat of last spring."

In Switzerland, health officials ordered a quarantine for all 2,500 students at a Swiss school of hospitality, the Ecole Hoteliere de Lausanne, also known as the Lausanne Hospitality Management University. Apparently the outbreak is due to partying by students.
Swiss health authorities have ordered a quarantine for 2,500 students at a prestigious hospitality management school in the city of Lausanne after "significant outbreaks" of COVID-19 that are a suspected by-product of off-campus partying.

Authorities in Switzerland's Vaud canton, or region, said all undergraduates at the Ecole Hoteliere de Lausanne, known as the Lausanne Hospitality Management University in English, have been ordered to quarantine both on- and off-campus because the number of outbreaks "made a more targeted closure impossible."

India reported more than 86,000 new cases today, as well as 1,129 new deaths. They currently have recorded 5.7 million cases and 91,149 deaths in total.
India reported another 86,508 new coronavirus cases, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees little merit in imposing even short local lockdowns.

India now has confirmed more than 5.7 million cases, the second-most in the world. The country's health ministry also said Thursday that 1,129 more people have died, for a total of 91,149.

In my opinion India seems to be the current centre of infection globally.

In China, foreigners with certain types of visa and residence permits will be allowed to return to China starting next week.
Foreigners holding certain types of visas and residence permits will be permitted to return to China starting next week as the threat of coronavirus continues to recede.

The new regulation lifts a months-long blanket suspension covering most foreigners apart from diplomats and those in special circumstances.

In France, the number of people in ICU for COVID-19 has exceeded 1,000 for the first time since early June. Overall hospitalisations for COVID-19 have increased as well to 5,932.
The French health ministry reported on Thursday that the number of people in intensive care because of the coronavirus jumped to over 1,000 for the first time since June 8.

The ministry also said that the number of people with COVID-19 in hospital was up by 136 to 5,932.

New cases in the Netherlands hit a new record of 2,544, and the total cases count has passed 100,000.
The number of coronavirus infections in the Netherlands hit a daily record at 2,544 on Thursday, data released by health authorities showed.

Coronavirus infections in the country have reached record levels almost every day since mid-September. The previous high of 2,357 was reported on Wednesday, when the total number of reported cases passed 100,000.

The US have published a report which said that infections in young adults has caused a surge that has now spilled over into the older population. Outbreaks in the US were associated with gatherings as parties and bars and then spread to the older population when the younger ones came in contact with them.
In the United States, a new report published Wednesday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that young adults who became infected with COVID-19 caused a surge that has now cascaded over to older populations.

Outbreaks in the U.S. that were traced to gatherings at bars and parties eventually impacted older people who came into contact with the younger cases, the report shows.
 
(...) Absolutely - And if you think I was alluding to racism, it is you that is barking up the wrong tree. Have a scan through the BBC or Guardian to see where the racism aspect is coming from.
I didn't think that you were citing racism, but rather I was pointing out that there are well known geographic factors which may adequately explain higher rates of infection and deaths.

In a subsequent post you quoted the following news and I was responding as much to this as the earlier post:
A race equality action plan designed to tackle the “structural and systemic racism” found to have contributed to the high Covid death rate among black, Asian and minority ethnic people in Wales is under way and will be complete early next year.

I just wrote a detailed response to the Guarding article itself. On reviewing it however, I erased it as pointless. It's a Guardian article and they probably made a complete dog's breakfast out of the story trying to fit it into one of their preconceived Guardian templates.

I'll just summarise what I was going to say as in my opinion they didn't adequately account for geographic factors in infection and death rates, as some of the things they cited as being not explained by geography were in fact additional geographic factors, which sort of blows a hole in their argument. Recall that geography includes man made features, not just natural ones.

What I was alluding to, using the ONS graph...

View attachment 507070

... is that there must be reasons / factors for those figures in the graph, that have nothing to do with racism or density of population.

  • Genetics
  • Obesity levels
  • Any others that we cannot talk about because of '' racism ''
I am speculating, but I suspect that genetics will have few if any measurable effect on deaths in this case.

As well as the very obvious geographic factors, cultural and dietary factors, resulting in obesity (which you mentioned) and poorly controlled diabetes, as well as multi-generational families, are more likely to be significant than genetics.
 
...there must be reasons / factors for those figures in the graph, that have nothing to do with racism or density of population.

  • Genetics
  • Obesity levels
  • Any others that we cannot talk about because of '' racism ''

Culture. Some folks think The Man's rules shouldn't apply to them and pay no attention. Throw in a culture where personal space is nothing like the western idea of an exclusion zone around yourself where strangers don't cosy up to you.

Queueing in Africa and the subcontinent is an education when you have complete strangers pretty much leaning on you, or will hold your hand while talking into your face at a distance of four inches. Add to that extended family groups all living in the same location and kids raised by whichever adult is home that day, often grandparents.

