We don't have to look into the future to see what happens when control measures are largely abandoned. We just have to look at South America where infections and deaths skyrocketed when they decided that enough was enough and gave up trying. Peru is a good example to look at.This is something else that's been bugging me. If there is a massive increase in deaths between now and February I will happily hold my hands up and admit I got it wrong. I get the feeling that if there is a massive spike in deaths you will (justifiably) say "I told you so" but if nothing much happens you will argue that it was the policies put in place that prevented those deaths.
Basically, I get the feeling that you and several other people on here are arguing a 'heads I win, tails you lose' situation. Is there anything that will make you change your mind and accept that COVID isn't as dangerous as you currently think?
Public health officials have been saying for well over a month that they expected infection rates would rise when the autumn arrived, kids went back to school, and people started moving around an interacting more.
However, the public health officials where I am have been saying that they think we can keep it under control, but it will be a constant battle over the winter, testing, tracking, tracing, and dialling control measures up and down as required.
We were supposed to have been spending the summer getting ready for this. Now we'll find out if our preparations were adequate.