Basic hygiene is a foreign concept among recent arrivals. They were never taught it in the drier countries because direct sunlight and heat took care of most of the nasties, and water was usually in short supply and difficult to access. A cooler damp environment where things fester and grow in corners is something new. Mingling with more established immigrants and those of the same culture who have been there for a while will spread infections more readily among those groups.
 
Which naturally means they are then spreading it to their family members - which is the point about why some think we cannot just shield our elderly because it will find a way of getting to them. Although as said before - and seems to be ignored by a lot of people who - evidence that we should be wary of Long COVID.

Although it's good to see the problems from exposure in survivors are starting to be discussed in the media - it's never made much sense to me to discuss this thing in binary terms of life/death: Beware comforting lies about a 'herd immunity' Covid-19 strategy. Here's why it's dangerous – Professor Devi Sridhar
And that's with full lockdown implemented and single digit infection rates in the population.
Although I'm not convinced the evidence is there for herd immunity - I'm also not keen on destroying our economy with lockdown either.

Oh your just confusing me now.
Your agreeing that the lockdowns are urinating into a gale as a method of prevention.
Don't think herd immunity works.
Weren't you 'Go vaccine' before as well or am I confusing you with someone else?
And if so, Jesus why do you bother getting up each day?
:)
 
We don't have to look into the future to see what happens when control measures are largely abandoned. We just have to look at South America where infections and deaths skyrocketed when they decided that enough was enough and gave up trying. Peru is a good example to look at.

Public health officials have been saying for well over a month that they expected infection rates would rise when the autumn arrived, kids went back to school, and people started moving around an interacting more.

However, the public health officials where I am have been saying that they think we can keep it under control, but it will be a constant battle over the winter, testing, tracking, tracing, and dialling control measures up and down as required.

We were supposed to have been spending the summer getting ready for this. Now we'll find out if our preparations were adequate.
All well and good but not answering my question. Your hypothesis is that COVID is dangerous enough to warrant the lockdown and other assorted measures with the economic and social damage they bring.

Is there anything that would cause you to reject your hypothesis and change your mind?
 
As well as the very obvious geographic factors, cultural and dietary factors, resulting in obesity (which you mentioned) and poorly controlled diabetes, as well as multi-generational families, are more likely to be significant than genetics.

Whilst this does not affect your argument, I am coming across a number of young people ( up to 22yrs old) who are bricking themselves because they have Sickle Cell Trait ( Heterozygous). They are on Ze vulnerable list they tell me.
 
Oh your just confusing me now.
Your agreeing that the lockdowns are urinating into a gale as a method of prevention.
Don't think herd immunity works.
Weren't you 'Go vaccine' before as well or am I confusing you with someone else?
And if so, Jesus why do you bother getting up each day?
:)

He is actually making some good points from an acceptable or better knowledge base in this thread. It would be good if such as he were allowed to develop arguments, particularly about Long Covid.

As @Ortolith implied, this has been a good thread and it would be nice to keep it civil.

Even more so because the situation is fluid and, if we are honest, none of us know the answer to this new situation, just educated guesses.
 
You keep mentioning about closing down the economy? Who is advocating closing down the economy?

Fair one, I'm getting hysterical.

Local lockdowns (which can cover >1 million people) and retarding significant portions of the economy (such as hospitality).

So delete "closing down the economy", insert "seriously damaging the economy and massively increasing public debt".
 
... is that there must be reasons / factors for those figures in the graph, that have nothing to do with racism or density of population.

  • Genetics
  • Obesity levels
  • Any others that we cannot talk about because of '' racism ''

Anyone mention Vitamin D?

The closer indigenous populations are to the equator, the darker their skin. The more north you go, the lighter your skin.

This is probably an evolutionary thing to do with the production of skin colour determining how much Vitamin D your body produces and levels of sunlight exposure.

A lack of vitamin D has been linked to respiratory illnesses.

I'm a bit dusky myself. "Yellow" my missis calls me, but I think that's a racial slur.

Edited to add; there's probably other variables as well; BAMEs may well do more 'public facing jobs', be poorer (linked to poorer health), etc.
 

So being a 'share', I take it this means that it shows the percentage of tests that is positive to remove the aspect of higher-testing-higher-positive-cases-found?

And the peak on the left is spring where most of the tests were done in medical settings because these people were very ill and testing was a scant resource.

And the slight incline on the right is now, where testing is more easily accessible and many of the positive cases could be asymptomatic and non-threatening; such as school children?

Am I right or wrong? I'm a Geordie and don't work with data on a regular basis.
 

JCC

War Hero
So being a 'share', I take it this means that it shows the percentage of tests that is positive to remove the aspect of higher-testing-higher-positive-cases-found?

And the peak on the left is spring where most of the tests were done in medical settings because these people were very ill and testing was a scant resource.

And the slight incline on the right is now, where testing is more easily accessible and many of the positive cases could be asymptomatic and non-threatening; such as school children?

Am I right or wrong? I'm a Geordie and don't work with data on a regular basis.

Seems like - the only thing I'd throw in is that we still have the problem of FPs on the right hand side of the graph.

Quoting from the article:-

'What possible excuse could there be for not including such important data in the UK Government's coronavirus dashboard? Is it because it doesn't look nearly so scary, and so is no good for inducing fear and compliance?

As it happens the positive rate has increased a bit during September, from 0.6% on August 26th to 1.2% on September 8th and 1.7% on September 22nd (the latest date for which we have data). That means it doubled in 13 days to begin with and since then, 14 days later, only increased by a further 42% (100% would be doubling again). So it initially doubled at around half the rate of the Government's "every seven days" and then slowed down, though did pick up again a bit in the past week (growing 30% between September 15th and September 22nd, a doubling time of around two and half weeks if it continues). This suggests the current level of growth is not exactly "exponential" and may already be beginning to peak. Of course, we will have to wait and see what comes of the latest rise. But the question at this point is why the Government is making a show of dubious projections of exponential growth from raw case data and not setting out the much less troubling reality.

Sunetra Gupta is clear about where things are headed.

Prof Gupta, who has argued that a large number of people could have already been exposed to the virus, said: "The fate of this virus is going to be principally determined by what fraction of the population is either immune or already has some for of resistance to it.
"The proof is in the pudding. It's a question of whether when infection rates rise, death rates will rise. We've seen a summer with very low infection rates despite quite a lot of mixing. So that indicates that there is a level of herd immunity in place."'
 
All well and good but not answering my question. Your hypothesis is that COVID is dangerous enough to warrant the lockdown and other assorted measures with the economic and social damage they bring.

Is there anything that would cause you to reject your hypothesis and change your mind?
The opinion world wide has been nearly universal that serious measures are needed to control the virus. Countries such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and others jumped on the problem right away and didn't let it get out of hand. Other countries didn't react until it was too late to do anything other than lockdown for a few weeks.

I don't know of any country however that hasn't seen a serious economic impact from the pandemic. There's no "choice" between economic damage and death. It's a choice between economic damage and large numbers of deaths or economic damage and small numbers of deaths.

This was debated some weeks ago on this thread using central bank data from Sweden (limited lockdown) and Denmark (full lockdown). Sweden had several times the death rate of Denmark but had no economic benefit from it. If anything they were doing worse economically than Denmark. So the end Sweden sacrificed thousands of lives but had nothing to show for it.

In short, you're presenting a false choice. The option of "give up 'x' number of lives in order to save 'y' amount of money" simply doesn't exist in any realistic way.

The only real option the world had to avoid this was for everyone to do what Taiwan did, but we didn't. We simply didn't take the problem seriously until it was undeniably in our faces.

A few weeks ago I viewed a public affairs that was recorded in early February. In this show business and economics experts were discussing what the major trends were going to be for 2020. Near the beginning of the show they concurred that the impact of COVID-19 on China might knock a few fractions of a percentage off global growth, and that was about it. They spent less than 5 minutes discussing the issue and then went on to what they thought would be far more significant matters. This was early February, while Taiwan had been furiously preparing for more than a month.

They say that opportunity knocks but once. It knocked at the beginning of January but we couldn't be bothered to answer the door. Our chance for any alternative passed us by then.
 
Whilst this does not affect your argument, I am coming across a number of young people ( up to 22yrs old) who are bricking themselves because they have Sickle Cell Trait ( Heterozygous). They are on Ze vulnerable list they tell me.
I'll admit there may be some genetic risk factors, but I doubt that they are the primary reason for the number of deaths in question. Geographic and cultural factors are probably far more predominant.
 
Quoting from the article:-

'What possible excuse could there be for not including such important data in the UK Government's coronavirus dashboard? Is it because it doesn't look nearly so scary, and so is no good for inducing fear and compliance?

Early on, it was pointed out by scientists that honesty around the pandemic was crucial to keeping the public on board.

Inflating death tolls (it was Carl Heneghan who got them reduced somewhat when he pointed out car crash victims were being included in the covid death count), lack of discussion around PCR tests and stuff like this undermine that trust.

Sometimes it feels like we're getting fed propaganda to scare us into compliance; I don't think using fear is a great strategy. I also think it's why I'm a fan of the Swedish approach; Anders Tegnell gives interviews and explains stuff in an honest and open way.

They just need to be honest and trust the British public.
 

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